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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 St Patrick's Athletic St Patrick's Athletic ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.02
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
St Patrick's Athletic win · Dundalk 0–4 St Patrick's Athletic
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3e89f8708821ba0e8cf6a773c9e6c5a8e3b2b9f7175b6aabe78257bb65d77c12",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4012,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2532,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3456,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.72,
"away_win_prob": 0.4012,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4012,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.323,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.678,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2532,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2532,
"fair_odds_away": 2.49,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.49,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.95,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.95,
"fair_odds_home": 2.89,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.89,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.66,
"home_win_prob": 0.3456,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3456,
"over_25_prob": 0.656,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.344
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"away_xg": 1.72,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0745,
"edge_gap": 0.0555,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4758,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.1,
"draw": 25.3,
"home": 34.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.1,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 2.49,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": -9.3,
"value_pct": -18.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 82.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 81.0,
"no_prob": 32.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 67.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 67.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.72,
"home_expected": 1.66,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Dundalk or Draw",
"prob": 59.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Dundalk or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"prob": 74.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"prob": 65.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Dundalk or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"pick_prob": 74.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.1,
"draw_pct": 25.3,
"home_pct": 34.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.38,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 65.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.38,
"under_prob": 34.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 19.7,
"implied_prob": 28.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Dundalk Win",
"model_prob": 34.6,
"odds": 3.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.58,
"draw": 24.64,
"home": 27.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 18:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 18:14:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Dundalk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.78,
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.64,
"gap_pp": 0.65,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.58,
"gap_pp": -7.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.13
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.0,
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 65.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.0,
"gap_pp": -8.6,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 34.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.46,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.64,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.24,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.2,
"ev": -0.3016,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.097,
"model_prob_pct": 9.7,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.66,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3467,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0329,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.5611,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.656,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3467,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.5611,
"model_prob": 0.656,
"p_final": 0.594
},
"p_final": 0.594,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0955,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.008,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3152,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.4389,
"model_prob": 0.344,
"p_final": 0.409
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1546,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.5,
"text": "+15.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2294,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.9,
"text": "-22.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1546,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 65.6,
"sort_key": 10289.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 34.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3496,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0315,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"market_prob": 0.5879,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.678,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2543,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.322,
"p_final": 0.3892
},
"p_final": 0.6194,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0645,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3496,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.5879,
"model_prob": 0.678,
"p_final": 0.6194
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2336,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.4,
"text": "-23.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0984,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0984,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 32.2,
"sort_key": 10088.56,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 67.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0991,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.9,
"text": "-9.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0245,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.5,
"text": "+2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1894,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"sort_key": 5219.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"alert_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.46,
"hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"market_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"model_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1546,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492761 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0991,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1894,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7272727272727273,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.46,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.72,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 27.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.66,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.72,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.66 \u00b7 Away xG 1.72 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +27%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"steam_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1546,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492761 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0991,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1894,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dundalk 1.66 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.72 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 40.1%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~47.6% implied",
"Market Steam: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2193 -7.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St Patrick\u0027s Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob": 34.56,
"label": "Dundalk",
"market_prob": 27.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.68,
"fair_prob": 25.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob": 40.12,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob": 47.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.77,
"fair_prob": 65.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.83,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.77,
"fair_prob": 34.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.17,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.93,
"fair_prob": 67.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.93,
"fair_prob": 32.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.12,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 47.58,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic\u0027s win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.1%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.5,
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 62,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Dundalk 1.66 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.72 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 40.1%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~47.6% implied",
"Market Steam: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2193 -7.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean St Patrick\u0027s Athletic with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.46,
"hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic odds shortened \u2193 -7.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (\u2193 -7.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/11) supports the current market view on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 40.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 40.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.78,
"edge_pp": 6.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.56,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Dundalk",
"market_prob_pct": 27.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.68,
"edge_pp": 0.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.64,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.46,
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.12,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 47.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (47.6%).",
"St Patrick\u0027s Athletic has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.0%, 8/11).",
"St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.5,
"closing_odds": 2.02,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.5,
"entry_odds": 2.02,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.9
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "8/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (7.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.15",
"2.08",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.27 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 33h 56m",
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.27"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.02,
2.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 8/11 sportsbooks on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/11",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_id": 3843,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3843.webp",
"away_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "2crmlSiChcZFaJ",
"away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492761,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Dundalk",
"home_team_id": 584,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/584.webp",
"home_team_name": "Dundalk",
"home_team_public_id": "0a2upjUKTk4mvU",
"home_team_slug": "dundalk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "dundalk",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0vAEjPe2hiU06t",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Dundalk",
"venue_name": "Oriel Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3997,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4758,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.2778
},
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"p_final": 0.446
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0019,
"ev": -0.0313,
"implied_prob": 0.2464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4758,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.2778
},
"model_prob": 0.253,
"p_final": 0.2484
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2694,
"best_odd": 3.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": 0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4758,
"draw": 0.2464,
"home": 0.2778
},
"model_prob": 0.3457,
"p_final": 0.2961
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.0938,
"ev": -0.1894,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.4013
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0134,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.253
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.46,
"edge": 0.0567,
"ev": 0.1963,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"model_prob": 0.3457
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2543,
"alpha_yes": 0.3496,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0893,
"edge_yes": 0.0893,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2336,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1283,
"ev_yes": 0.0984,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0275,
"implied_no": 0.4113,
"implied_yes": 0.5887,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2543,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.322,
"p_final": 0.3892
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3496,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.5879,
"model_prob": 0.678,
"p_final": 0.6194
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.3892,
"p_final_yes": 0.6194,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3467,
"alpha_under": 0.3152,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.24,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.135,
"edge_over": 0.0977,
"edge_under": -0.0977,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1546,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.008,
"ev_under": -0.2294,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"implied_over": 0.5583,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5611,
"implied_under": 0.4417,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4389,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3467,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.5611,
"model_prob": 0.656,
"p_final": 0.594
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3152,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.4389,
"model_prob": 0.344,
"p_final": 0.409
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.594,
"p_final_under": 0.409,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.38,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1546,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1963,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1546,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1546,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1963,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 40.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (40.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492761 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +15.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0991,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1894,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 27.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.678,
"draw_prob": 0.253,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4013,
"over_prob": 0.656,
"total_xg": 3.38,
"under_prob": 0.344,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Dundalk",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3496,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0315,
"market_prob": 0.5879,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.678,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2543,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0229,
"ev": -0.1283,
"implied_prob": 0.4121,
"model_prob": 0.322,
"p_final": 0.3892
},
"p_final": 0.6194,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0275,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3496,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.5879,
"model_prob": 0.678,
"p_final": 0.6194
}
},
"edge": 0.0893,
"ev": 0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"model_prob": 0.678,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3467,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0329,
"market_prob": 0.5611,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.656,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3467,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0329,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.5611,
"model_prob": 0.656,
"p_final": 0.594
},
"p_final": 0.594,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.008,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3152,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.4389,
"model_prob": 0.344,
"p_final": 0.409
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0977,
"ev": 0.1546,
"implied_prob": 0.5583,
"model_prob": 0.656,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492761,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1546,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4013,
"draw": 0.253,
"home": 0.3457
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.678,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0984,
"implied_prob": 0.5887,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.678,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"home": "Dundalk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.126772,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1546,
"implied_prob": 0.5583,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.656,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0991,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4013,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1894,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492761,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T19:19:14.050563+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
