Waterford vs Sligo Rovers Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2077,
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      "fair_odds_away": 6.55,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.82,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.56,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
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      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.336
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Sligo Rovers",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Waterford",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Sligo Rovers"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.09,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Waterford",
      "confidence": 64.0,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
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        "edge_gap": 0.4331,
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          "away": 15.2,
          "draw": 20.7,
          "home": 64.0
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        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Waterford"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.05
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      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
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        "best_odds": 2.05,
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        "prob_edge": 15.3,
        "value_pct": 31.4,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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    },
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        "away_played": 19,
        "away_score_rate": 66.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
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        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 90.3,
        "no_prob": 39.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 61.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 61.0
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.09,
        "home_expected": 2.33,
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 0,
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            "away": 1,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Waterford or Draw",
            "prob": 84.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Waterford or Sligo Rovers",
            "prob": 79.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sligo Rovers",
            "prob": 36.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
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      "match_winner": {
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "edge": 31.4,
        "implied_prob": 48.8,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Waterford Win",
        "model_prob": 64.1,
        "odds": 2.05
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Sligo Rovers",
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      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Waterford",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 46.92,
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          "model_pct": 15.25
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.84,
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          "model_pct": 66.4
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          "closing_implied_pct": 47.16,
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          "closing": 3.69,
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    "home_xg": 2.33,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "best_odds": 2.05,
      "confidence": "strong",
      "display_label": "Home Waterford",
      "edge": 15.2,
      "ev": 31.4,
      "probability": 64.0
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.255,
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          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 25.5,
          "text": "+25%+"
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    "market_intelligence": {
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        "alert_breadth": "14/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "14/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "alert_team": "Sligo Rovers",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "model_prob_pct": 64.0,
        "model_team": "Waterford",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
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          "edge_pp": 17.04,
          "fair_prob": 63.96,
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.25,
          "fair_prob": 20.77,
          "label": "Draw",
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.79,
          "fair_prob": 15.28,
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "outcome": "over"
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
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          "label": "BTTS Yes",
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.34,
          "fair_prob": 39.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 44.34,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 17.04,
        "fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Waterford",
        "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 17.04,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Waterford",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 46.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Waterford, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 17.04,
        "hero_label": "Waterford",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Sligo Rovers odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
          "note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
            "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Waterford more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Sligo Rovers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (14/14) supports the current market view on Sligo Rovers."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 17.04,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 43.2 pp (at 64.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 43.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 64.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 17.04,
            "fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Waterford",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.92,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.25,
            "fair_prob_pct": 20.77,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.02,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -10.79,
            "fair_prob_pct": 15.28,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Sligo Rovers",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.07,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Waterford (46.9%).",
          "However, Sligo Rovers has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +9.7%, 14/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Waterford, Market \u2192 Waterford, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sligo Rovers.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
        "closing_odds": 2.05,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
        "entry_odds": 2.05,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 14,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "14/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 9.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Sligo Rovers (9.7%, 14/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.69 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.40",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.69"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.40"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "14/14",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
        "open_odds": 3.1,
        "pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 17.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
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    },
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      "away_team_id": 3842,
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      "away_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
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      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 3845,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3845.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Waterford",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 357,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Waterford",
      "venue_name": "Regional Sports Centre"
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "score": 9.0
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "implied_yes": 0.5566,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_under": 0.4804,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "total_xg": 3.42,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
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          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "under_prob": 0.336,
          "xg_diff": 1.24
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        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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        "btts": {
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
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        "ou_2_5": {
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          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1492715,
      "match_regime": {
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        "actionable": true,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "probabilities": {
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      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
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        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
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        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "fixture_id": 1492715,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:10.103686+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}