St Patrick's Athletic vs Drogheda United Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "edb36673e83a089764abf428e321da78a819ddd97090aa92375e75c44f70b999",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.74,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0943,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.52,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.48,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1945,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 10.6,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.14,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.41,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.28,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7111,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.581,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.419
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : St Patrick\u0027s Athletic or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.74,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
      "confidence": 71.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "edge": 0.0354,
        "edge_gap": 0.5156,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6751,
        "model_prob": 0.7106,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 9.5,
          "draw": 19.5,
          "home": 71.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.42
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.42,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.48,
        "market_odds": 1.42,
        "model_odds": 1.41,
        "overround": 4.3,
        "prob_edge": 0.5,
        "value_pct": 0.7,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 19,
        "away_score_rate": 52.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 89.8,
        "no_prob": 52.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 52.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 48.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.74,
        "home_expected": 2.28,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 12.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 11.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic or Draw",
            "prob": 90.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic or Drogheda United",
            "prob": 80.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Drogheda United",
            "prob": 28.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 90.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 9.4,
        "draw_pct": 19.4,
        "home_pct": 71.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.02,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 58.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.02,
        "under_prob": 41.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 1.0,
        "implied_prob": 70.4,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic Win",
        "model_prob": 71.1,
        "odds": 1.42
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Drogheda United",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 67.51,
          "gap_pp": 3.54,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 71.06
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.75,
          "gap_pp": -1.26,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 19.49
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 11.73,
          "gap_pp": -2.28,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 9.45
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 51.42,
          "gap_pp": 6.68,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 58.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 48.58,
          "gap_pp": -6.68,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 41.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.42,
          "early": 1.42,
          "implied_closing_pct": 67.51,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 67.51,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.62,
          "early": 4.62,
          "implied_closing_pct": 20.75,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 20.75,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 8.17,
          "early": 8.17,
          "implied_closing_pct": 11.73,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 11.73,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.88,
          "early": 1.88,
          "implied_closing_pct": 51.42,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 51.42,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.99,
          "early": 1.99,
          "implied_closing_pct": 48.58,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 48.58,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 6.7,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 12.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.28,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0923,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 9.2,
          "text": "+9.2%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1536,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -15.4,
          "text": "-15.4%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0923,
        "over_prob": 58.1,
        "sort_key": 10233.07,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 41.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.09,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.0,
          "text": "-9.0%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.008,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 0.8,
          "text": "+0.8%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.008,
        "no_prob": 52.0,
        "sort_key": 5206.4,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 48.0
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0127,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -1.3,
          "text": "-1.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6751,
        "max_ev": -0.0127,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -1.3,
          "text": "-1.3%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.7106,
        "side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "sort_key": 1796.825,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 818.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 12.7
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "13/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -11.1%",
        "alert_team": "Drogheda United",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 3.6,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.6,
        "hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "market_prob_pct": 67.5,
        "market_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "model_prob_pct": 71.1,
        "model_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.6,
          "fair_prob": 71.11,
          "label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
          "market_prob": 67.51,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.3,
          "fair_prob": 19.45,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 20.75,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.3,
          "fair_prob": 9.43,
          "label": "Drogheda United",
          "market_prob": 11.73,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.01,
          "fair_prob": 58.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 52.09,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.01,
          "fair_prob": 41.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 47.91,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.46,
          "fair_prob": 48.0,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 45.54,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.46,
          "fair_prob": 52.0,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.46,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 3.6,
        "fair_prob_pct": 71.11,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "market_prob_pct": 67.51,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Drogheda United"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 3.6,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 67.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 71.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both identify St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.6,
        "hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Drogheda United odds shortened \u2193 -11.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Drogheda United, with odds shortening by 11.1%.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Drogheda United, with odds shortening by 11.1%.",
            "Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Drogheda United has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 11.1%.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Drogheda United."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 3.6,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 51.7 pp (at 71.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 51.7,
          "max_prob_pct": 71.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.6,
            "fair_prob_pct": 71.11,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
            "market_prob_pct": 67.51,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.3,
            "fair_prob_pct": 19.45,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 20.75,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.3,
            "fair_prob_pct": 9.43,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Drogheda United",
            "market_prob_pct": 11.73,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Buying interest on Drogheda United \u2014 odds shortened by 11.1%.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (67.5%).",
          "However, Drogheda United has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -11.1%, 13/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic, Market \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic, Recent sharp money \u2192 Drogheda United.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 70.42,
        "closing_odds": 1.42,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 70.42,
        "entry_odds": 1.42,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 13,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 8.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Drogheda United (11.1%, 13/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "9.70 \u2192 7.40 \u2192 8.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "9.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "7.40"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "8.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.9 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 9.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Drogheda United \u2193 -11.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Drogheda United \u2193 -11.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "current_odds": 8.0,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -11.1%",
        "open_odds": 9.0,
        "pick_team": "Drogheda United",
        "steam_score": 68,
        "steam_team_name": "Drogheda United",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3850,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3850.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Drogheda United",
      "country_code": "IE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
      "country_name": "Ireland",
      "fixture_id": 1492714,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Ireland",
      "home_team_id": 3843,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3843.webp",
      "home_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
      "league_country": "Ireland",
      "league_id": 357,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Dublin",
      "venue_name": "Richmond Park"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1932,
            "best_odd": 8.17,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0044,
            "ev": -0.0773,
            "implied_prob": 0.1173,
            "model_prob": 0.0945,
            "p_final": 0.1129
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1962,
            "best_odd": 4.62,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0025,
            "ev": -0.0527,
            "implied_prob": 0.2075,
            "model_prob": 0.1949,
            "p_final": 0.205
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5681,
            "best_odd": 1.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0201,
            "ev": -0.0127,
            "implied_prob": 0.6751,
            "model_prob": 0.7106,
            "p_final": 0.6953
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.75,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.1,
          "edge_no": -0.0246,
          "edge_yes": 0.0246,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.09,
          "ev_yes": 0.008,
          "implied_no": 0.5446,
          "implied_yes": 0.4554,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.88,
          "best_under_odd": 2.02,
          "edge_over": 0.0601,
          "edge_under": -0.0601,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0923,
          "ev_under": -0.1536,
          "implied_over": 0.5209,
          "implied_under": 0.4791,
          "n_bookmakers": 12,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.02,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0923,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.48,
          "draw_prob": 0.1949,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7106,
          "over_prob": 0.581,
          "total_xg": 3.02,
          "under_prob": 0.419,
          "xg_diff": 1.54
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0201,
          "ev": -0.0127,
          "implied_prob": 0.6751,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.7106,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0246,
          "ev": 0.008,
          "implied_prob": 0.4554,
          "model_prob": 0.48,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0601,
          "ev": 0.0923,
          "implied_prob": 0.5209,
          "model_prob": 0.581,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1492714,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0923,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0945,
        "draw": 0.1949,
        "home": 0.7106
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Drogheda United",
        "home": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.053626,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0923,
        "implied_prob": 0.5209,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.581,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1492714,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:08.358776+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}