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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 RB Bragantino Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · RB Bragantino 1–1 Mirassol
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "71862b7f6df740adc049f02303743e03592933057553fee86b207a9e54ca9f92",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.89,
"away_win_prob": 0.2593,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.575,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.426,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3323,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.86,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.01,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.45,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.4084,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.342,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.658
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : RB Bragantino or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "RB Bragantino"
},
"away_xg": 0.89,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "RB Bragantino",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1276,
"edge_gap": 0.076,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5359,
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 25.9,
"draw": 33.2,
"home": 40.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.81
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.78
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.76
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.75
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"odd": 1.75
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.75
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 1.75
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 1.73
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.81,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "RB Bragantino Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.87,
"market_odds": 1.75,
"model_odds": 2.45,
"overround": 6.4,
"prob_edge": -14.4,
"value_pct": -26.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 58.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 57.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.89,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "RB Bragantino or Draw",
"prob": 74.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "RB Bragantino or Mirassol",
"prob": 66.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mirassol",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "RB Bragantino or Draw",
"pick_prob": 74.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 25.9,
"draw_pct": 33.2,
"home_pct": 40.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "RB Bragantino"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.07,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 34.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.07,
"under_prob": 65.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.8,
"implied_prob": 24.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 33.2,
"odds": 4.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betfair",
"best_odds": 14.0,
"edge": 5.5,
"ev": 76.7,
"label": "0-0",
"probability": 12.6
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.1,
"ev": 0.2665,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.149,
"model_prob_pct": 14.9,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3838,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0777,
"edge_pp": 7.8,
"market_prob": 0.4555,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.658,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4222,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0855,
"ev": -0.2013,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.342,
"p_final": 0.459
},
"p_final": 0.5332,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3686,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.1091,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3838,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0777,
"ev": 0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.658,
"p_final": 0.5332
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3878,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -38.8,
"text": "-38.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4213,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4213,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 34.2,
"sort_key": 10529.17,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 65.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0546,
"edge_pp": 5.5,
"market_prob": 0.4459,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.575,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0546,
"ev": 0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"p_final": 0.5006
},
"p_final": 0.5006,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1931,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0387,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0601,
"ev": -0.1751,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.265,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2775,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.8,
"text": "-27.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.265,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 57.5,
"sort_key": 10238.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1712,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0161,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "RB Bragantino",
"sort_key": 5212.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"alert_team": "Mirassol",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "RB Bragantino",
"model_prob_pct": 40.8,
"model_team": "RB Bragantino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1712,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.89,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.18,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 0.89 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"steam_team": "Mirassol",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1712,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 1.18 xG vs Mirassol 0.89 \u2192 RB Bragantino 40.8%",
"Market Drift: Mirassol odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean RB Bragantino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.84,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 33.23,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.93,
"label": "Mirassol",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.23,
"fair_prob": 34.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.23,
"fair_prob": 65.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.08,
"fair_prob": 42.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.58,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.08,
"fair_prob": 57.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.42,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "RB Bragantino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.7,
"model_prob_pct": 40.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "RB Bragantino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 1.18 xG vs Mirassol 0.89 \u2192 RB Bragantino 40.8%",
"Market Drift: Mirassol odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean RB Bragantino with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Mirassol odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.6 pp (at 40.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.6,
"max_prob_pct": 40.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.23,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mirassol",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans RB Bragantino (40.8%).",
"Mirassol odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.6%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"RB Bragantino \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.05,
"entry_odds": 4.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Mirassol (5.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.62",
"4.50"
],
"display": "4.85 \u2192 3.77 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 54m",
"pick_team": "Mirassol",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.77"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on Mirassol",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Mirassol",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Mirassol",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Mirassol",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Mirassol",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mirassol",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mirassol",
"away_team_id": 7848,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7848.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mirassol",
"away_team_public_id": "10qabFBUElLG9L",
"away_team_slug": "mirassol",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492392,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_id": 794,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/794.webp",
"home_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_public_id": "08KQ5khCCE0NVe",
"home_team_slug": "rb-bragantino",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rb-bragantino",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-07 22:30:00",
"public_id": "36YcyK3WYa3blu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Braganza",
"venue_name": "Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1862,
"best_odd": 4.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2134,
"draw": 0.2514,
"home": 0.5352
},
"model_prob": 0.2592,
"p_final": 0.2219
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2636,
"best_odd": 3.725,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2514,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2134,
"draw": 0.2514,
"home": 0.5352
},
"model_prob": 0.3324,
"p_final": 0.2728
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4859,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0616,
"ev": -0.1712,
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2134,
"draw": 0.2514,
"home": 0.5352
},
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"p_final": 0.4736
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.85,
"edge": 0.053,
"ev": 0.2572,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"model_prob": 0.2592
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.0843,
"ev": 0.3396,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.3324
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.1441,
"ev": -0.2608,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.4084
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4234,
"alpha_yes": 0.4657,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1308,
"edge_yes": -0.1308,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.265,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0387,
"ev_yes": -0.2775,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1751,
"implied_no": 0.4442,
"implied_yes": 0.5558,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0546,
"ev": 0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"p_final": 0.5006
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0601,
"ev": -0.1751,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5006,
"p_final_yes": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4222,
"alpha_under": 0.3838,
"best_over_odd": 1.79,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.2023,
"edge_under": 0.2023,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3878,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.2013,
"ev_under": 0.4213,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.1091,
"implied_over": 0.5443,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5445,
"implied_under": 0.4557,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4555,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4222,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0855,
"ev": -0.2013,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.342,
"p_final": 0.459
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3838,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0777,
"ev": 0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.658,
"p_final": 0.5332
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.459,
"p_final_under": 0.5332,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.07,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4213,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4213,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4213,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4213,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 70,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates RB Bragantino at 40.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies RB Bragantino as the value side (40.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "RB Bragantino",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "70 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (RB Bragantino).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1712,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.425,
"draw_prob": 0.3324,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4084,
"over_prob": 0.342,
"total_xg": 2.07,
"under_prob": 0.658,
"xg_diff": 0.29
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0616,
"ev": -0.1712,
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "RB Bragantino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0546,
"market_prob": 0.4459,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.575,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4234,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": 0.0546,
"ev": 0.0387,
"implied_prob": 0.4459,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"p_final": 0.5006
},
"p_final": 0.5006,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0387,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4657,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0601,
"ev": -0.1751,
"implied_prob": 0.5541,
"model_prob": 0.425,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"edge": 0.1308,
"ev": 0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.4442,
"model_prob": 0.575,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3838,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0777,
"market_prob": 0.4555,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.658,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4222,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0855,
"ev": -0.2013,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.342,
"p_final": 0.459
},
"p_final": 0.5332,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.1091,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3838,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0777,
"ev": 0.1091,
"implied_prob": 0.4555,
"model_prob": 0.658,
"p_final": 0.5332
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2023,
"ev": 0.4213,
"implied_prob": 0.4557,
"model_prob": 0.658,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492392,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4213,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2592,
"draw": 0.3324,
"home": 0.4084
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.4442,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.575,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.4442,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.575,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mirassol",
"home": "RB Bragantino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.277215,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4213,
"implied_prob": 0.4557,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.658,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1712,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.75,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5352,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4084,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5714285714285714,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2853,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492392,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-07T19:19:09.938041+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie A de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 61 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 36 |
| 12 | Vitória | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 29 | 57 | 25 | +32 | 61 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Santos | 29 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 42 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 48 |
| 6 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 7 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 29 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 35 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineiro | 28 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 43 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 28 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 34 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 29 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 37 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 29 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 33 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 29 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 29 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 | Internacional | 29 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitória | 29 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 29 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Corinthians | 29 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 32 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 28 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 18 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 29 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 42 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 29 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 61 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 28 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 34 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 28 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 43 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 29 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 29 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 29 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 29 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 37 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 48 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 29 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 33 |
| 15 | Remo | 29 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 24 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 28 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 29 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 31 |
| 19 | Vitória | 29 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 29 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 30 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
