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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.39
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cruzeiro win · Vitória 1–3 Cruzeiro
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bfe1e450076019e37bf93aba8ae73636d10f64fbb198647e3c9ba43aa73c6dd9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.368,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.29,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.342,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.368,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.368,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.447,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.553,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.29,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.29,
"fair_odds_away": 2.72,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.72,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.45,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.92,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.342,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.342,
"over_25_prob": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.508
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Cruzeiro",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Cruzeiro"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cruzeiro",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0377,
"edge_gap": 0.0252,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.8,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.39
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.39,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cruzeiro Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.47,
"market_odds": 2.39,
"model_odds": 2.72,
"overround": 3.2,
"prob_edge": -5.1,
"value_pct": -12.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 44.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 55.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria or Draw",
"prob": 63.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria or Cruzeiro",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cruzeiro",
"prob": 65.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vit\u00f3ria or Cruzeiro",
"pick_prob": 71.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.8,
"draw_pct": 29.0,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Cruzeiro"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.64,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 49.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.64,
"under_prob": 50.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 4.0,
"implied_prob": 32.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Vit\u00f3ria Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.04
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cruzeiro",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.53,
"draw": 27.6,
"home": 31.87
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:59:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 18:30:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.87,
"gap_pp": 2.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.25
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.6,
"gap_pp": 1.39,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.99
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.53,
"gap_pp": -3.77,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.96,
"gap_pp": -3.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 49.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.04,
"gap_pp": 3.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 50.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.04,
"early": 3.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.87,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.51,
"early": 3.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.6,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.96,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.06,
"early": 2.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.04,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.5,
"ev": -0.1692,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.7,
"market_prob": 0.1493,
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4789,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"p_final": 0.4943,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0058,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0214,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4943
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.08,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0465,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0465,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 49.2,
"sort_key": 10041.85,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 50.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0695,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0103,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.0,
"text": "-1.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cruzeiro",
"sort_key": 1797.425,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0096,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.447,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"p_final": 0.4378
},
"p_final": 0.4378,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.039,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5612,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"p_final": 0.5613
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0166,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0765,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0166,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 44.7,
"sort_key": 1795.85,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 55.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"alert_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.73,
"hero_label": "Cruzeiro",
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"market_team": "Cruzeiro",
"model_prob_pct": 36.8,
"model_team": "Cruzeiro",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0465,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruzeiro at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruzeiro as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruzeiro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0695,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.73,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"steam_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0465,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruzeiro at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruzeiro as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruzeiro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0695,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vit\u00f3ria 1.32 xG vs Cruzeiro 1.32 \u2192 Cruzeiro 36.8%",
"Market: Cruzeiro ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Vit\u00f3ria odds \u2191 +14.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cruzeiro with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.33,
"fair_prob": 34.2,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"market_prob": 31.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob": 36.8,
"label": "Cruzeiro",
"market_prob": 40.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.01,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob": 55.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"fair_prob": 44.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.8,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cruzeiro",
"market_prob_pct": 40.53,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cruzeiro",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Cruzeiro \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vit\u00f3ria 1.32 xG vs Cruzeiro 1.32 \u2192 Cruzeiro 36.8%",
"Market: Cruzeiro ~40.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Vit\u00f3ria odds \u2191 +14.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cruzeiro with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.73,
"hero_label": "Cruzeiro",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Vit\u00f3ria odds lengthened \u2191 +14.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Vit\u00f3ria has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Vit\u00f3ria has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Vit\u00f3ria has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Vit\u00f3ria."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.6 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.6,
"max_prob_pct": 36.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Cruzeiro",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.33,
"edge_pp": 2.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"market_prob_pct": 31.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.4,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.73,
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cruzeiro",
"market_prob_pct": 40.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Vit\u00f3ria \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cruzeiro (40.5%).",
"Vit\u00f3ria odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.8%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Cruzeiro \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 41.84,
"closing_odds": 2.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 41.84,
"entry_odds": 2.39,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 160h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Vit\u00f3ria (14.8%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.90",
"2.70"
],
"display": "3.10 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 160h 2m",
"pick_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
3.04,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Vit\u00f3ria",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.8%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cruzeiro",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Cruzeiro",
"away_team_id": 135,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/135.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cruzeiro",
"away_team_public_id": "0Y6TvukakC91dB",
"away_team_slug": "cruzeiro",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492389,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"home_team_id": 136,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/136.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vit\u00f3ria",
"home_team_public_id": "3CAj4FsVRtGWcF",
"home_team_slug": "vitoria",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vitoria",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 19:00:00",
"public_id": "1H3OwLG3frL42c",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "El Salvador",
"venue_name": "Estadio Manoel Barradas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4246,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4053,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.3187
},
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"p_final": 0.3893
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2938,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4053,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.3187
},
"model_prob": 0.2899,
"p_final": 0.2801
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0103,
"implied_prob": 0.3187,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4053,
"draw": 0.276,
"home": 0.3187
},
"model_prob": 0.3425,
"p_final": 0.3256
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0508,
"ev": -0.1213,
"implied_prob": 0.4184,
"model_prob": 0.3677
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": 0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2899
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": 0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.3425
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5102,
"alpha_yes": 0.5612,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.017,
"edge_yes": -0.017,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0166,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0588,
"ev_yes": -0.0765,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"implied_no": 0.43,
"implied_yes": 0.57,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"p_final": 0.4378
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5612,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"p_final": 0.5613
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4378,
"p_final_yes": 0.5613,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5272,
"alpha_under": 0.5272,
"best_over_odd": 1.87,
"best_under_odd": 2.06,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0301,
"edge_under": 0.0301,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.08,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0796,
"ev_under": 0.0465,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0214,
"implied_over": 0.5221,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5211,
"implied_under": 0.4779,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4789,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4943
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5057,
"p_final_under": 0.4943,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.64,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0465,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0465,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0465,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruzeiro at 36.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruzeiro as the value side (36.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.8,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruzeiro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cruzeiro).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Some consensus value may remain, but Primary hard gates are not fully cleared.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0695,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.553,
"draw_prob": 0.2899,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3677,
"over_prob": 0.492,
"total_xg": 2.64,
"under_prob": 0.508,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0465,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cruzeiro"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0096,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.447,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5102,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"p_final": 0.4378
},
"p_final": 0.4378,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5612,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.553,
"p_final": 0.5613
}
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0166,
"implied_prob": 0.43,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4789,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5057
},
"p_final": 0.4943,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0214,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5272,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0214,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4943
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0301,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4779,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492389,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0465,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3677,
"draw": 0.2899,
"home": 0.3425
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cruzeiro",
"home": "Vit\u00f3ria"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0695,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3677,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.41841004184100417,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1212,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492389,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:45:13.158862+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie A de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Grêmio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
