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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Slavia Praha U19 Sparta Praha U19 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 1-6 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b91cccaad588a4fbefb80e5d7e9ee1ad395dfa9ef3dc64439aa0a2c29178d6d5",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3451,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2423,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4127,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.72,
"away_win_prob": 0.3451,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3451,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.293,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.707,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2423,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2423,
"fair_odds_away": 2.9,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.9,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.13,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.13,
"fair_odds_home": 2.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.42,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.88,
"home_win_prob": 0.4127,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4127,
"over_25_prob": 0.697,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.303
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sparta Praha U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sparta Praha U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.72,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Slavia Praha U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0093,
"edge_gap": 0.0684,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4224,
"model_prob": 0.4131,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.5,
"draw": 24.2,
"home": 41.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Slavia Praha U19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.37,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.42,
"overround": 11.1,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
"value_pct": -12.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 82.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 84.7,
"no_prob": 29.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 70.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 70.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.72,
"home_expected": 1.88,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Slavia Praha U19 or Draw",
"prob": 65.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Slavia Praha U19 or Sparta Praha U19",
"prob": 75.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sparta Praha U19",
"prob": 58.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Slavia Praha U19 or Sparta Praha U19",
"pick_prob": 75.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.5,
"draw_pct": 24.2,
"home_pct": 41.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Slavia Praha U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 69.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 69.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.6,
"under_prob": 30.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -12.0,
"implied_prob": 46.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Slavia Praha U19 Win",
"model_prob": 41.3,
"odds": 2.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.88,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.073,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.3,
"text": "-7.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0302,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0302,
"over_prob": 69.7,
"sort_key": 10027.18,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 30.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0624,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0385,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0385,
"no_prob": 29.3,
"sort_key": 1790.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 70.7
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.109,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.9,
"text": "-10.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"max_ev": -0.091,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.1,
"text": "-9.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4131,
"side_label": "Slavia Praha U19",
"sort_key": 1777.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 7995,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7995.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sparta Praha U19",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1490726,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_id": 7933,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7933.webp",
"home_team_name": "Slavia Praha U19",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_id": 668,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/668.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga U19",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-06 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4448,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.337,
"model_prob": 0.3448,
"p_final": 0.3404
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2993,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.2406,
"model_prob": 0.2421,
"p_final": 0.241
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4437,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"model_prob": 0.4131,
"p_final": 0.4183
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"edge_no": -0.0123,
"edge_yes": 0.0123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0624,
"ev_yes": -0.0385,
"implied_no": 0.3053,
"implied_yes": 0.6947,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.33,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"edge_over": -0.0054,
"edge_under": 0.0054,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.073,
"ev_under": 0.0302,
"implied_over": 0.7024,
"implied_under": 0.2976,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0302,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.707,
"draw_prob": 0.2421,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4131,
"over_prob": 0.697,
"total_xg": 3.6,
"under_prob": 0.303,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0302,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.303,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.303,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "under",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0041,
"ev": -0.109,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4131,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Slavia Praha U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.6947,
"model_prob": 0.707,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0054,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.303,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490726,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0302,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3448,
"draw": 0.2421,
"home": 0.4131
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sparta Praha U19",
"home": "Slavia Praha U19"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490726,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:21:27.296510+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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1. Liga U19 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hradec Králové U19 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Baník Ostrava U19 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Karviná U19 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 47 |
| 4 | Viktoria Plzeň U19 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno U19 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 6 | Slavia Praha U19 | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha U19 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 42 |
| 8 | Pardubice U19 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Mladá Boleslav U19 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 39 |
| 10 | Slovácko U19 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Dukla Praha U19 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 39 |
| 12 | České Budějovice U19 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 |
| 13 | Sigma Olomouc U19 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 35 |
| 14 | Zlín U19 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 15 | Slovan Liberec U19 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 16 | Vysočina Jihlava U19 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hradec Králové U19 | 28 | 70 | 35 | +35 | 60 |
| 2 | Slavia Praha U19 | 28 | 61 | 56 | +5 | 44 |
| 3 | Baník Ostrava U19 | 28 | 58 | 46 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 | České Budějovice U19 | 28 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 38 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň U19 | 28 | 54 | 45 | +9 | 45 |
| 6 | Karviná U19 | 29 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 47 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha U19 | 28 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 42 |
| 8 | Slovan Liberec U19 | 28 | 52 | 73 | -21 | 25 |
| 9 | Pardubice U19 | 28 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 39 |
| 10 | Mladá Boleslav U19 | 28 | 48 | 43 | +5 | 39 |
| 11 | Zlín U19 | 29 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 32 |
| 12 | Dukla Praha U19 | 28 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Zbrojovka Brno U19 | 28 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 45 |
| 14 | Slovácko U19 | 28 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 39 |
| 15 | Sigma Olomouc U19 | 28 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 35 |
| 16 | Vysočina Jihlava U19 | 28 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 17 |