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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.34
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
New York Red Bulls win · New York Red Bulls 3–2 Orlando City SC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c92f86ef9bd93e059dd0b6f8f94ce77897f81566ae88ad7c5b6e4c73d7cc8ae0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.1965,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.295,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.705,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2021,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.09,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.95,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.5,
"home_win_prob": 0.6014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.75,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.25
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : New York Red Bulls or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : New York Red Bulls",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"confidence": 60.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : New York Red Bulls",
"edge": 0.1883,
"edge_gap": 0.4,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4136,
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 19.6,
"draw": 20.2,
"home": 60.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.34
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.34,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "New York Red Bulls Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.42,
"market_odds": 2.34,
"model_odds": 1.66,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 17.5,
"value_pct": 41.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 17,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 91.8,
"no_prob": 29.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 70.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 70.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 2.5,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "New York Red Bulls or Draw",
"prob": 80.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "New York Red Bulls or Orlando City SC",
"prob": 79.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Orlando City SC",
"prob": 39.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "New York Red Bulls or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 19.7,
"draw_pct": 20.2,
"home_pct": 60.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.92,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 75.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 75.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.92,
"under_prob": 25.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 41.0,
"implied_prob": 42.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "New York Red Bulls Win",
"model_prob": 60.2,
"odds": 2.34
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Orlando City SC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.32,
"draw": 23.32,
"home": 41.36
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-01 23:29:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-01 23:01:45",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.36,
"gap_pp": 18.83,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 60.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.32,
"gap_pp": -3.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 20.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.32,
"gap_pp": -15.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 72.61,
"gap_pp": 2.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 75.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.39,
"gap_pp": -2.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 25.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.36,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.15,
"early": 4.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.32,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.74,
"early": 2.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.32,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.32,
"early": 1.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 72.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 72.61,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.39,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
}
},
"home_xg": 2.5,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.31,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home New York Red Bulls",
"edge": 16.9,
"ev": 39.2,
"probability": 60.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1101,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4084,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"sort_key": 10249.09,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 75.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 25.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 29.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 70.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.78,
"hero_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob_pct": 41.4,
"market_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"model_prob_pct": 60.1,
"model_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4084,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees New York Red Bulls at 60.2% vs market 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies New York Red Bulls as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York Red Bulls",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side New York Red Bulls \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490365 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4084,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 85% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.08"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "12/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9230769230769231,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (85%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 44,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.78,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.78,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.5,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.5,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.50 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +85%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4084,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees New York Red Bulls at 60.2% vs market 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies New York Red Bulls as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York Red Bulls",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side New York Red Bulls \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490365 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4084,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 85% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.08"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York Red Bulls 2.50 xG vs Orlando City SC 1.42 \u2192 New York Red Bulls 60.1%",
"Market: New York Red Bulls ~41.4% implied",
"Market Drift: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours New York Red Bulls, but the market has moved away from New York Red Bulls.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 18.78,
"fair_prob": 60.14,
"label": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob": 41.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.11,
"fair_prob": 20.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.67,
"fair_prob": 19.65,
"label": "Orlando City SC",
"market_prob": 35.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 75.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 70.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.14,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob_pct": 41.36,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates New York Red Bulls\u0027s win probability at 60.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 41.4%, a difference of 18.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.78,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.7,
"model_prob_pct": 60.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 44,
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 60,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: New York Red Bulls 2.50 xG vs Orlando City SC 1.42 \u2192 New York Red Bulls 60.1%",
"Market: New York Red Bulls ~41.4% implied",
"Market Drift: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours New York Red Bulls, but the market has moved away from New York Red Bulls.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.78,
"hero_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "New York Red Bulls odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on New York Red Bulls.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on New York Red Bulls.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors New York Red Bulls more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on New York Red Bulls (\u2191 +20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on New York Red Bulls."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.78,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 39.9 pp (at 60.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 39.9,
"max_prob_pct": 60.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.8,
"lead": "The model rates New York Red Bulls considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 18.78,
"edge_pp": 18.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 60.14,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "New York Red Bulls",
"market_prob_pct": 41.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.11,
"edge_pp": -3.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.32,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -15.67,
"edge_pp": -15.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orlando City SC",
"market_prob_pct": 35.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on New York Red Bulls.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers New York Red Bulls (41.4%).",
"However, New York Red Bulls has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 12/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 New York Red Bulls, Market \u2192 New York Red Bulls, while New York Red Bulls odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
"closing_odds": 2.34,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
"entry_odds": 2.34,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.7
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"12/13 books lengthened New York Red Bulls together (20.0% drift, score 66) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.40",
"2.20",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.40 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 131h 12m",
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.34,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.7 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: New York Red Bulls odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from New York Red Bulls while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "New York Red Bulls",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/13",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "New York Red Bulls",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Orlando City SC",
"away_team_id": 1598,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1598.webp",
"away_team_name": "Orlando City SC",
"away_team_slug": "orlando-city-sc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490365,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"home_team_id": 1602,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1602.webp",
"home_team_name": "New York Red Bulls",
"home_team_slug": "new-york-red-bulls",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-01 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Harrison",
"venue_name": "Sports Illustrated Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3441,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.054,
"ev": -0.1801,
"implied_prob": 0.3532,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3532,
"draw": 0.2332,
"home": 0.4136
},
"model_prob": 0.1963,
"p_final": 0.2992
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1906,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3532,
"draw": 0.2332,
"home": 0.4136
},
"model_prob": 0.2018,
"p_final": 0.2272
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3229,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0608,
"ev": 0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3532,
"draw": 0.2332,
"home": 0.4136
},
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"p_final": 0.4744
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.1687,
"ev": -0.4622,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.1963
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": -0.0391,
"ev": -0.1624,
"implied_prob": 0.241,
"model_prob": 0.2018
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.1745,
"ev": 0.4084,
"implied_prob": 0.4274,
"model_prob": 0.6019
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.92,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4084,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1101,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4084,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees New York Red Bulls at 60.2% vs market 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies New York Red Bulls as the stronger side (60.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "New York Red Bulls",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side New York Red Bulls \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.34 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +41% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490365 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.34 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"Decision strength: 4.1/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +41% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 44,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Low reliability",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from New York Red Bulls, but the model still strongly favours New York Red Bulls.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4084,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 85.2,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 85% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.08"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.705,
"draw_prob": 0.2018,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6019,
"over_prob": 0.75,
"total_xg": 3.92,
"under_prob": 0.25,
"xg_diff": 1.08
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0608,
"ev": 0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.705,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.75,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490365,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1101,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1963,
"draw": 0.2018,
"home": 0.6019
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Orlando City SC",
"home": "New York Red Bulls"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.079523,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "New York Red Bulls",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4136,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4273504273504274,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4084,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+40.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490365,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-01T23:29:28.862094+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Major League Soccer — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | San Diego | 27 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 27 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 27 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 27 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 27 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 32 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 45 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 27 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 47 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 27 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 31 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 35 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 32 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 21 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 36 |
