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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bélgica Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Bélgica 1–1 Egipto
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"main_pick_display": "Winner : B\u00e9lgica",
"percent_away": "22.8%",
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
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"key": "12",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
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"text": "-15.1%"
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"id": "1x2",
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"text": "+4.9%"
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"model_prob": 0.4971,
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"tier": "lean"
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "12/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"alert_team": "Egipto",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.69,
"hero_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 60.3,
"market_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"model_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_team": "B\u00e9lgica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob": 60.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
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{
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob": 27.6,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": 6.68,
"fair_prob": 22.8,
"label": "Egipto",
"market_prob": 16.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.94,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.94,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.34,
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"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.61,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.61,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.6,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 60.29,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Egipto"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 60.3,
"model_prob_pct": 49.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on B\u00e9lgica, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.69,
"hero_label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Egipto odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Egipto has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about B\u00e9lgica than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Egipto \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about B\u00e9lgica than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Egipto has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Egipto \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors B\u00e9lgica more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Egipto has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/14) supports the current market view on Egipto."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 10.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 22.0 pp (at 49.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 22.0,
"max_prob_pct": 49.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 49.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "B\u00e9lgica",
"market_prob_pct": 60.29,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.59,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Egipto",
"market_prob_pct": 16.12,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Egipto \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers B\u00e9lgica (60.3%).",
"However, Egipto has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +15.0%, 12/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 B\u00e9lgica, Market \u2192 B\u00e9lgica, Recent sharp money \u2192 Egipto.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.73,
"closing_odds": 1.62,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.73,
"entry_odds": 1.62,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 248h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"12/14 books synchronized on Egipto (15.0% steam, score 83) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "6.19 \u2192 4.60 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 248h 4m",
"pick_team": "Egipto",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.19"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Egipto \u2191 +15.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Egipto",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Egipto \u2191 +15.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Egipto",
"steam_score": 83,
"steam_team_name": "Egipto",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 32,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/32.webp",
"away_team_name": "Egipto",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1489377,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "B\u00e9lgica",
"home_team_id": 1,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1.webp",
"home_team_name": "B\u00e9lgica",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Mundial",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-15 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Seattle",
"venue_name": "Lumen Field"
},
"match_decision": {
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"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1801,
"best_odd": 6.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": 0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.1612,
"model_prob": 0.2276,
"p_final": 0.1731
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1882,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.2359,
"model_prob": 0.2753,
"p_final": 0.2433
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5048,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.6029,
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"p_final": 0.5495
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"edge_no": -0.0661,
"edge_yes": 0.0661,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1509,
"ev_yes": 0.082,
"implied_no": 0.5251,
"implied_yes": 0.4749,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.04,
"best_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": 0.0194,
"edge_under": -0.0194,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0322,
"ev_under": -0.0565,
"implied_over": 0.4866,
"implied_under": 0.5134,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.082,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2753,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4971,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.591
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0492,
"implied_prob": 0.1612,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2276,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Egipto",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.6029,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4971,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "B\u00e9lgica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0661,
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4749,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1489377,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.082,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2753,
"home": 0.4971
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Egipto",
"home": "B\u00e9lgica"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044362,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.082,
"implied_prob": 0.4749,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1489377,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:59:04.817069+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Copa Mundial — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | México | 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | +2.8 | 9 |
| 2 | Corea del Sur | 3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Sudáfrica | 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | -2.0 | 4 |
| 4 | República Checa | 3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 | 1 |
