Sigma Olomouc II vs Hodonín Statistics & Analysis

May 20, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Hodonín ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 06:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9645839

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Hodonín win · Sigma Olomouc II 0–1 Hodonín
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
      "away_win_prob": null,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.438,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.506,
      "prediction_confidence": "none",
      "under_25_prob": 0.494
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Hodon\u00edn",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Hodon\u00edn"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0104,
        "edge_gap": 0.092,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4072,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.6,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 41.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 28,
        "away_score_rate": 89.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 29,
        "home_score_rate": 82.8,
        "no_prob": 26.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 73.9,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 73.9
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.45,
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            "away": 1,
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            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.8
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.5
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        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Sigma Olomouc II or Draw",
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            "key": "12",
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            "prob": 55.0
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Hodon\u00edn",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 10.0,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.1,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.9,
        "over_prob": 59.9,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.9,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.1,
        "under_prob": 40.1
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Hodon\u00edn",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Sigma Olomouc II",
      "largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 2.97,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 40.72,
          "gap_pp": 1.04,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 26.28,
          "gap_pp": -0.61,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 33.0,
          "gap_pp": -0.43,
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      "movement": [
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          "implied_delta_pp": -2.97,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.95,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.33,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.74,
          "early": 2.92,
          "implied_closing_pct": 33.0,
          "implied_delta_pp": 2.02,
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        },
        {
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          "implied_delta_pp": -2.03,
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      "movement_negligible": false,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_yes": 0.1824,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1824,
        "no_prob": 26.1,
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
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        "ev": -0.0857,
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4072,
        "max_ev": -0.0857,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "side_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
        "sort_key": 1778.575,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 812.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.8
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 7297,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7297.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Hodon\u00edn",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
      "country_name": "Czech-Republic",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 8622,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8622.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Sigma Olomouc II",
      "league_country": "Czech-Republic",
      "league_id": 349,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/349.webp",
      "league_name": "Tercera Liga - MSFL de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-20 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.74,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0019,
            "ev": -0.1012,
            "implied_prob": 0.33,
            "model_prob": 0.3257,
            "p_final": 0.328
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2972,
            "best_odd": 3.44,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0018,
            "ev": -0.1022,
            "implied_prob": 0.2628,
            "model_prob": 0.2567,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_no": -0.1424,
          "edge_yes": 0.1424,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3736,
          "ev_yes": 0.1824,
          "implied_no": 0.4034,
          "implied_yes": 0.5966,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.68,
          "best_under_odd": 2.2,
          "edge_over": 0.0416,
          "edge_under": -0.0416,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0063,
          "ev_under": -0.1178,
          "implied_over": 0.5574,
          "implied_under": 0.4426,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1824,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.739,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.599,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.401,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0046,
          "ev": -0.0857,
          "implied_prob": 0.4072,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Sigma Olomouc II"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1424,
          "ev": 0.1824,
          "implied_prob": 0.5966,
          "model_prob": 0.739,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0416,
          "ev": 0.0063,
          "implied_prob": 0.5574,
          "model_prob": 0.599,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1487485,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1824,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Hodon\u00edn",
        "home": "Sigma Olomouc II"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.134794,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1824,
        "implied_prob": 0.5966,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.739,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1487485,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-20T18:23:36.121712+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Tercera Liga - MSFL de República Checa Tercera Liga - MSFL de República Checa — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Třinec 34 23 7 4 76
2 Hodonín 33 21 7 5 70
3 Sigma Olomouc II 34 19 6 10 62
4 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 19 4 10 61
5 Uničov 33 17 11 6 61
6 Frýdek-Místek 33 16 10 7 58
7 Vrchovina 33 16 7 10 55
8 Unie Hlubina 33 13 8 12 47
9 Vsetín 33 13 6 14 45
10 Zlín II 34 11 10 13 43
11 Vítkovice 33 11 7 15 40
12 Slovácko B 33 9 11 13 38
13 Polanka nad Odrou 34 9 8 17 35
14 Hranice 33 7 9 17 30
15 Blansko 33 9 3 21 30
16 Karviná II 33 7 8 18 29
17 Hlučín 33 6 7 20 25
18 Start Brno 33 4 12 18 24
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Třinec 34 75 27 +48 76
2 Hodonín 33 75 36 +39 70
3 Sigma Olomouc II 34 71 33 +38 62
4 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 67 46 +21 61
5 Vrchovina 33 63 49 +14 55
6 Zlín II 34 57 64 -7 43
7 Frýdek-Místek 33 52 37 +15 58
8 Uničov 33 52 41 +11 61
9 Unie Hlubina 33 51 47 +4 47
10 Vsetín 33 51 52 -1 45
11 Slovácko B 33 48 54 -6 38
12 Vítkovice 33 46 55 -9 40
13 Blansko 33 44 77 -33 30
14 Hlučín 33 39 72 -33 25
15 Karviná II 33 38 59 -21 29
16 Hranice 33 37 58 -21 30
17 Polanka nad Odrou 34 37 62 -25 35
18 Start Brno 33 32 66 -34 24