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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Uruguay W Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.86
AI Fair Odds
1.99
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Uruguay W 1–1 Venezuela Femenino
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 50.2%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 4.25,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.81,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.77,
"home_win_prob": 0.5024,
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"over_25_prob": 0.561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.439
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Venezuela Femenino",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Uruguay W",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Venezuela Femenino"
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"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Uruguay W",
"confidence": 50.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Uruguay W",
"edge": 0.268,
"edge_gap": 0.24,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
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"market_comparison": [
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],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
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"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": 24.3,
"value_pct": 94.0,
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"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 68.7,
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"home_played": 7,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"options": [
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"key": "12",
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{
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Uruguay W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 50.24
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{
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"gap_pp": -1.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
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{
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"gap_pp": -25.63,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 23.52
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.74,
"gap_pp": 10.36,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 56.1
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{
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"gap_pp": -10.36,
"kind": "ou_u",
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
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},
"home_xg": 1.77,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1669,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 16.7,
"text": "+16.7%"
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"ev_under": -0.2318,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.2,
"text": "-23.2%"
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 10300.21,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2054,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.5,
"text": "-20.5%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1563,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.6,
"text": "+15.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1563,
"no_prob": 41.6,
"sort_key": 10140.67,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 58.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0901,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"max_ev": 0.0901,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.0,
"text": "+9.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5024,
"side_label": "Uruguay W",
"sort_key": 10081.09,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Uruguay W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.81,
"hero_label": "Uruguay W",
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"market_team": "Venezuela Femenino",
"model_prob_pct": 50.2,
"model_team": "Uruguay W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 26.81,
"fair_prob": 50.24,
"label": "Uruguay W",
"market_prob": 23.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.17,
"fair_prob": 26.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.64,
"fair_prob": 23.52,
"label": "Venezuela Femenino",
"market_prob": 49.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.31,
"fair_prob": 56.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.31,
"fair_prob": 43.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.92,
"fair_prob": 58.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.92,
"fair_prob": 41.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 26.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Uruguay W",
"market_prob_pct": 23.43,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Uruguay W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 26.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Uruguay W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"model_prob_pct": 50.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Uruguay W, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 26.81,
"hero_label": "Uruguay W",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Uruguay W odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 26.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.0 pp (at 50.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 24.0,
"max_prob_pct": 50.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 26.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uruguay W",
"market_prob_pct": 23.43,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.41,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.52,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Venezuela Femenino",
"market_prob_pct": 49.16,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Venezuela Femenino (23.4%).",
"However, Uruguay W has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.4%, 8/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Uruguay W, Market \u2192 Venezuela Femenino, Recent sharp money \u2192 Uruguay W.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.91,
"closing_odds": 3.86,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.91,
"entry_odds": 3.86,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "8/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Uruguay W (11.4%, 8/11) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "6.45 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
"pick_team": "Uruguay W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Uruguay W \u2191 +11.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Uruguay W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Uruguay W \u2191 +11.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/11",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Uruguay W",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "Uruguay W",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 18264,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18264.webp",
"away_team_name": "Venezuela Femenino",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": null,
"fixture_id": 1483048,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_id": 16944,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16944.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uruguay W",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1206,
"league_logo": null,
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-09 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3693,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0947,
"ev": -0.2697,
"implied_prob": 0.4916,
"model_prob": 0.2352,
"p_final": 0.3969
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2947,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.2741,
"model_prob": 0.2624,
"p_final": 0.2706
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 3.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0481,
"ev": 0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"model_prob": 0.5024,
"p_final": 0.2824
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.98,
"edge_no": -0.0892,
"edge_yes": 0.0892,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2054,
"ev_yes": 0.1563,
"implied_no": 0.5052,
"implied_yes": 0.4948,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"edge_over": 0.1031,
"edge_under": -0.1031,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1669,
"ev_under": -0.2318,
"implied_over": 0.4579,
"implied_under": 0.5421,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1669,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.584,
"draw_prob": 0.2624,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5024,
"over_prob": 0.561,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"under_prob": 0.439,
"xg_diff": 0.61
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0481,
"ev": 0.0901,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5024,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Uruguay W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0892,
"ev": 0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1031,
"ev": 0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1483048,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1669,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2352,
"draw": 0.2624,
"home": 0.5024
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.584,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.4948,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.584,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Venezuela Femenino",
"home": "Uruguay W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.117039,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.4579,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.561,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1483048,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-09T19:59:09.920011+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia Femenina | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela Femenino | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela Femenino | 8 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Paraguay W | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Colombia Femenina | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Chile W | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ecuador W | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 |
