Uruguay W vs Venezuela W Statistics & Analysis

Jun 09, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.77
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 77%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uruguay W Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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      "away_win_prob": 0.2352,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.416,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.584,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.77,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5024,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.561,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.439
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Venezuela W",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Uruguay W",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Venezuela W"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.16,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Uruguay W",
      "confidence": 50.2,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Uruguay W",
        "edge": 0.268,
        "edge_gap": 0.24,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2343,
        "model_prob": 0.5024,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 23.5,
          "draw": 26.2,
          "home": 50.2
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Uruguay W"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.86
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 3.86,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 7,
        "away_score_rate": 68.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 1,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 7,
        "home_score_rate": 83.0,
        "no_prob": 41.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 58.4,
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          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 6.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Uruguay W or Draw",
            "prob": 76.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Uruguay W or Venezuela W",
            "prob": 73.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Venezuela W",
            "prob": 49.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Uruguay W or Draw",
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      },
      "match_winner": {
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      },
      "over_under": {
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      },
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        "model_prob": 50.3,
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Venezuela W",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Uruguay W",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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          "closing_implied_pct": 23.43,
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          "model_pct": 50.24
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.41,
          "gap_pp": -1.17,
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          "model_pct": 26.24
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 49.16,
          "gap_pp": -25.63,
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          "model_pct": 23.52
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 45.74,
          "gap_pp": 10.36,
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          "model_pct": 56.1
        },
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          "closing_implied_pct": 54.26,
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        }
      ],
      "movement": [
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          "early": 3.3,
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          "early": 1.84,
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      }
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    "home_xg": 1.77,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1669,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 16.7,
          "text": "+16.7%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2318,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -23.2,
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        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        },
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          "text": "+15.6%"
        },
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          "raw_pct": 9.0,
          "text": "+9.0%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.5024,
        "side_label": "Uruguay W",
        "sort_key": 10081.09,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 813.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.0
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
        "alert_team": "Uruguay W",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 26.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 26.81,
        "hero_label": "Uruguay W",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.4,
        "market_team": "Venezuela W",
        "model_prob_pct": 50.2,
        "model_team": "Uruguay W",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 63,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 26.81,
          "fair_prob": 50.24,
          "label": "Uruguay W",
          "market_prob": 23.43,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.17,
          "fair_prob": 26.24,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.41,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -25.64,
          "fair_prob": 23.52,
          "label": "Venezuela W",
          "market_prob": 49.16,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 10.31,
          "fair_prob": 56.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 45.79,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.31,
          "fair_prob": 43.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 54.21,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.92,
          "fair_prob": 58.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 49.48,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.92,
          "fair_prob": 41.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 50.52,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 26.81,
        "fair_prob_pct": 50.24,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Uruguay W",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.43,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Uruguay W"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 26.81,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Uruguay W",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 23.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 50.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Uruguay W, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 26.81,
        "hero_label": "Uruguay W",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Uruguay W odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 26.81,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.0 pp (at 50.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 24.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 50.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 26.81,
            "fair_prob_pct": 50.24,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Uruguay W",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.43,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.17,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.24,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.41,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -25.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 23.52,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Venezuela W",
            "market_prob_pct": 49.16,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Venezuela W (23.4%).",
          "However, Uruguay W has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.4%, 8/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Uruguay W, Market \u2192 Venezuela W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Uruguay W.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 25.91,
        "closing_odds": 3.86,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.91,
        "entry_odds": 3.86,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.4,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Uruguay W (11.4%, 8/11) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "6.45 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.90",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Uruguay W",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.45"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.90"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Uruguay W \u2191 +11.4% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Uruguay W",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Uruguay W \u2191 +11.4% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 63,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "current_odds": 3.9,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
        "open_odds": 3.5,
        "pick_team": "Uruguay W",
        "steam_score": 63,
        "steam_team_name": "Uruguay W",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 26.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 18264,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18264.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Venezuela W",
      "country_code": null,
      "country_flag": null,
      "country_name": null,
      "fixture_id": 1483048,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Uruguay",
      "home_team_id": 16944,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16944.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Uruguay W",
      "league_country": "World",
      "league_id": 1206,
      "league_logo": null,
      "league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-09 20:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3693,
            "best_odd": 1.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0947,
            "ev": -0.2697,
            "implied_prob": 0.4916,
            "model_prob": 0.2352,
            "p_final": 0.3969
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2947,
            "best_odd": 3.3,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0034,
            "ev": -0.1069,
            "implied_prob": 0.2741,
            "model_prob": 0.2624,
            "p_final": 0.2706
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1794,
            "best_odd": 3.86,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0481,
            "ev": 0.0901,
            "implied_prob": 0.2343,
            "model_prob": 0.5024,
            "p_final": 0.2824
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.91,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.98,
          "edge_no": -0.0892,
          "edge_yes": 0.0892,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2054,
          "ev_yes": 0.1563,
          "implied_no": 0.5052,
          "implied_yes": 0.4948,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.08,
          "best_under_odd": 1.75,
          "edge_over": 0.1031,
          "edge_under": -0.1031,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1669,
          "ev_under": -0.2318,
          "implied_over": 0.4579,
          "implied_under": 0.5421,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.93,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1669,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.584,
          "draw_prob": 0.2624,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5024,
          "over_prob": 0.561,
          "total_xg": 2.93,
          "under_prob": 0.439,
          "xg_diff": 0.61
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0481,
          "ev": 0.0901,
          "implied_prob": 0.2343,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5024,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Uruguay W"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0892,
          "ev": 0.1563,
          "implied_prob": 0.4948,
          "model_prob": 0.584,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1031,
          "ev": 0.1669,
          "implied_prob": 0.4579,
          "model_prob": 0.561,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1483048,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1669,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2352,
        "draw": 0.2624,
        "home": 0.5024
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1563,
        "implied_prob": 0.4948,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.584,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1563,
          "implied_prob": 0.4948,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.584,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Venezuela W",
        "home": "Uruguay W"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.117039,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1669,
        "implied_prob": 0.4579,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.561,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1483048,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-09T19:59:09.920011+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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