Ecuador W vs Argentina W Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.2202,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.423,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.578,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2587,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.54,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.87,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.92,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.81,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5211,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.561,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.439
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Argentina W and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Ecuador W",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Argentina W"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.12,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Ecuador W",
      "confidence": 52.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Ecuador W",
        "edge": 0.1841,
        "edge_gap": 0.2626,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.337,
        "model_prob": 0.5211,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 22.0,
          "draw": 25.9,
          "home": 52.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Ecuador W"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.67
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.67,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Ecuador W Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.97,
        "market_odds": 2.67,
        "model_odds": 1.92,
        "overround": 11.1,
        "prob_edge": 14.6,
        "value_pct": 39.1,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 7,
        "away_score_rate": 67.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 7,
        "home_score_rate": 83.6,
        "no_prob": 42.2,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 57.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 57.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.12,
        "home_expected": 1.81,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Ecuador W or Draw",
            "prob": 78.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Ecuador W or Argentina W",
            "prob": 74.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Argentina W",
            "prob": 47.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Ecuador W or Draw",
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 22.0,
        "draw_pct": 25.9,
        "home_pct": 52.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Ecuador W"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.93,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
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        "pick": "Over 2.5",
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        "under_prob": 43.9
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        "edge": 39.1,
        "implied_prob": 37.5,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Ecuador W Win",
        "model_prob": 52.1,
        "odds": 2.67
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Argentina W",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Ecuador W",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 33.7,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.12,
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          "model_pct": 25.85
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.18,
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          "model_pct": 22.04
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.26,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 59.74,
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.67,
          "early": 2.67,
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          "early": 3.09,
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        {
          "closing": 2.42,
          "early": 2.42,
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          "implied_early_pct": 37.18,
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        {
          "closing": 2.3,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 40.26,
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          "implied_early_pct": 59.74,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.81,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.3184,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 31.8,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.2932,
        "ev_under_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -29.3,
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          "text": "-22.4%"
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          "raw_pct": 15.6,
          "text": "+15.6%"
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          "raw_pct": 6.0,
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        "sort_key": 10053.91,
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "3/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "3/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
        "alert_team": "Ecuador W",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 18.4,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.41,
        "hero_label": "Ecuador W",
        "market_prob_pct": 33.7,
        "market_team": "Argentina W",
        "model_prob_pct": 52.1,
        "model_team": "Ecuador W",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 17,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 18.41,
          "fair_prob": 52.11,
          "label": "Ecuador W",
          "market_prob": 33.7,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.25,
          "fair_prob": 25.87,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.12,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.16,
          "fair_prob": 22.02,
          "label": "Argentina W",
          "market_prob": 37.18,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 14.7,
          "fair_prob": 56.1,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 41.4,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.7,
          "fair_prob": 43.9,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 58.6,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.73,
          "fair_prob": 57.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 48.07,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.73,
          "fair_prob": 42.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 51.93,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 18.41,
        "fair_prob_pct": 52.11,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Ecuador W",
        "market_prob_pct": 33.7,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Ecuador W"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.41,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Ecuador W",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 33.7,
          "model_prob_pct": 52.1,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Ecuador W, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.41,
        "hero_label": "Ecuador W",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Ecuador W odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador W.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador W.",
            "Confirmation remains limited (3/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Ecuador W more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Ecuador W (\u2193 -3.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (3/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 18.41,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.2 pp (at 52.1%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 26.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 52.1,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 18.41,
            "fair_prob_pct": 52.11,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ecuador W",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.7,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.25,
            "fair_prob_pct": 25.87,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.12,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -15.16,
            "fair_prob_pct": 22.02,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Argentina W",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.18,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Argentina W (33.7%).",
          "Ecuador W has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 3/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ecuador W, Market \u2192 Argentina W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Ecuador W.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 37.45,
        "closing_odds": 2.67,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 37.45,
        "entry_odds": 2.67,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 3,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "3/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 3.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Ecuador W (swing 2.85 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.62) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.85 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.62",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Ecuador W",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.85"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.62"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,6.8 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Ecuador W",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 17,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/11",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "Ecuador W",
        "steam_score": 17,
        "steam_team_name": "Ecuador W",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 18.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1782,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1782.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Argentina W",
      "country_code": null,
      "country_flag": null,
      "country_name": null,
      "fixture_id": 1483045,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
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      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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        "btts": {
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          "value_side": "yes"
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          "value_side": "over"
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      "match_id": 1483045,
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      "secondary_picks": [
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        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "fixture_id": 1483045,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-09T19:59:04.965831+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}