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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Colombia W Colombia W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e6c3a447f9a4e346718557015f20b0b6941766ae3691d668350c9e31d8be7f83",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"away_win_prob": 0.1845,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.442,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.558,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2476,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.42,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.04,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.76,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.91,
"home_win_prob": 0.5679,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.561,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.439
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Colombia W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Colombia W"
},
"away_xg": 1.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Colombia W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1212,
"edge_gap": 0.3206,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6893,
"model_prob": 0.5681,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.4,
"draw": 24.7,
"home": 56.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.31
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.31,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Colombia W Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.45,
"market_odds": 1.31,
"model_odds": 1.76,
"overround": 10.7,
"prob_edge": -19.5,
"value_pct": -25.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 85.2,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 55.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.02,
"home_expected": 1.91,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Colombia W or Draw",
"prob": 81.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Colombia W or Uruguay W",
"prob": 75.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Uruguay W",
"prob": 43.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Colombia W or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.4,
"draw_pct": 24.8,
"home_pct": 56.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Colombia W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.93,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 56.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.93,
"under_prob": 43.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 37.3,
"implied_prob": 13.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Uruguay W Win",
"model_prob": 18.4,
"odds": 7.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.91,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1558,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.6,
"text": "-15.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0658,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.6,
"text": "+6.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0658,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"sort_key": 10209.22,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 55.8
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0631,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0316,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.2,
"text": "+3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0316,
"over_prob": 56.1,
"sort_key": 10028.44,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.175,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.5,
"text": "-17.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6893,
"max_ev": -0.0114,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5681,
"side_label": "Colombia W",
"sort_key": 1797.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 16944,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16944.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uruguay W",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": null,
"fixture_id": 1483044,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_id": 1737,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1737.webp",
"home_team_name": "Colombia W",
"league_country": "World",
"league_id": 1206,
"league_logo": null,
"league_name": "CONMEBOL Nations League Women",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-05 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.181,
"best_odd": 7.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0114,
"implied_prob": 0.121,
"model_prob": 0.1845,
"p_final": 0.1325
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1827,
"best_odd": 4.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.1897,
"model_prob": 0.2475,
"p_final": 0.2002
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4909,
"best_odd": 1.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0595,
"ev": -0.175,
"implied_prob": 0.6893,
"model_prob": 0.5681,
"p_final": 0.6298
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"edge_no": -0.063,
"edge_yes": 0.063,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1558,
"ev_yes": 0.0658,
"implied_no": 0.505,
"implied_yes": 0.495,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.0075,
"edge_under": 0.0075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0631,
"ev_under": 0.0316,
"implied_over": 0.5685,
"implied_under": 0.4315,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0658,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.558,
"draw_prob": 0.2475,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5681,
"over_prob": 0.561,
"total_xg": 2.93,
"under_prob": 0.439,
"xg_diff": 0.89
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0595,
"ev": -0.175,
"implied_prob": 0.6893,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5681,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Colombia W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.063,
"ev": 0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.558,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0075,
"ev": 0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.439,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1483044,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0658,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1845,
"draw": 0.2475,
"home": 0.5681
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uruguay W",
"home": "Colombia W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036716,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.558,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1483044,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-05T19:59:09.650679+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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