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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 ASFB SONABEL ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
SONABEL win · SONABEL 2–0 ASFB
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : SONABEL or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "SONABEL"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "ASFB",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0201,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3976,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 53.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 53.6,
"no_prob": 71.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 71.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 28.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.9,
"home_expected": 0.85,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 17.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 15.6
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.0
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "ASFB or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "ASFB or SONABEL",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SONABEL",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "ASFB or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "ASFB"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 1.75,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 25.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 74.4,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 1.75,
"under_prob": 74.4
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 17.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0481,
"ev_yes": -0.2969,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0481,
"no_prob": 71.3,
"sort_key": 10043.29,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 28.7
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.168,
"ev_under": -0.0105,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 25.6,
"sort_key": 1797.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 74.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0857,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3976,
"max_ev": -0.0558,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "ASFB",
"sort_key": 1786.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 832.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-0",
"top_prob": 17.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8111,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8111.webp",
"away_team_name": "SONABEL",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bf.svg",
"country_name": "Burkina-Faso",
"fixture_id": 1469495,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 8564,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8564.webp",
"home_team_name": "ASFB",
"league_country": "Burkina-Faso",
"league_id": 423,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/423.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 de Burkina Faso",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2754,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0558,
"implied_prob": 0.2711,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.2861
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3996,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.186,
"implied_prob": 0.3313,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.3015
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4365,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.3976,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4064
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.47,
"best_yes_odd": 2.45,
"edge_no": 0.0876,
"edge_yes": -0.0876,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0481,
"ev_yes": -0.2969,
"implied_no": 0.6254,
"implied_yes": 0.3746,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": -0.0356,
"edge_under": 0.0356,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.168,
"ev_under": -0.0105,
"implied_over": 0.2916,
"implied_under": 0.7084,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0481,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.256,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.744,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0481,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6254,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.713,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.3976,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "ASFB"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0876,
"ev": 0.0481,
"implied_prob": 0.6254,
"model_prob": 0.713,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0105,
"implied_prob": 0.7084,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1469495,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0481,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SONABEL",
"home": "ASFB"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1469495,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T16:00:35.004488+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 de Burkina Faso — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahimo | 29 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 68 |
| 2 | USFA | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 46 |
| 3 | Sporting Cascades | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 4 | Douanes | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 5 | Majestic | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 43 |
| 6 | ASFA-Yennenga | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | ASFB | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 37 |
| 8 | Salitas | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 37 |
| 9 | CFFEB | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 37 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Réal du Faso | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | RCK | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 13 | SONABEL | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 33 |
| 14 | Etoile Filante | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 15 | RC Bobo-Dioulasso | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 27 |
| 16 | AJEB | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahimo | 29 | 47 | 15 | +32 | 68 |
| 2 | USFA | 29 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 46 |
| 3 | Douanes | 29 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 43 |
| 4 | Majestic | 29 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 43 |
| 5 | Salitas | 29 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 37 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 29 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | ASFA-Yennenga | 29 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 38 |
| 8 | RCK | 29 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 35 |
| 9 | Sporting Cascades | 29 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 43 |
| 10 | CFFEB | 29 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | ASFB | 29 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 37 |
| 12 | SONABEL | 29 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 33 |
| 13 | AJEB | 29 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 23 |
| 14 | Etoile Filante | 29 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 32 |
| 15 | Réal du Faso | 29 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 36 |
| 16 | RC Bobo-Dioulasso | 29 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 27 |
