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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Ternana U19 Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 2-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Ternana U19 2–2 Pescara Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Pescara Sub-19 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Pescara Sub-19"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ternana U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0638,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 25.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 29,
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"no_prob": 25.7,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "stats",
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.1
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "avg"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Ternana U19 or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ternana U19 or Pescara Sub-19",
"prob": 55.0
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pescara Sub-19",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Pescara Sub-19",
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"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.2,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
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"over_prob": 62.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.2,
"under_prob": 38.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3087,
"ev_yes": 0.1145,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 25.7,
"sort_key": 10253.05,
"tier": "best",
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{
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"ev_over": -0.0018,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"ev": -0.0163,
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Ternana U19",
"sort_key": 1795.925,
"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 15673,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15673.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pescara Sub-19",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1468074,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 17730,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/17730.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ternana U19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato Primavera - 2",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4032,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.395,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3671
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2975,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.2511,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2528
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4069,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
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},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.69,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": -0.0997,
"edge_yes": 0.0997,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_yes": 0.1145,
"implied_no": 0.3567,
"implied_yes": 0.6433,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 2.51,
"edge_over": 0.0027,
"edge_under": -0.0027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0018,
"ev_under": -0.0462,
"implied_over": 0.6173,
"implied_under": 0.3827,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1145,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2567,
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"over_prob": 0.62,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.38,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.026,
"ev": -0.0163,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"max_ev_side": "home",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ternana U19"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0997,
"ev": 0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.6433,
"model_prob": 0.743,
"side": "yes",
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},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.6173,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1468074,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1145,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pescara Sub-19",
"home": "Ternana U19"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1145,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.743,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1468074,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T12:59:32.247659+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como U19 | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 61 |
| 2 | Lecco Sub-19 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Modena Sub-19 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 4 | AlbinoLeffe U19 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 5 | Reggiana Sub-19 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Pro Vercelli Sub-19 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Virtus Entella Sub-19 | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Sampdoria Sub-19 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | Vicenza Sub-19 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 10 | Sudtirol Sub-19 | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 11 | Udinese U20 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 12 | Cittadella Sub-19 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 13 | Renate Sub-19 | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 33 |
| 14 | FeralpiSalò U19 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 30 |
| 15 | Venezia Sub-19 | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 |
| 16 | Padova Sub-19 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lecco Sub-19 | 30 | 65 | 50 | +15 | 60 |
| 2 | Como U19 | 30 | 58 | 31 | +27 | 61 |
| 3 | Reggiana Sub-19 | 30 | 58 | 44 | +14 | 46 |
| 4 | Sampdoria Sub-19 | 30 | 57 | 48 | +9 | 41 |
| 5 | AlbinoLeffe U19 | 30 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 47 |
| 6 | Modena Sub-19 | 30 | 55 | 38 | +17 | 55 |
| 7 | Udinese U20 | 30 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 36 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella Sub-19 | 30 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
| 9 | Vicenza Sub-19 | 30 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Pro Vercelli Sub-19 | 30 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
| 11 | Cittadella Sub-19 | 30 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Sudtirol Sub-19 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 37 |
| 13 | Renate Sub-19 | 30 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Padova Sub-19 | 30 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 25 |
| 15 | Venezia Sub-19 | 30 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 16 | FeralpiSalò U19 | 30 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
