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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Mtibwa Sugar Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Mtibwa Sugar 0–0 KMC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "53c22f792280bfa3d835c37572ef6f82cffc13938e9a0d55cca62015696addfa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or KMC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "KMC"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Mtibwa Sugar",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0268,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4445,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 36.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 54.5,
"no_prob": 80.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 80.2,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 19.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.9,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.5
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Mtibwa Sugar or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Mtibwa Sugar or KMC",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or KMC",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or KMC",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.05,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 33.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.3,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.05,
"under_prob": 66.3
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "KMC",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Mtibwa Sugar",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.45,
"gap_pp": -2.68,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
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"kind": "1x2_d",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.36,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.77,
"gap_pp": -2.07,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.65,
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"implied_closing_pct": 24.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.55,
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"implied_closing_pct": 35.77,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3233,
"ev_yes": -0.5743,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3233,
"no_prob": 80.2,
"sort_key": 10440.97,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 19.8
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"ev_over": -0.1407,
"ev_under": -0.0055,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 33.7,
"sort_key": 1798.625,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 66.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1342,
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4445,
"max_ev": -0.0322,
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"side_label": "Mtibwa Sugar",
"sort_key": 1791.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8061,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8061.webp",
"away_team_name": "KMC",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tz.svg",
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"fixture_id": 1457771,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 12195,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12195.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mtibwa Sugar",
"league_country": "Tanzania",
"league_id": 567,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/567.webp",
"league_name": "Ligi Kuu Bara",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-14 11:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2631,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.2436,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.2652
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4127,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.176,
"implied_prob": 0.3119,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2891
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4319,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1342,
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}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"edge_no": 0.2324,
"edge_yes": -0.2324,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3233,
"ev_yes": -0.5743,
"implied_no": 0.5696,
"implied_yes": 0.4304,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.55,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": -0.0323,
"edge_under": 0.0323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1407,
"ev_under": -0.0055,
"implied_over": 0.3693,
"implied_under": 0.6307,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3233,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.198,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.337,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.663,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0116,
"ev": -0.1342,
"implied_prob": 0.4445,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mtibwa Sugar"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2324,
"ev": 0.3233,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.802,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": -0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.6307,
"model_prob": 0.663,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1457771,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3233,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "KMC",
"home": "Mtibwa Sugar"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3233,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.802,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1457771,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-14T10:59:04.495325+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligi Kuu Bara — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba SC | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Fountain Gate | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 5 | Kitayosce | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 33 |
| 12 | Singida Big Stars | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 27 |
| 16 | KMC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 9 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 71 | 9 | +62 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba SC | 30 | 54 | 11 | +43 | 73 |
| 3 | Singida Fountain Gate | 30 | 47 | 35 | +12 | 50 |
| 4 | Azam FC | 30 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 64 |
| 5 | Kitayosce | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 43 |
| 6 | Pamba Jiji | 30 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 36 |
| 7 | Coastal Union | 30 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 36 |
| 8 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | Namungo | 30 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 34 |
| 10 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 35 |
| 11 | Singida Big Stars | 30 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 33 |
| 12 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Mbeya City | 30 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 30 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | KMC | 30 | 16 | 53 | -37 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashujaa | 30 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 33 |
