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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sevlievo Sevlievo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.55
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sevlievo win · Sevlievo 3–2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sevlievo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0654,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 25.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
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"home_played": 31,
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"no_prob": 60.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 60.7,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 39.3
},
"correct_score": {
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"home_expected": 0.85,
"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sevlievo or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sevlievo or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.25,
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"confidence": "medium",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.9,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.25,
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},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"closing_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sevlievo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
"closing": 2.51,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.01,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
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"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
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{
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.8
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1533,
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"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 60.7,
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"tier": "best",
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{
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 8530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1451952,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 5024,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5024.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sevlievo",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_id": 173,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/173.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev": -0.1363,
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"home": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
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"edge": 0.0265,
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},
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"edge_no": 0.1224,
"edge_yes": -0.1224,
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"implied_no": 0.4846,
"implied_yes": 0.5154,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": -0.0677,
"edge_under": 0.0677,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1985,
"ev_under": 0.0536,
"implied_over": 0.4587,
"implied_under": 0.5413,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1533,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2567,
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"over_prob": 0.391,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.609,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.0265,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.3523,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sevlievo"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.1224,
"ev": 0.1533,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"model_prob": 0.607,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0677,
"ev": 0.0536,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1451952,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1533,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
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"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.5413,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.609,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.0536,
"implied_prob": 0.5413,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.609,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas",
"home": "Sevlievo"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1533,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.607,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1451952,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:09:34.416959+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda Liga de Bulgaria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 66 |
| 2 | Yantra 2019 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 61 |
| 3 | Fratria | 31 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 60 |
| 4 | Vihren | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia II | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 52 |
| 6 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 46 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Hebar 1918 | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 40 |
| 9 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Ludogorets II | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 38 |
| 11 | Marek | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 38 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 35 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 |
| 14 | Sportist Svoge | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 31 |
| 15 | Minyor Pernik | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 30 |
| 16 | Sevlievo | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 17 | Belasitsa | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 32 | 59 | 34 | +25 | 58 |
| 2 | Fratria | 31 | 58 | 29 | +29 | 60 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 31 | 54 | 32 | +22 | 52 |
| 4 | Dunav Ruse | 31 | 51 | 15 | +36 | 66 |
| 5 | Yantra 2019 | 31 | 42 | 23 | +19 | 61 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 31 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 40 |
| 7 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 31 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 44 |
| 8 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 31 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Ludogorets II | 31 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 10 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 31 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Spartak Pleven | 31 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 35 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 31 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 33 |
| 13 | Minyor Pernik | 31 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Sportist Svoge | 31 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 31 |
| 15 | Marek | 31 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 | Sevlievo | 31 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 29 |
| 17 | Belasitsa | 31 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 19 |
