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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Leicesterfield Cape Town City ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.5
AI Fair Odds
2.39
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cape Town City win · Leicesterfield 2–4 Cape Town City
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Cape Town City and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Cape Town City"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
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"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 29,
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"no_prob": 60.0,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "stats",
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"correct_score": {
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{
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"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
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{
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"home": 0,
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{
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"label": "1-0",
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"source": "avg"
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"pick_key": "X2",
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"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
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"confidence": "high",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Leicesterfield",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.36,
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"movement": [
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Leicesterfield",
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"tier": "best"
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{
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{
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"tier": "lean",
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 2697,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2697.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cape Town City",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
"country_name": "South-Africa",
"fixture_id": 1446463,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 26434,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26434.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leicesterfield",
"league_country": "South-Africa",
"league_id": 289,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/289.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Sud\u00e1frica",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 1.5,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev": -0.2305,
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev": -0.0737,
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"home": {
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"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"edge_no": 0.0226,
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"ev_available": true,
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"implied_no": 0.5774,
"implied_yes": 0.4226,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": -0.0804,
"edge_under": 0.0804,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2125,
"ev_under": 0.079,
"implied_over": 0.4304,
"implied_under": 0.5696,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.126,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"over_prob": 0.35,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.65,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.0324,
"ev": 0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.1414,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Leicesterfield"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.6,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"side": "under",
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}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.126,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.079,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.65,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cape Town City",
"home": "Leicesterfield"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.126,
"implied_prob": 0.1414,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Leicesterfield",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1446463,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T12:59:53.199166+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Sudáfrica — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger United | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 62 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 54 |
| 3 | Milford FC | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 4 | Casric Stars | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 5 | Hungry Lions | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 6 | Highbury FC | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 7 | Upington City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Venda FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | The Bees | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 |
| 11 | Universidad de Pretoria | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 35 |
| 12 | Leicesterfield | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 13 | Gomora United FC | 30 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 33 |
| 14 | Midlands Wanderers | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 15 | Black Leopards | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 16 | Baroka FC | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger United | 30 | 50 | 34 | +16 | 62 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 52 |
| 3 | Cape Town City | 30 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 54 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 30 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 52 |
| 5 | Milford FC | 30 | 40 | 24 | +16 | 54 |
| 6 | The Bees | 30 | 37 | 36 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Universidad de Pretoria | 30 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Lerumo Lions | 30 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Upington City | 30 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 39 |
| 10 | Highbury FC | 30 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 42 |
| 11 | Gomora United FC | 30 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 33 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 30 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 33 |
| 13 | Black Leopards | 30 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Leicesterfield | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Venda FC | 30 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 36 |
| 16 | Baroka FC | 30 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 20 |
