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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Hoogeveen Hoogeveen ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "534ebed96b6e50f891d8a87fdedb4b351d3a5de00ec22fc9b72e314acea967f9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or SC Genemuiden",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "SC Genemuiden"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hoogeveen",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1456,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2721,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 78.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 42.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.85,
"home_expected": 1.5,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 6.5
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hoogeveen or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hoogeveen or SC Genemuiden",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SC Genemuiden",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or SC Genemuiden",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.35,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 65.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 65.1,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.35,
"under_prob": 34.9
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1187,
"ev_yes": -0.1577,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1187,
"no_prob": 42.7,
"sort_key": 10256.83,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.3
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0097,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"max_ev": 0.0097,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Hoogeveen",
"sort_key": 5207.76,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0691,
"ev_under": -0.0403,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0403,
"over_prob": 65.1,
"sort_key": 1789.925,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 34.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1273,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1273.webp",
"away_team_name": "SC Genemuiden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/nl.svg",
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"fixture_id": 1438147,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 14235,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14235.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hoogeveen",
"league_country": "Netherlands",
"league_id": 92,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/92.webp",
"league_name": "Derde Divisie - Saturday",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4447,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0768,
"ev": -0.2413,
"implied_prob": 0.4983,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.4215
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.23,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2377
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2344,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.306
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.62,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"edge_no": 0.0668,
"edge_yes": -0.0668,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1187,
"ev_yes": -0.1577,
"implied_no": 0.3602,
"implied_yes": 0.6398,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.43,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"edge_over": 0.0066,
"edge_under": -0.0066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0691,
"ev_under": -0.0403,
"implied_over": 0.6444,
"implied_under": 0.3556,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1187,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.573,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.651,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.349,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.2718,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hoogeveen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0668,
"ev": 0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.3602,
"model_prob": 0.427,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0403,
"implied_prob": 0.3556,
"model_prob": 0.349,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1438147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1187,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SC Genemuiden",
"home": "Hoogeveen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050685,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.3602,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.427,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1438147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:21:56.942130+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Derde Divisie - Saturday — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROHDA Raalte | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 67 |
| 2 | ADO '20 | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 60 |
| 3 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 59 |
| 4 | Sparta Nijkerk | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 58 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 56 |
| 6 | Staphorst | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 51 |
| 7 | Eemdijk | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 |
| 8 | Dovo | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 |
| 9 | Harkemase Boys | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 49 |
| 10 | VV Scherpenzeel | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 48 |
| 11 | Sportlust '46 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 47 |
| 12 | Hoogeveen | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 45 |
| 13 | Hercules | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 43 |
| 14 | Huizen | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 40 |
| 15 | TEC | 33 | 12 | 3 | 18 | 39 |
| 16 | Excelsior '31 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 37 |
| 17 | URK | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 33 |
| 18 | Hsc 21 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 6 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Nijkerk | 33 | 81 | 42 | +39 | 58 |
| 2 | Eemdijk | 33 | 67 | 56 | +11 | 50 |
| 3 | ROHDA Raalte | 33 | 62 | 34 | +28 | 67 |
| 4 | Staphorst | 33 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 51 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 33 | 60 | 50 | +10 | 56 |
| 6 | URK | 33 | 60 | 94 | -34 | 33 |
| 7 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 33 | 58 | 39 | +19 | 59 |
| 8 | VV Scherpenzeel | 33 | 55 | 45 | +10 | 48 |
| 9 | Sportlust '46 | 33 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 47 |
| 10 | Hercules | 33 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Dovo | 33 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 49 |
| 12 | Harkemase Boys | 33 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 49 |
| 13 | Hoogeveen | 33 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 45 |
| 14 | Huizen | 33 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 40 |
| 15 | TEC | 33 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 39 |
| 16 | Excelsior '31 | 33 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 37 |
| 17 | ADO '20 | 33 | 46 | 35 | +11 | 60 |
| 18 | Hsc 21 | 33 | 30 | 105 | -75 | 6 |
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