Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.46,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4423,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.477,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2941,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.26,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.79,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.08,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2636,
      "over_25_prob": 0.466,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.534
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Al Kholood or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Al Kholood"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.46,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Fateh",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0775,
        "edge_gap": 0.1483,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3648,
        "model_prob": 0.4423,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 44.2,
          "draw": 29.4,
          "home": 26.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.61
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.61,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Fateh Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.74,
        "market_odds": 2.61,
        "model_odds": 2.26,
        "overround": 5.0,
        "prob_edge": 5.9,
        "value_pct": 15.5,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 76.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 14,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 66.0,
        "no_prob": 47.7,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 52.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 52.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.46,
        "home_expected": 1.08,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 11.5
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          {
            "away": 2,
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            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.1
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.5
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al Kholood or Draw",
            "prob": 55.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al Kholood or Al-Fateh",
            "prob": 70.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al-Fateh",
            "prob": 73.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Al-Fateh",
        "pick_prob": 73.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 44.2,
        "draw_pct": 29.4,
        "home_pct": 26.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Al-Fateh"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.54,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 46.6,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 53.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.54,
        "under_prob": 53.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 15.5,
        "implied_prob": 38.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Al-Fateh Win",
        "model_prob": 44.2,
        "odds": 2.61
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Al-Fateh",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Al Kholood",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 39.18,
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          "model_pct": 26.37
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.35,
          "gap_pp": 5.05,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.48,
          "gap_pp": 7.75,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 44.23
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 61.25,
          "gap_pp": -14.65,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 46.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 38.75,
          "gap_pp": 14.65,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 53.4
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.43,
          "early": 2.43,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.91,
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          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 2.61,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.55,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.45,
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          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.08,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_no": 0.2545,
        "ev_yes": -0.2155,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
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      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0325,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3648,
        "max_ev": 0.0325,
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        "side_label": "Al-Fateh",
        "sort_key": 10029.25,
        "tier": "best"
      },
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.2,
        "tier": "risk",
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2931,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2931.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al-Fateh",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 10509,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10509.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Kholood",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-21 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.61,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0325,
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            "model_prob": 0.4423,
            "p_final": 0.3956
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2773,
            "best_odd": 3.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.014,
            "ev": 0.0068,
            "implied_prob": 0.2435,
            "model_prob": 0.294,
            "p_final": 0.2575
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3636,
            "best_odd": 2.43,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0466,
            "ev": -0.1611,
            "implied_prob": 0.3918,
            "model_prob": 0.2637,
            "p_final": 0.3452
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.1131,
          "edge_yes": -0.1131,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.2545,
          "ev_yes": -0.2155,
          "implied_no": 0.3639,
          "implied_yes": 0.6361,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.57,
          "best_under_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_over": -0.1474,
          "edge_under": 0.1474,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2684,
          "ev_under": 0.3617,
          "implied_over": 0.6134,
          "implied_under": 0.3866,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.54,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3617,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4423,
          "over_prob": 0.466,
          "total_xg": 2.54,
          "under_prob": 0.534,
          "xg_diff": 0.38
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "implied_prob": 0.3648,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4423,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Al-Fateh"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "model_prob": 0.477,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "ev": 0.3617,
          "implied_prob": 0.3866,
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
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      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3617,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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        "away": 0.4423,
        "draw": 0.294,
        "home": 0.2637
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3617,
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.534,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al-Fateh",
        "home": "Al Kholood"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.477,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1436208,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-21T18:16:57.696704+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}