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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Golden Arrows Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ee8f3e4de44607e7bb663df9a4c3a06a183454fff864497f03c0204b40b05f27",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"away_win_prob": 0.2636,
"btts_no_prob": 0.477,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"fair_odds_away": 3.79,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_home": 2.26,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"home_win_prob": 0.4423,
"over_25_prob": 0.466,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.534
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Golden Arrows or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Golden Arrows"
},
"away_xg": 1.08,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Golden Arrows",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.039,
"edge_gap": 0.1483,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.4423,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.4,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 44.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.34
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.34,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Golden Arrows Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.48,
"market_odds": 2.34,
"model_odds": 2.26,
"overround": 6.0,
"prob_edge": 1.5,
"value_pct": 3.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 66.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 76.8,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.08,
"home_expected": 1.46,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Golden Arrows or Draw",
"prob": 73.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Golden Arrows or TS Galaxy",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or TS Galaxy",
"prob": 55.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Golden Arrows or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 44.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Golden Arrows"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.54,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.54,
"under_prob": 53.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.5,
"implied_prob": 42.7,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Golden Arrows Win",
"model_prob": 44.2,
"odds": 2.34
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "TS Galaxy",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Golden Arrows",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.33,
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.54,
"gap_pp": -1.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.13,
"gap_pp": -2.75,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.66,
"gap_pp": 5.94,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 46.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.34,
"gap_pp": -5.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 53.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.33,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.09,
"early": 3.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.24,
"early": 3.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.13,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.32,
"early": 2.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.66,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.34,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.46,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0485,
"ev_under": -0.1029,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0485,
"over_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 10043.65,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 53.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_yes": 0.0198,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0198,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"sort_key": 5215.84,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0176,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"max_ev": -0.0176,
"model_prob": 0.4423,
"side_label": "Golden Arrows",
"sort_key": 1795.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8074,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8074.webp",
"away_team_name": "TS Galaxy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
"country_name": "South-Africa",
"fixture_id": 1429711,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 2690,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2690.webp",
"home_team_name": "Golden Arrows",
"league_country": "South-Africa",
"league_id": 288,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/288.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Soccer League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2876,
"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0819,
"implied_prob": 0.2913,
"model_prob": 0.2637,
"p_final": 0.2834
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2949,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.3054,
"model_prob": 0.294,
"p_final": 0.302
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4237,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0176,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"model_prob": 0.4423,
"p_final": 0.4198
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"edge_no": -0.0404,
"edge_yes": 0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_yes": 0.0198,
"implied_no": 0.5174,
"implied_yes": 0.4826,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"edge_over": 0.0374,
"edge_under": -0.0374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0485,
"ev_under": -0.1029,
"implied_over": 0.4286,
"implied_under": 0.5714,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0485,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4423,
"over_prob": 0.466,
"total_xg": 2.54,
"under_prob": 0.534,
"xg_diff": 0.38
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0485,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.466,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": -0.0176,
"implied_prob": 0.4033,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4423,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Golden Arrows"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0198,
"implied_prob": 0.4826,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1429711,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0485,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2637,
"draw": 0.294,
"home": 0.4423
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "TS Galaxy",
"home": "Golden Arrows"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1429711,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T18:36:38.486051+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier Soccer League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 66 |
| 3 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | Amazulu | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 43 |
| 6 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 40 |
| 8 | Durban City | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 10 | Siwelele | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 36 |
| 11 | Richards Bay | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 34 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| 13 | Chippa United | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 25 |
| 14 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Orbit College | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 24 |
| 16 | Magesi | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 57 | 21 | +36 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 56 | 12 | +44 | 66 |
| 3 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 40 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 54 |
| 5 | Amazulu | 29 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 44 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 7 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 31 |
| 8 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 36 |
| 9 | Durban City | 29 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Richards Bay | 29 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 34 |
| 11 | Magesi | 29 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 |
| 12 | Chippa United | 29 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 13 | Siwelele | 29 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 36 |
| 14 | Polokwane City | 30 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 40 |
| 15 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 24 |
| 16 | Orbit College | 29 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 24 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 20.7 | 10.5 | +10.2 | 54 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 16.4 | 7.7 | +8.7 | 66 |
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 19.2 | 11.2 | +8.0 | 68 |
| 4 | Magesi | 29 | 16.1 | 13.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 16.9 | 14.2 | +2.7 | 43 |
| 6 | Durban City | 29 | 15.7 | 13.6 | +2.1 | 39 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 30 | 14.0 | 12.2 | +1.8 | 40 |
| 8 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 15.0 | 14.6 | +0.4 | 36 |
| 9 | Richards Bay | 29 | 14.7 | 15.4 | -0.7 | 34 |
| 10 | Siwelele | 29 | 14.2 | 15.8 | -1.6 | 36 |
| 11 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 11.8 | 15.6 | -3.8 | 24 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 16.6 | 21.2 | -4.6 | 31 |
| 13 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 15.2 | 20.4 | -5.2 | 40 |
| 14 | Amazulu | 29 | 12.8 | 18.1 | -5.3 | 44 |
| 15 | Orbit College | 29 | 12.2 | 19.1 | -6.9 | 24 |
| 16 | Chippa United | 29 | 11.4 | 20.4 | -9.0 | 25 |
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