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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Aubagne Aubagne ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Aubagne win · Aubagne 3–1 Caen
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "655d027af20c1cf401dd72821e1835fff1e1e47487dd02db6fdd12c5e9af422f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Caen",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Caen"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Aubagne",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0765,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3411,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 12,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 77.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 74.2,
"no_prob": 42.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.4,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 57.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Aubagne or Draw",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Aubagne or Caen",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Caen",
"prob": 100.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Caen",
"pick_prob": 100.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 50.0,
"draw_pct": 50.0,
"home_pct": 0.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.4,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.4,
"under_prob": 57.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Caen",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Aubagne",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.11,
"gap_pp": 7.65,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.78,
"gap_pp": -1.11,
"kind": "1x2_d",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.11,
"gap_pp": -6.54,
"kind": "1x2_a",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.9,
"gap_pp": -16.9,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 43.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.1,
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"kind": "ou_u",
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],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.74,
"early": 2.74,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.11,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.49,
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"implied_closing_pct": 26.78,
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"implied_early_pct": 26.78,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.9,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.33,
"early": 2.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2862,
"ev_under": 0.3281,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3281,
"over_prob": 43.0,
"sort_key": 10445.29,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.065,
"ev_yes": -0.1218,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.065,
"no_prob": 42.6,
"sort_key": 10058.5,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.4
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0182,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3411,
"max_ev": 0.0182,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Aubagne",
"sort_key": 5214.56,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 88,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/88.webp",
"away_team_name": "Caen",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1423099,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 9930,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9930.webp",
"home_team_name": "Aubagne",
"league_country": "France",
"league_id": 63,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/63.webp",
"league_name": "National 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-15 17:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4058,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.3911,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3645
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.295,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.2678,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2645
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3411,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.3716
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"edge_no": 0.0481,
"edge_yes": -0.0481,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.065,
"ev_yes": -0.1218,
"implied_no": 0.3779,
"implied_yes": 0.6221,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.33,
"edge_over": -0.1571,
"edge_under": 0.1571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2862,
"ev_under": 0.3281,
"implied_over": 0.5871,
"implied_under": 0.4129,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3281,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.574,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.43,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.57,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0305,
"ev": 0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.3411,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Aubagne"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0481,
"ev": 0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"model_prob": 0.426,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1571,
"ev": 0.3281,
"implied_prob": 0.4129,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1423099,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3281,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Caen",
"home": "Aubagne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.187017,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3281,
"implied_prob": 0.4129,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1423099,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-15T17:29:04.680113+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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National 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dijon FCO | 32 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochaux | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 58 |
| 3 | Rouen | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | Fleury 91 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 | Versailles | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 53 |
| 6 | Orléans | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Le Puy Foot | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 47 |
| 8 | Caen | 32 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 40 |
| 9 | Concarneau | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Valenciennes | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 37 |
| 11 | Aubagne | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 12 | Villefranche | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Quevilly-Rouen | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Gobelins | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 32 |
| 15 | Bourg-en-Bresse 01 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
| 16 | Châteauroux | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 30 |
| 17 | Stade Briochin | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dijon FCO | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochaux | 32 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 58 |
| 3 | Fleury 91 | 32 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 54 |
| 4 | Versailles | 32 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 53 |
| 5 | Le Puy Foot | 32 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 47 |
| 6 | Rouen | 32 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 55 |
| 7 | Orléans | 32 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 51 |
| 8 | Caen | 32 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Aubagne | 32 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 37 |
| 10 | Valenciennes | 32 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 37 |
| 11 | Châteauroux | 32 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 30 |
| 12 | Stade Briochin | 32 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 27 |
| 13 | Villefranche | 32 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Quevilly-Rouen | 32 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 33 |
| 15 | Concarneau | 32 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
| 16 | Gobelins | 32 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 32 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-Bresse 01 | 32 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 31 |
