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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Breitenrain Breitenrain ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Breitenrain win · Breitenrain 1–0 Basilea II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6006d14f529eefc069187bf2bf25cc0f4fa30b6742906277aaadca023bda9c28",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Breitenrain or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Breitenrain"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Breitenrain",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0124,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4053,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 90.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 78.1,
"no_prob": 29.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 70.6,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 70.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.8,
"home_expected": 1.45,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Breitenrain or Draw",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Breitenrain or Basilea II",
"prob": 65.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Basilea II",
"prob": 65.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Breitenrain or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.0,
"draw_pct": 35.0,
"home_pct": 35.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Breitenrain"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.25,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 63.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.0,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.25,
"under_prob": 37.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Basilea II",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Breitenrain",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": 1.24,
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},
{
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"gap_pp": -0.13,
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.41,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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{
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"movement": [
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"early": 2.26,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.55,
"early": 3.55,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.72,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.54,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2474,
"ev_yes": 0.0237,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"no_prob": 29.4,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 70.6
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0109,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 63.0,
"sort_key": 1797.275,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 37.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0717,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"max_ev": -0.0717,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Breitenrain",
"sort_key": 1782.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.1
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10585,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10585.webp",
"away_team_name": "Basilea II",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ch.svg",
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"fixture_id": 1418729,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 10586,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10586.webp",
"home_team_name": "Breitenrain",
"league_country": "Switzerland",
"league_id": 510,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/510.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Promoci\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4425,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0974,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3318
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2994,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0004,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.258,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4416,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0717,
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},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"edge_no": -0.0742,
"edge_yes": 0.0742,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2474,
"ev_yes": 0.0237,
"implied_no": 0.3682,
"implied_yes": 0.6318,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": 0.0285,
"edge_under": -0.0285,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0109,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"implied_over": 0.6015,
"implied_under": 0.3985,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0237,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.706,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.63,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.37,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0237,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.6318,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.706,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.4053,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Breitenrain"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0742,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.6318,
"model_prob": 0.706,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0285,
"ev": -0.0109,
"implied_prob": 0.6015,
"model_prob": 0.63,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1418729,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0237,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Basilea II",
"home": "Breitenrain"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1418729,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T12:59:55.760348+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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1. Liga Promoción — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Kriens | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 79 |
| 2 | SC Brühl | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 72 |
| 3 | Biel-Bienne | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 64 |
| 4 | Basilea II | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 5 | Bavois | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 55 |
| 6 | Young Boys II | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 53 |
| 8 | Bulle | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 |
| 9 | Cham | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 10 | Grand-Saconnex | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 11 | Zürich II | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 12 | Breitenrain | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 13 | Luzern II | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 37 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 36 |
| 16 | Paradiso | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 17 | Lausanne Sport II | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 31 |
| 18 | Vevey Sports | 34 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Kriens | 34 | 100 | 43 | +57 | 79 |
| 2 | SC Brühl | 34 | 89 | 46 | +43 | 72 |
| 3 | Luzern II | 34 | 80 | 83 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Biel-Bienne | 34 | 78 | 46 | +32 | 64 |
| 5 | Grand-Saconnex | 34 | 71 | 69 | +2 | 43 |
| 6 | Bulle | 34 | 70 | 64 | +6 | 51 |
| 7 | Young Boys II | 34 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 54 |
| 8 | Basilea II | 34 | 65 | 48 | +17 | 59 |
| 9 | Bavois | 34 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 55 |
| 10 | Cham | 34 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 50 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport II | 34 | 60 | 84 | -24 | 31 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 34 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 41 |
| 13 | FC Schaffhausen | 34 | 51 | 46 | +5 | 53 |
| 14 | Paradiso | 34 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 35 |
| 15 | Breitenrain | 34 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 41 |
| 16 | Lugano II | 34 | 45 | 75 | -30 | 36 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 34 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Vevey Sports | 34 | 28 | 115 | -87 | 2 |
