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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Leobendorf Leobendorf ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.95
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Leobendorf win · Leobendorf 5–1 Traiskirchen
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "091b04b4104b62adc800ec46abe8d12a7c817948596942b1ff37f5eedcef10f6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.281,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.591,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.409,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3435,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.56,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.91,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.08,
"home_win_prob": 0.3755,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.682
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Traiskirchen",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Traiskirchen"
},
"away_xg": 0.9,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Leobendorf",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0296,
"edge_gap": 0.0323,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4054,
"model_prob": 0.3758,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 34.3,
"home": 37.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.19
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],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Leobendorf Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.47,
"market_odds": 2.19,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -8.1,
"value_pct": -17.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 59.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 66.0,
"no_prob": 59.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 59.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 40.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.9,
"home_expected": 1.08,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 13.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
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{
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"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Leobendorf or Draw",
"prob": 71.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Leobendorf or Traiskirchen",
"prob": 65.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Traiskirchen",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Leobendorf or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.9
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 34.4,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Leobendorf"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 1.98,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 31.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 68.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.98,
"under_prob": 68.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 35.9,
"implied_prob": 25.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 34.4,
"odds": 3.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.9
}
},
"home_xg": 1.08,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.5675,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -56.8,
"text": "-56.8%"
},
"ev_under": 1.2506,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": 125.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 31.8,
"sort_key": 11275.54,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 68.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9976,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 99.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.4601,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -46.0,
"text": "-46.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 59.1,
"sort_key": 10897.84,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1401,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.0,
"text": "-14.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4054,
"max_ev": 0.0034,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 0.3,
"text": "+0.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3758,
"side_label": "Leobendorf",
"sort_key": 5202.72,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 824.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4961,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4961.webp",
"away_team_name": "Traiskirchen",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1418146,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_id": 4951,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4951.webp",
"home_team_name": "Leobendorf",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Este",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-06 14:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Leobendorf",
"venue_name": "Franz Haas Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0347,
"ev": -0.1956,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"model_prob": 0.2808,
"p_final": 0.3351
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2466,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.0034,
"implied_prob": 0.2247,
"model_prob": 0.3435,
"p_final": 0.254
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.43,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.4054,
"model_prob": 0.3758,
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},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.32,
"edge_no": 0.3024,
"edge_yes": -0.3024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9976,
"ev_yes": -0.4601,
"implied_no": 0.2886,
"implied_yes": 0.7114,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"edge_over": -0.3826,
"edge_under": 0.3826,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.5675,
"ev_under": 1.2506,
"implied_over": 0.7006,
"implied_under": 0.2994,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.2506,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.3435,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3758,
"over_prob": 0.318,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"under_prob": 0.682,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.1401,
"implied_prob": 0.4054,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3758,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Leobendorf"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.3024,
"ev": 0.9976,
"implied_prob": 0.2886,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.3826,
"ev": 1.2506,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.682,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1418146,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.2506,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.3435,
"home": 0.3758
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9976,
"implied_prob": 0.2886,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9976,
"implied_prob": 0.2886,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Traiskirchen",
"home": "Leobendorf"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 1.108782,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.2506,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.682,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1418146,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:14:19.900411+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Este — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parndorf | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Gloggnitz | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 62 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 4 | Leobendorf | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 57 |
| 5 | Oberwart | 32 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 56 |
| 6 | SV Horn | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 8 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
| 10 | Wiener SC | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 46 |
| 11 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | Donau | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Favoritner AC | 32 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 39 |
| 14 | Union Mauer | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 15 | Neusiedl | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 29 |
| 16 | Retz | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 8 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oberwart | 32 | 73 | 42 | +31 | 56 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 70 | 52 | +18 | 50 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 58 |
| 4 | Parndorf | 32 | 58 | 34 | +24 | 62 |
| 5 | Gloggnitz | 32 | 58 | 45 | +13 | 62 |
| 6 | SV Horn | 32 | 57 | 35 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 49 |
| 8 | Wiener SC | 32 | 54 | 52 | +2 | 46 |
| 9 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 51 | 44 | +7 | 47 |
| 10 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | Donau | 32 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
| 12 | Leobendorf | 32 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 57 |
| 13 | Neusiedl | 32 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 29 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 32 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 39 |
| 15 | Union Mauer | 32 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 37 |
| 16 | Retz | 32 | 25 | 64 | -39 | 20 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 21 | 102 | -81 | 8 |
