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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Wda Świecie Noteć Czarnków ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.17
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Noteć Czarnków win · Wda Świecie 1–3 Noteć Czarnków
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "d8d338fbb7d569222c040edf436db6fdf9adb62c8b0c253187a2c74965568fbc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wda \u015awiecie",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0604,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3572,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 63.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 53.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.7,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 46.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.65,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wda \u015awiecie or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wda \u015awiecie or Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 3.0,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 57.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.0,
"under_prob": 42.3
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Wda \u015awiecie",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": 6.04,
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},
{
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"gap_pp": 2.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
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"gap_pp": -8.43,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.76,
"gap_pp": -4.06,
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{
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],
"movement": [
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},
{
"closing": 3.82,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3962,
"ev_no_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3333,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -33.3,
"text": "-33.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 53.7,
"sort_key": 10506.58,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"ev_over": -0.0941,
"ev_over_display": {
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"ev_under": 0.011,
"ev_under_display": {
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"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 5208.8,
"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0489,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
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"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Wda \u015awiecie",
"sort_key": 1787.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.1
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 21657,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21657.webp",
"away_team_name": "Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1410765,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_id": 24328,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24328.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wda \u015awiecie",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_id": 781,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/781.webp",
"league_name": "III Liga - Grupo 2",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-30 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "\u015awiecie nad Wis\u0142\u0105",
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3931,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.1824,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0842,
"implied_prob": 0.2329,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2398
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4092,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.382
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.1759,
"edge_yes": -0.1759,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3962,
"ev_yes": -0.3333,
"implied_no": 0.3611,
"implied_yes": 0.6389,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.39,
"edge_over": -0.0351,
"edge_under": 0.0351,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0941,
"ev_under": 0.011,
"implied_over": 0.6121,
"implied_under": 0.3879,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3962,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.463,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.577,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.423,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.3572,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wda \u015awiecie"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1759,
"ev": 0.3962,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"model_prob": 0.537,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.011,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.423,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1410765,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3962,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Note\u0107 Czarnk\u00f3w",
"home": "Wda \u015awiecie"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.212759,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3962,
"implied_prob": 0.3611,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.537,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1410765,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-30T19:54:36.726977+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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III Liga - Grupo 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 80 |
| 2 | Luzino | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 76 |
| 3 | Polonia Środa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 66 |
| 4 | Lipno Stęszew | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 |
| 5 | Noteć Czarnków | 34 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 49 |
| 6 | Elana Toruń | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 49 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 49 |
| 8 | Flota Świnoujście | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 49 |
| 9 | Wda Świecie | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 48 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 47 |
| 11 | Kluczevia Stargard | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 46 |
| 12 | Stargard Szczeciński | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 13 | Victoria Września | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 14 | Pogoń Szczecin II | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 41 |
| 15 | Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 16 | Cartusia Kartuzy | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 38 |
| 17 | Tłuchowia | 34 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 |
| 18 | Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal | 34 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luzino | 34 | 79 | 39 | +40 | 76 |
| 2 | Pogoń Szczecin II | 34 | 75 | 66 | +9 | 41 |
| 3 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 34 | 73 | 23 | +50 | 80 |
| 4 | Polonia Środa | 34 | 67 | 43 | +24 | 66 |
| 5 | Lech Poznań II | 34 | 67 | 54 | +13 | 49 |
| 6 | Stargard Szczeciński | 34 | 56 | 51 | +5 | 45 |
| 7 | Kluczevia Stargard | 34 | 54 | 43 | +11 | 46 |
| 8 | Noteć Czarnków | 34 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 49 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 34 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 49 |
| 10 | Flota Świnoujście | 34 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 49 |
| 11 | Unia Swarzędz | 34 | 47 | 41 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | Lipno Stęszew | 34 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 51 |
| 13 | Wda Świecie | 34 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 48 |
| 14 | Victoria Września | 34 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 42 |
| 15 | Cartusia Kartuzy | 34 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 | Tłuchowia | 34 | 37 | 66 | -29 | 31 |
| 17 | Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce | 34 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 39 |
| 18 | Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal | 34 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 15 |
