Estadísticas / Fútbol / Indonesia. Liga 1 de Indonesia / Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri

Semen Padang vs Persik Kediri Statistics & Analysis

May 08, 2026 - 08:30
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 draw Persik Kediri ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1491924

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Persik Kediri win · Semen Padang 0–3 Persik Kediri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Semen Padang (1X2),Menos de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Semen Padang (1X2) en unos 15.6 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Semen Padang (1X2) 41.8 26.1 +15.6
Dibujar (1X2) 25.7 26.0 -0.3
Persik Kediri (1X2) 32.6 47.8 -15.3
Más de 2,5 goles 50.6 54.7 -4.1
Menos de 2,5 goles 49.4 45.3 +4.1
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 41.8% en Semen Padang (1X2), mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 26.1%. La diferencia —unos 15.6 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Semen Padang (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Persik Kediri (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 1.75 1.75 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 2.11 2.11 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "prediction_confidence": "none"
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    "api_prediction": {
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      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
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    "betting_insight": {
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        "home_failed_to_score": 16,
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    "homepage_pick": null,
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      "away_team_id": 4241,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4241.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Persik Kediri",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/id.svg",
      "country_name": "Indonesia",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2456,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2456.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Semen Padang",
      "league_country": "Indonesia",
      "league_id": 274,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/274.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga 1 de Indonesia",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-08 08:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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          "edge_no": 0.1972,
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        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.45,
        "home": 0.1
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "side": "draw",
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      "teams": {
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        "home": "Semen Padang"
      },
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        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.625,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
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    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1403841,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-08T08:29:04.866796+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Volver a Estadísticas
Liga 1 de Indonesia Liga 1 de Indonesia — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 79
2 Borneo FC 34 25 4 5 79
3 Persija Jakarta 34 22 5 7 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 16 10 8 58
5 Bhayangkara FC 34 16 5 13 53
6 Malut United 34 15 8 11 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 48
10 Persita Tangerang 34 13 6 15 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 39
13 Persijap Jepara 34 9 9 16 36
14 Persepam Madura United 34 9 8 17 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 18
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Borneo FC 34 74 31 +43 79
2 Malut United 34 68 53 +15 53
3 Persija Jakarta 34 65 29 +36 71
4 Persebaya Surabaya 34 61 35 +26 58
5 Persib Bandung 34 59 22 +37 79
6 Bali United 34 57 48 +9 51
7 Bhayangkara FC 34 53 45 +8 53
8 Arema FC 34 53 47 +6 48
9 Dewa United 34 44 37 +7 53
10 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 43 44 -1 45
11 Persik Kediri 34 42 61 -19 39
12 PSM Makassar 34 39 49 -10 34
13 Persis Solo 34 39 59 -20 34
14 Persita Tangerang 34 38 37 +1 45
15 Persepam Madura United 34 37 54 -17 35
16 Persijap Jepara 34 31 45 -14 36
17 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 31 95 -64 18
18 Semen Padang 34 22 65 -43 20