Marítimo vs Chaves Statistics & Analysis

May 15, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.25

3 0.95

xG Accuracy: 53%

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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
1X2 Marítimo Chaves ✖ Incorrecto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1480485

Closing Odds 3.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Chaves win · Marítimo 1–3 Chaves

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Dibujar (1X2),Menos de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Menos de 2,5 goles en unos 18.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado	Modelo %	Implícita cierre %	Brecha (pp)
Marítimo (1X2)	43.2	45.0	-1.8
Dibujar (1X2)	28.7	26.1	+2.6
Chaves (1X2)	28.1	28.9	-0.8
Más de 2,5 goles	37.7	55.9	-18.2
Menos de 2,5 goles	62.3	44.1	+18.2

Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 62.3% en Menos de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 44.1%. La diferencia —unos 18.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea

Mercado	Temprano (PRE30)	Cierre (PRE1)
Marítimo (1X2)	2.11	2.11
Dibujar (1X2)	3.64	3.64
Chaves (1X2)	3.28	3.28
Más de 2,5 goles	1.68	1.68
Menos de 2,5 goles	2.13	2.13

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON

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Segunda Liga — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	Marítimo	34	20	6	8	66
2	Académico Viseu	34	17	8	9	59
3	Torreense	34	18	5	11	59
4	Vizela	34	14	9	11	51
5	FC Porto B	34	15	6	13	51
6	União de Leiria	34	13	11	10	50
7	Leixões	34	15	5	14	50
8	Feirense	34	12	10	12	46
9	Chaves	34	13	6	15	45
10	Benfica B	34	11	11	12	44
11	Felgueiras 1932	34	11	11	12	44
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	11	10	13	43
13	Sporting CP B	34	13	3	18	42
14	Penafiel	34	11	8	15	41
15	Portimonense	34	11	7	16	40
16	Farense	34	10	10	14	40
17	Paços de Ferreira	34	9	12	13	39
18	Oliveirense	34	8	10	16	34

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	Académico Viseu	34	58	33	+25	59
2	União de Leiria	34	52	46	+6	50
3	Marítimo	34	50	29	+21	66
4	Torreense	34	46	33	+13	59
5	Leixões	34	46	55	-9	50
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	44	52	-8	43
7	Benfica B	34	43	44	-1	44
8	Chaves	34	42	40	+2	45
9	Sporting CP B	34	41	34	+7	42
10	FC Porto B	34	41	42	-1	51
11	Vizela	34	39	40	-1	51
12	Portimonense	34	39	49	-10	40
13	Penafiel	34	37	39	-2	41
14	Feirense	34	37	40	-3	46
15	Felgueiras 1932	34	34	38	-4	44
16	Paços de Ferreira	34	34	48	-14	39
17	Oliveirense	34	34	49	-15	34
18	Farense	34	31	37	-6	40

#	EQUIPO	PJ	xG	xGC	+/-	Pts
1	Marítimo	34	9.6	5.5	+4.1	66
2	Chaves	34	7.5	4.3	+3.2	45
3	Académico Viseu	34	8.5	6.2	+2.3	59
4	Feirense	34	2.9	1.1	+1.8	46
5	Leixões	34	7.9	7.1	+0.8	50
6	Portimonense	34	6.2	5.4	+0.8	40
7	Benfica B	34	4.1	3.5	+0.6	44
8	Felgueiras 1932	34	7.2	6.7	+0.5	44
9	União de Leiria	34	8.6	8.2	+0.4	50
10	Sporting CP B	34	3.6	3.2	+0.4	42
11	Farense	34	3.8	4.2	-0.4	40
12	Lusitânia Lourosa	34	7.6	8.5	-0.9	43
13	Vizela	34	3.1	4.4	-1.3	51
14	Oliveirense	34	6.8	8.7	-1.9	34
15	Torreense	34	3.1	5.0	-1.9	59
16	Penafiel	34	4.7	7.3	-2.6	41
17	FC Porto B	34	4.0	6.7	-2.7	51
18	Paços de Ferreira	34	4.0	7.3	-3.3	39