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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Treibach Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Treibach 0–0 Gleisdorf 09
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "c5ed0be3c830bb0ffa661acc5e3c54d155bed21dc3a6cb82fe0f702b457974ba",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Gleisdorf 09 and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Gleisdorf 09"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Treibach",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.038,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 63.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 40.7,
"no_prob": 74.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 74.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 25.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.5,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
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"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Treibach or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Treibach or Gleisdorf 09",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gleisdorf 09",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Gleisdorf 09",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.9,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 55.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.4,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.9,
"under_prob": 44.6
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Gleisdorf 09",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Treibach",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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{
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{
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],
"movement": [
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},
{
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},
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"kind": "1x2_a"
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{
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{
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9764,
"ev_yes": -0.6351,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 74.3,
"sort_key": 11028.76,
"tier": "best",
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{
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0739,
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"sort_key": 1781.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4940,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4940.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gleisdorf 09",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1397949,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 4962,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4962.webp",
"home_team_name": "Treibach",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_id": 222,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/222.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Mitte",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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],
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1744,
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"p_final": 0.3669
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"draw": {
"alpha": 0.286,
"best_odd": 3.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0764,
"implied_prob": 0.2255,
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"edge_no": 0.3921,
"edge_yes": -0.3921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.9764,
"ev_yes": -0.6351,
"implied_no": 0.3509,
"implied_yes": 0.6491,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 2.68,
"edge_over": -0.0761,
"edge_under": 0.0761,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1524,
"ev_under": 0.1953,
"implied_over": 0.6301,
"implied_under": 0.3699,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9764,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.554,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.446,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0161,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Treibach"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.3921,
"ev": 0.9764,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.743,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0761,
"ev": 0.1953,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"model_prob": 0.446,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1397949,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9764,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1953,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.446,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1953,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.446,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gleisdorf 09",
"home": "Treibach"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.725465,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9764,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.743,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1397949,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T20:41:35.101972+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Regionalliga Mitte — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Voitsberg | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 80 |
| 2 | Union Gurten | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 3 | Oedt | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | LASK Juniors | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 6 | Kalsdorf | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 7 | Velden | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 8 | SV Lafnitz | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 9 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 |
| 10 | Weiz | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC II | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 12 | Wohnbau Dietach | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 13 | Gleisdorf 09 | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 |
| 14 | Treibach | 30 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 24 |
| 15 | Ried II | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 16 | St. Anna | 30 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Voitsberg | 30 | 113 | 21 | +92 | 80 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 30 | 66 | 44 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Oedt | 30 | 62 | 32 | +30 | 55 |
| 4 | Weiz | 30 | 61 | 66 | -5 | 39 |
| 5 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 30 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 51 |
| 6 | Union Gurten | 30 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 64 |
| 7 | Kalsdorf | 30 | 59 | 53 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 | SV Lafnitz | 30 | 55 | 60 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Velden | 30 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 46 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC II | 30 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 30 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 40 |
| 12 | Gleisdorf 09 | 30 | 43 | 72 | -29 | 30 |
| 13 | Ried II | 30 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 25 |
| 14 | Treibach | 30 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 24 |
| 15 | Wohnbau Dietach | 30 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 32 |
| 16 | St. Anna | 30 | 22 | 76 | -54 | 11 |
