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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Rio Ave Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.79
AI Fair Odds
2.34
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Casa Pia AC 1–1 Rio Ave
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 42.7%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"away_win_prob": 0.4272,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.11,
"fair_odds_home": 3.98,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.91,
"home_win_prob": 0.251,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Rio Ave",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Rio Ave"
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"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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"risk_color": null,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
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"away_played": 33,
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"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 59.7,
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"pick": "No",
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
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"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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"label": "0-2",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 67.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"draw_pct": 32.2,
"home_pct": 25.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Rio Ave"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.17,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 36.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.17,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 92.7,
"implied_prob": 22.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
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"odds": 4.51
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"most_likely": {
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},
"home_xg": 0.91,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"away_team_id": 226,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/226.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rio Ave",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_name": "Portugal",
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"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
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"home_team_id": 4716,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4716.webp",
"home_team_name": "Casa Pia AC",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 16:00:00",
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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"score": 6.0
},
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"home": {
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"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0979,
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},
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"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.077,
"edge_yes": -0.077,
"ev_available": true,
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"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
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"edge_over": -0.1305,
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"ev_available": true,
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"implied_over": 0.4995,
"implied_under": 0.5005,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.17,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.262,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
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],
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"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
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"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
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"model_prob": 0.3215,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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"side": "away",
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},
"btts": {
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"ev": 0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.478,
"model_prob": 0.555,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"side": "under",
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}
},
"match_id": 1396536,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.262,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.3215,
"home": 0.2512
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rio Ave",
"home": "Casa Pia AC"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.262,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 4
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396536,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:59:32.964562+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primeira Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 80 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitória de Guimarães | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia AC | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 34 | 89 | 24 | +65 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 74 | 25 | +49 | 80 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 34 | 66 | 18 | +48 | 88 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 34 | 64 | 36 | +28 | 59 |
| 5 | Estoril | 34 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 | Arouca | 34 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 42 |
| 8 | Famalicão | 34 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 56 |
| 9 | Vitória de Guimarães | 34 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 42 |
| 10 | Estrela | 34 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Nacional | 34 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 34 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 13 | Alverca | 34 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 39 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 34 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 36 |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 34 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 36 |
| 16 | Casa Pia AC | 34 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 28 |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 34 | 69.0 | 23.9 | +45.1 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 68.4 | 27.3 | +41.1 | 80 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 34 | 62.1 | 22.5 | +39.6 | 88 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 34 | 57.3 | 37.3 | +20.0 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 45.6 | 33.7 | +11.9 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 44.9 | 36.8 | +8.1 | 50 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | 36.4 | 35.2 | +1.2 | 36 |
| 8 | Alverca | 34 | 40.5 | 40.1 | +0.4 | 39 |
| 9 | Vitória de Guimarães | 34 | 39.3 | 45.4 | -6.1 | 42 |
| 10 | Tondela | 34 | 36.6 | 48.7 | -12.1 | 28 |
| 11 | Estoril | 34 | 42.8 | 55.2 | -12.4 | 39 |
| 12 | Nacional | 34 | 37.9 | 50.6 | -12.7 | 34 |
| 13 | Estrela | 34 | 40.7 | 53.6 | -12.9 | 30 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 34 | 34.2 | 52.3 | -18.1 | 36 |
| 15 | Arouca | 34 | 30.8 | 49.4 | -18.6 | 42 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 34 | 31.3 | 51.7 | -20.4 | 43 |
| 17 | Casa Pia AC | 34 | 31.6 | 54.8 | -23.2 | 30 |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 31.9 | 62.6 | -30.7 | 21 |
