Estadísticas / Fútbol / Germany. 3. Liga / SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen

SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Statistics & Analysis

May 16, 2026 - 11:30
2 1.99
3 1.49
xG Accuracy: 66%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SSV Ulm 1846 Rot-Weiß Essen ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "531cf6c1a89c5b1ce3b5ed8f4d0d9bff9e73ee7bee314a49f49f7f7e83e25f33",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.49,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2778,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2406,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.6,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.16,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.08,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.99,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4816,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Rot-Wei\u00df Essen and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : SSV Ulm 1846",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Rot-Wei\u00df Essen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.49,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "SSV Ulm 1846",
      "confidence": 48.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : SSV Ulm 1846",
        "edge": 0.2865,
        "edge_gap": 0.2032,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1948,
        "model_prob": 0.4813,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 27.8,
          "draw": 24.1,
          "home": 48.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "SSV Ulm 1846"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.81
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.81,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "SSV Ulm 1846 Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 5.13,
        "market_odds": 4.81,
        "model_odds": 2.08,
        "overround": 6.7,
        "prob_edge": 27.3,
        "value_pct": 131.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 77.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 86.3,
        "no_prob": 31.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 68.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 68.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.49,
        "home_expected": 1.99,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "SSV Ulm 1846 or Draw",
            "prob": 72.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "SSV Ulm 1846 or Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
            "prob": 76.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
            "prob": 51.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "SSV Ulm 1846 or Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
        "pick_prob": 76.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 27.8,
        "draw_pct": 24.1,
        "home_pct": 48.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "SSV Ulm 1846"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 3.48,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 67.5,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 67.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.48,
        "under_prob": 32.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 131.8,
        "implied_prob": 20.8,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "SSV Ulm 1846 Win",
        "model_prob": 48.2,
        "odds": 4.81
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "SSV Ulm 1846",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 19.48,
          "gap_pp": 28.65,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 48.13
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.07,
          "gap_pp": 4.0,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 24.06
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.45,
          "gap_pp": -32.65,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 27.81
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 66.82,
          "gap_pp": 0.68,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 67.5
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 33.18,
          "gap_pp": -0.68,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 32.5
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 4.81,
          "early": 4.81,
          "implied_closing_pct": 19.48,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 19.48,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.67,
          "early": 4.67,
          "implied_closing_pct": 20.07,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 20.07,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.55,
          "early": 1.55,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.45,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.45,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.4,
          "early": 1.4,
          "implied_closing_pct": 66.82,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 66.82,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.82,
          "early": 2.82,
          "implied_closing_pct": 33.18,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 33.18,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 28.6,
        "kind": "1x2_h"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 9.1
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.99,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0942,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1948,
        "max_ev": 0.0942,
        "model_prob": 0.4813,
        "side_label": "SSV Ulm 1846",
        "sort_key": 10234.78,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.161,
        "ev_yes": 0.0419,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0419,
        "no_prob": 31.9,
        "sort_key": 10037.71,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 68.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0415,
        "ev_under": -0.025,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.025,
        "over_prob": 67.5,
        "sort_key": 1793.75,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 32.5,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.3,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 9.1
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1621,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1621.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1394430,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1652,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1652.webp",
      "home_team_name": "SSV Ulm 1846",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 80,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3062,
            "best_odd": 1.55,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.1,
            "ev": -0.2179,
            "implied_prob": 0.6045,
            "model_prob": 0.2781,
            "p_final": 0.5046
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.188,
            "best_odd": 4.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0075,
            "ev": -0.0279,
            "implied_prob": 0.2007,
            "model_prob": 0.2406,
            "p_final": 0.2082
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1141,
            "best_odd": 4.81,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0327,
            "ev": 0.0942,
            "implied_prob": 0.1948,
            "model_prob": 0.4813,
            "p_final": 0.2275
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.53,
          "edge_no": -0.0534,
          "edge_yes": 0.0534,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.161,
          "ev_yes": 0.0419,
          "implied_no": 0.3724,
          "implied_yes": 0.6276,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.42,
          "best_under_odd": 3.0,
          "edge_over": 0.0062,
          "edge_under": -0.0062,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0415,
          "ev_under": -0.025,
          "implied_over": 0.6688,
          "implied_under": 0.3312,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.48,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0942,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.681,
          "draw_prob": 0.2406,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4813,
          "over_prob": 0.675,
          "total_xg": 3.48,
          "under_prob": 0.325,
          "xg_diff": 0.5
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0327,
          "ev": 0.0942,
          "implied_prob": 0.1948,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4813,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "SSV Ulm 1846"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0534,
          "ev": 0.0419,
          "implied_prob": 0.6276,
          "model_prob": 0.681,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": -0.0062,
          "ev": -0.025,
          "implied_prob": 0.3312,
          "model_prob": 0.325,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1394430,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0942,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.5,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2781,
        "draw": 0.2406,
        "home": 0.4813
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Rot-Wei\u00df Essen",
        "home": "SSV Ulm 1846"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.036271,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0942,
        "implied_prob": 0.1948,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.4813,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "SSV Ulm 1846",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1394430,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T11:59:18.967592+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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3. Liga 3. LigaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 VfL Osnabrück 38 24 8 6 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 20 10 8 70
4 MSV Duisburg 38 19 11 8 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 64
8 TSV 1860 München 38 15 11 12 56
9 SV Wehen 38 15 8 15 53
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 15 7 16 52
11 FC Viktoria Köln 38 15 6 17 51
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 13 10 15 49
13 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 14 7 17 49
14 Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 46
15 FC Saarbrücken 38 10 14 14 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 43
17 Havelse 38 9 8 21 35
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 7 13 18 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 9 6 23 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 5 6 27 21
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Verl 38 82 48 +34 64
2 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 78 66 +12 70
3 Alemannia Aachen 38 76 57 +19 64
4 Hansa Rostock 38 74 49 +25 67
5 Energie Cottbus 38 72 51 +21 72
6 VfL Osnabrück 38 66 34 +32 80
7 MSV Duisburg 38 66 49 +17 68
8 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 65 56 +9 49
9 Hoffenheim II 38 65 71 -6 43
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 59 72 -13 52
11 Stuttgart II 38 57 69 -12 46
12 Havelse 38 57 89 -32 35
13 SV Wehen 38 54 52 +2 53
14 TSV 1860 München 38 54 53 +1 56
15 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 54 58 -4 49
16 FC Viktoria Köln 38 51 53 -2 51
17 FC Saarbrücken 38 51 57 -6 44
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 51 70 -19 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 49 78 -29 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 38 87 -49 21
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hansa Rostock 38 49.0 35.6 +13.4 67
2 Energie Cottbus 38 46.5 33.7 +12.8 72
3 Verl 38 44.0 31.6 +12.4 64
4 VfL Osnabrück 38 41.6 30.4 +11.2 80
5 MSV Duisburg 38 37.4 29.2 +8.2 68
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 45.5 38.9 +6.6 49
7 TSV 1860 München 38 45.8 42.6 +3.2 56
8 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 41.9 38.8 +3.1 70
9 Waldhof Mannheim 38 38.3 35.4 +2.9 52
10 SV Wehen 38 36.8 35.3 +1.5 53
11 FC Saarbrücken 38 41.1 40.6 +0.5 44
12 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 40.8 40.6 +0.2 49
13 FC Viktoria Köln 38 33.4 34.1 -0.7 51
14 Stuttgart II 38 37.1 41.0 -3.9 46
15 SSV Ulm 1846 38 37.4 42.3 -4.9 33
16 Alemannia Aachen 38 37.1 42.9 -5.8 64
17 Hoffenheim II 38 44.5 51.1 -6.6 43
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 32.1 45.3 -13.2 34
19 Havelse 38 31.9 50.5 -18.6 35
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 32.9 55.1 -22.2 21