FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Erzgebirge Aue Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_win_prob": 0.4313,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2622,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.32,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.81,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.26,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3065,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Erzgebirge Aue",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Erzgebirge Aue"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.71,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Erzgebirge Aue",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0348,
        "edge_gap": 0.1243,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4658,
        "model_prob": 0.4309,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 43.1,
          "draw": 26.2,
          "home": 30.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.02
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.02,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Erzgebirge Aue Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.15,
        "market_odds": 2.02,
        "model_odds": 2.32,
        "overround": 6.3,
        "prob_edge": -6.4,
        "value_pct": -12.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 81.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 14,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 75.8,
        "no_prob": 36.5,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 63.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 63.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.42,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.5
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 7.5
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "FC Schweinfurt 05 or Draw",
            "prob": 56.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "FC Schweinfurt 05 or Erzgebirge Aue",
            "prob": 73.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Erzgebirge Aue",
            "prob": 69.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "FC Schweinfurt 05 or Erzgebirge Aue",
        "pick_prob": 73.7
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 43.1,
        "draw_pct": 26.2,
        "home_pct": 30.6,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Erzgebirge Aue"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.13,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 60.5,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.13,
        "under_prob": 39.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 5.1,
        "implied_prob": 24.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 26.2,
        "odds": 4.01
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Erzgebirge Aue",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "FC Schweinfurt 05",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 30.67
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 23.46,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 26.24
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.58,
          "gap_pp": -3.48,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 43.09
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 66.03,
          "gap_pp": -5.53,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 60.5
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 33.97,
          "gap_pp": 5.53,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 39.5
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 3.14,
          "early": 3.14,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.42,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.76,
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          "implied_early_pct": 33.97,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.42,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.106,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "sort_key": 10245.4,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 39.5,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "ev_yes": -0.0856,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4658,
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        "side_label": "Erzgebirge Aue",
        "sort_key": 1790.55,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 811.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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      }
    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 190,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/190.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Erzgebirge Aue",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1394428,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1635,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1635.webp",
      "home_team_name": "FC Schweinfurt 05",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 80,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0378,
            "implied_prob": 0.2346,
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            "p_final": 0.2399
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2968,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0021,
            "ev": -0.0526,
            "implied_prob": 0.2996,
            "model_prob": 0.3067,
            "p_final": 0.3017
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge_no": 0.0201,
          "edge_yes": -0.0201,
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          "ev_no": 0.022,
          "ev_yes": -0.0856,
          "implied_no": 0.3449,
          "implied_yes": 0.6551,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.49,
          "best_under_odd": 2.8,
          "edge_over": -0.0478,
          "edge_under": 0.0478,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.6528,
          "implied_under": 0.3472,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 3.13,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
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      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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          "total_xg": 3.13,
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          "xg_diff": 0.29
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4309,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Erzgebirge Aue"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0478,
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          "implied_prob": 0.3472,
          "model_prob": 0.395,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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        "away": 0.4309,
        "draw": 0.2624,
        "home": 0.3067
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      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Erzgebirge Aue",
        "home": "FC Schweinfurt 05"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.039776,
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.395,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1394428,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T11:59:10.224483+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}