Alemannia Aachen vs Havelse Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1826,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2094,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.48,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.78,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.64,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.37,
      "home_win_prob": 0.608,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Alemannia Aachen or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Alemannia Aachen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.27,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0923,
        "edge_gap": 0.4,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7012,
        "model_prob": 0.6089,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 18.2,
          "draw": 20.9,
          "home": 60.9
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.33
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.33,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Alemannia Aachen Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.43,
        "market_odds": 1.33,
        "model_odds": 1.64,
        "overround": 7.2,
        "prob_edge": -14.2,
        "value_pct": -18.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 71.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 90.7,
        "no_prob": 33.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 66.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 66.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.27,
        "home_expected": 2.37,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 7.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Alemannia Aachen or Draw",
            "prob": 81.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Alemannia Aachen or Havelse",
            "prob": 79.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Havelse",
            "prob": 39.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Alemannia Aachen or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 81.7
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 18.3,
        "draw_pct": 20.9,
        "home_pct": 60.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Alemannia Aachen"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.64,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.9,
        "over_prob": 70.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 70.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.64,
        "under_prob": 29.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 23.9,
        "implied_prob": 14.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Havelse Win",
        "model_prob": 18.3,
        "odds": 6.77
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Havelse",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Alemannia Aachen",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 70.12,
          "gap_pp": -9.23,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 60.89
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 16.11,
          "gap_pp": 4.78,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 20.89
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 13.78,
          "gap_pp": 4.45,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 18.22
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 73.76,
          "gap_pp": -3.36,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 70.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.24,
          "gap_pp": 3.36,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 29.6
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.33,
          "early": 1.33,
          "implied_closing_pct": 70.12,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 70.12,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 5.79,
          "early": 5.79,
          "implied_closing_pct": 16.11,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 16.11,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
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        {
          "closing": 6.77,
          "early": 6.77,
          "implied_closing_pct": 13.78,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 13.78,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.27,
          "early": 1.27,
          "implied_closing_pct": 73.76,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 73.76,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.57,
          "early": 3.57,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.24,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 26.24,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 4.8,
        "kind": "1x2_d"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.37,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0918,
        "ev_under": 0.0656,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0656,
        "over_prob": 70.4,
        "sort_key": 10059.04,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 29.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1309,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7012,
        "max_ev": -0.0112,
        "model_prob": 0.6089,
        "side_label": "Alemannia Aachen",
        "sort_key": 1797.2,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1111,
        "ev_yes": -0.0269,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0269,
        "no_prob": 33.8,
        "sort_key": 1793.275,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 66.2
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 808.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.4
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 9342,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9342.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Havelse",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1394423,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 4259,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4259.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Alemannia Aachen",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 80,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1867,
            "best_odd": 6.77,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0083,
            "ev": -0.0112,
            "implied_prob": 0.1378,
            "model_prob": 0.1822,
            "p_final": 0.1461
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          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 5.79,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0089,
            "ev": -0.016,
            "implied_prob": 0.1611,
            "model_prob": 0.2089,
            "p_final": 0.1699
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5169,
            "best_odd": 1.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0477,
            "ev": -0.1309,
            "implied_prob": 0.7012,
            "model_prob": 0.6089,
            "p_final": 0.6535
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.47,
          "edge_no": -0.0244,
          "edge_yes": 0.0244,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1111,
          "ev_yes": -0.0269,
          "implied_no": 0.3624,
          "implied_yes": 0.6376,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.29,
          "best_under_odd": 3.6,
          "edge_over": -0.0272,
          "edge_under": 0.0272,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0918,
          "ev_under": 0.0656,
          "implied_over": 0.7312,
          "implied_under": 0.2688,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.64,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0656,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [],
        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.662,
          "draw_prob": 0.2089,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6089,
          "over_prob": 0.704,
          "total_xg": 3.64,
          "under_prob": 0.296,
          "xg_diff": 1.1
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        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": {
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        "ev": 0.0656,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.2688,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.296,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0656,
          "implied_prob": 0.2688,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.296,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0477,
          "ev": -0.1309,
          "implied_prob": 0.7012,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6089,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Alemannia Aachen"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0244,
          "ev": -0.0269,
          "implied_prob": 0.6376,
          "model_prob": 0.662,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0272,
          "ev": 0.0656,
          "implied_prob": 0.2688,
          "model_prob": 0.296,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1394423,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.0656,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1822,
        "draw": 0.2089,
        "home": 0.6089
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Havelse",
        "home": "Alemannia Aachen"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1394423,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T11:59:20.842716+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}