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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Fehérvár FC Budafoki LC ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Budafoki LC win · Fehérvár FC 1–3 Budafoki LC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "ae013d286ac24398541fddc010a1e2ea193fa0913aee305905c189b019990c66",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0904,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5081,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 62.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 72.4,
"no_prob": 55.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 55.1,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 44.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.0,
"home_expected": 1.45,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC or Budafoki LC",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Budafoki LC",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.45,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 44.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.45,
"under_prob": 55.7
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Budafoki LC",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": -9.04,
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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},
{
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.85,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.9,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0359,
"ev_yes": -0.1918,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0359,
"no_prob": 55.1,
"sort_key": 10032.31,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 44.9
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 44.3,
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1791,
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC",
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"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2399,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2399.webp",
"away_team_name": "Budafoki LC",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
"country_name": "Hungary",
"fixture_id": 1394046,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 610,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/610.webp",
"home_team_name": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC",
"league_country": "Hungary",
"league_id": 272,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/272.webp",
"league_name": "Nemzeti Bajnoks\u00e1g II",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2611,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0103,
"implied_prob": 0.2393,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.2618
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"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2982,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0912,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5186,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.1791,
"implied_prob": 0.5081,
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"p_final": 0.4612
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.058,
"edge_yes": -0.058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0359,
"ev_yes": -0.1918,
"implied_no": 0.493,
"implied_yes": 0.507,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.81,
"edge_over": -0.0286,
"edge_under": 0.0286,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0786,
"ev_under": 0.0082,
"implied_over": 0.4716,
"implied_under": 0.5284,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0359,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.449,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.443,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.557,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0359,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.493,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.551,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0469,
"ev": -0.1791,
"implied_prob": 0.5081,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.058,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.493,
"model_prob": 0.551,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0286,
"ev": 0.0082,
"implied_prob": 0.5284,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1394046,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0359,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Budafoki LC",
"home": "Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1r FC"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1394046,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:00:09.981137+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Nemzeti Bajnokság II — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 2 | Budapest Honvéd | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 30 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 51 |
| 4 | Kozarmisleny FC | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 5 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Csákvár | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | BVSC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Tiszakecske FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Szeged 2011 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 11 | Karcag SE | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 |
| 12 | Ajka | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 13 | Soroksár SC | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Szentlőrinc SE | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 33 |
| 15 | Budafoki LC | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 29 |
| 16 | Békéscsaba 1912 | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 30 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Budapest Honvéd | 30 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 59 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 30 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 51 |
| 4 | Csákvár | 30 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 46 |
| 5 | Soroksár SC | 30 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 33 |
| 6 | Kozarmisleny FC | 30 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 48 |
| 7 | Fehérvár FC | 30 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 39 |
| 8 | Mezőkövesd-Zsóry | 30 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 46 |
| 9 | Tiszakecske FC | 30 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | BVSC | 30 | 36 | 30 | +6 | 41 |
| 11 | Szentlőrinc SE | 30 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 | Budafoki LC | 30 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 30 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Karcag SE | 30 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 35 |
| 15 | Békéscsaba 1912 | 30 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 28 |
| 16 | Ajka | 30 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 33 |
