Statistics / Football / Ukraine. Premier League / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava Statistics & Analysis

May 23, 2026 - 12:30
0 2.27
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 39%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "8b8d1d3f6dfc72e4363968bee63fb9603aa887b5e4b6a6c9b6518b5c7f730eaa",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.16,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1723,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.373,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.627,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2154,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.8,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.64,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.63,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.27,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6122,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.666,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.334
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.16,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0791,
        "edge_gap": 0.3974,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6917,
        "model_prob": 0.6126,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 17.2,
          "draw": 21.5,
          "home": 61.3
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 1.38
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 1.35
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 1.33
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 1.33
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
          "odd": 1.32
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.31
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 1.31
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
          "odd": 1.3
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.38,
        "bookmaker_affi": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
        "bookmaker_id": 9,
        "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
        "display_market": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.45,
        "market_odds": 1.31,
        "model_odds": 1.63,
        "overround": 10.0,
        "prob_edge": -11.1,
        "value_pct": -15.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 1,
        "away_failed_to_score": 14,
        "away_played": 29,
        "away_score_rate": 68.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 29,
        "home_score_rate": 89.7,
        "no_prob": 37.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 62.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 62.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.16,
        "home_expected": 2.27,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 7.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Draw",
            "prob": 82.7
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or SK Poltava",
            "prob": 78.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or SK Poltava",
            "prob": 38.7
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 82.7
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 17.2,
        "draw_pct": 21.5,
        "home_pct": 61.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.43,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 66.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.43,
        "under_prob": 33.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 1,
        "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
        "edge": 46.2,
        "implied_prob": 11.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "SK Poltava Win",
        "model_prob": 17.2,
        "odds": 8.5
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.27,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.254,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -25.4,
          "text": "-25.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1349,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 13.5,
          "text": "+13.5%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1349,
        "no_prob": 37.3,
        "sort_key": 10271.41,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 62.7
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.001,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -0.1,
          "text": "-0.1%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1082,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -10.8,
          "text": "-10.8%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.001,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "sort_key": 4049.86,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 33.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1433,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -14.3,
          "text": "-14.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6947,
        "max_ev": -0.0182,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -1.8,
          "text": "-1.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.6126,
        "side_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
        "sort_key": 1795.45,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 17165,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17165.webp",
      "away_team_name": "SK Poltava",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
      "country_name": "Ukraine",
      "fixture_id": 1391623,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 14434,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14434.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
      "league_country": "Ukraine",
      "league_id": 333,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-29 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1851,
            "best_odd": 7.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0092,
            "ev": -0.0182,
            "implied_prob": 0.1226,
            "model_prob": 0.1722,
            "p_final": 0.1318
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1902,
            "best_odd": 5.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0062,
            "ev": -0.0556,
            "implied_prob": 0.1827,
            "model_prob": 0.2152,
            "p_final": 0.1889
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5261,
            "best_odd": 1.315,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0432,
            "ev": -0.1433,
            "implied_prob": 0.6947,
            "model_prob": 0.6126,
            "p_final": 0.6515
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.0,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.81,
          "edge_no": -0.0989,
          "edge_yes": 0.0989,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.254,
          "ev_yes": 0.1349,
          "implied_no": 0.4719,
          "implied_yes": 0.5281,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.5,
          "best_under_odd": 2.67,
          "edge_over": 0.033,
          "edge_under": -0.033,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.001,
          "ev_under": -0.1082,
          "implied_over": 0.633,
          "implied_under": 0.367,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.43,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1349,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 7.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.627,
          "draw_prob": 0.2152,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6126,
          "over_prob": 0.666,
          "total_xg": 3.43,
          "under_prob": 0.334,
          "xg_diff": 1.11
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0432,
          "ev": -0.1433,
          "implied_prob": 0.6947,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6126,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0989,
          "ev": 0.1349,
          "implied_prob": 0.5281,
          "model_prob": 0.627,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.033,
          "ev": -0.001,
          "implied_prob": 0.633,
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1391623,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1349,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1722,
        "draw": 0.2152,
        "home": 0.6126
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "SK Poltava",
        "home": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.084582,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1349,
        "implied_prob": 0.5281,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.627,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1391623,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-28T00:25:49.287459+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier LeagueStandings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 30 22 6 2 72
2 LNZ Cherkasy 30 18 6 6 60
3 Polessya 30 18 5 7 59
4 Dynamo Kyiv 30 17 6 7 57
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 30 13 12 5 51
6 Kolos Kovalivka 30 13 10 7 49
7 Kryvbas KR 30 13 9 8 48
8 Zorya Luhansk 30 12 10 8 46
9 Karpaty 30 10 11 9 41
10 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30 8 8 14 32
11 Veres Rivne 30 7 10 13 31
12 Obolon'-Brovar 30 7 10 13 31
13 Kudrivka 30 7 7 16 28
14 Ruh Lviv 30 6 3 21 21
15 Oleksandria 30 3 8 19 17
16 SK Poltava 30 2 7 21 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 30 71 21 +50 72
2 Dynamo Kyiv 30 66 36 +30 57
3 Kryvbas KR 30 53 46 +7 48
4 Polessya 30 51 21 +30 59
5 Zorya Luhansk 30 42 36 +6 46
6 Karpaty 30 40 31 +9 41
7 LNZ Cherkasy 30 39 17 +22 60
8 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 30 36 19 +17 51
9 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30 36 45 -9 32
10 Kudrivka 30 32 48 -16 28
11 Kolos Kovalivka 30 30 25 +5 49
12 Obolon'-Brovar 30 28 49 -21 31
13 Veres Rivne 30 26 40 -14 31
14 Oleksandria 30 24 58 -34 17
15 SK Poltava 30 23 74 -51 13
16 Ruh Lviv 30 20 51 -31 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dynamo Kyiv 30 30.7 10.1 +20.6 57
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 30 29.8 9.8 +20.0 72
3 Polessya 30 36.9 18.0 +18.9 59
4 LNZ Cherkasy 30 28.4 12.4 +16.0 60
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 30 22.0 12.7 +9.3 51
6 Karpaty 30 24.4 20.0 +4.4 41
7 Kolos Kovalivka 30 22.6 22.2 +0.4 49
8 Zorya Luhansk 30 22.1 22.9 -0.8 46
9 Veres Rivne 30 12.6 16.5 -3.9 31
10 Obolon'-Brovar 30 17.2 23.2 -6.0 31
11 Kryvbas KR 30 21.4 27.8 -6.4 48
12 Ruh Lviv 30 16.6 23.8 -7.2 21
13 Kudrivka 30 17.4 29.0 -11.6 28
14 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30 18.9 32.2 -13.3 32
15 Oleksandria 30 10.5 25.0 -14.5 17
16 SK Poltava 30 10.1 36.0 -25.9 13