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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Villarreal Villarreal ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "03dffbf9e088eccd2f94b088686f23d11c459ab7e96ecc0e30b24f5ca5b392df",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.269,
"btts_no_prob": 0.379,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.621,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2596,
"fair_odds_away": 3.72,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.85,
"fair_odds_home": 2.12,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.78,
"home_win_prob": 0.4713,
"over_25_prob": 0.597,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.403
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Atletico Madrid",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Villarreal",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Atletico Madrid"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Villarreal",
"confidence": 47.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Villarreal",
"edge": 0.0903,
"edge_gap": 0.2028,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.9,
"draw": 26.0,
"home": 47.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Villarreal"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.55
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.55,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Villarreal Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.62,
"market_odds": 2.55,
"model_odds": 2.12,
"overround": 2.8,
"prob_edge": 8.0,
"value_pct": 20.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 83.1,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 62.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.78,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Villarreal or Draw",
"prob": 73.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Villarreal or Atletico Madrid",
"prob": 74.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atletico Madrid",
"prob": 52.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Villarreal or Atletico Madrid",
"pick_prob": 74.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.9,
"draw_pct": 26.0,
"home_pct": 47.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Villarreal"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.09,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 59.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.09,
"under_prob": 40.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.3,
"implied_prob": 39.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Villarreal Win",
"model_prob": 47.2,
"odds": 2.55
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atletico Madrid",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Villarreal",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.13,
"gap_pp": 9.03,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 47.16
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.62,
"gap_pp": 1.35,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.25,
"gap_pp": -10.38,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.09,
"gap_pp": -8.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.91,
"gap_pp": 8.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 40.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.13,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.95,
"early": 3.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.62,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.61,
"early": 2.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.25,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 68.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 68.09,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.91,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.78,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1045,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.4,
"text": "-10.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2493,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.9,
"text": "+24.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2493,
"over_prob": 59.7,
"sort_key": 10374.37,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 40.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2355,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.5,
"text": "+23.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.112,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.2,
"text": "-11.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2355,
"no_prob": 37.9,
"sort_key": 10211.95,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 62.1
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"side_label": "Villarreal",
"sort_key": 10055.71,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 530,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/530.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atletico Madrid",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1391198,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/533.webp",
"home_team_name": "Villarreal",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "La Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3799,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0394,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.3725,
"model_prob": 0.2687,
"p_final": 0.3331
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2939,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.004,
"ev": -0.012,
"implied_prob": 0.2462,
"model_prob": 0.2597,
"p_final": 0.2501
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3891,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"p_final": 0.4164
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.26,
"best_yes_odd": 1.43,
"edge_no": 0.0699,
"edge_yes": -0.0699,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2355,
"ev_yes": -0.112,
"implied_no": 0.3091,
"implied_yes": 0.6909,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 3.1,
"edge_over": -0.075,
"edge_under": 0.075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1045,
"ev_under": 0.2493,
"implied_over": 0.672,
"implied_under": 0.328,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.09,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2493,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.621,
"draw_prob": 0.2597,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4716,
"over_prob": 0.597,
"total_xg": 3.09,
"under_prob": 0.403,
"xg_diff": 0.47
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0351,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Villarreal"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0699,
"ev": 0.2355,
"implied_prob": 0.3091,
"model_prob": 0.379,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.075,
"ev": 0.2493,
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"model_prob": 0.403,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1391198,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2493,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2687,
"draw": 0.2597,
"home": 0.4716
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Villarreal",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4716,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Villarreal",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atletico Madrid",
"home": "Villarreal"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.095445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2493,
"implied_prob": 0.328,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.403,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1391198,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T19:01:20.020448+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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La Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 29 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 46 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 54 |
| 8 | Elche | 38 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 42 |
| 10 | Levante | 38 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 43 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 38 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 |
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 46 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 38 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 45 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 50 |
| 18 | Girona | 38 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 41 |
| 19 | Getafe | 38 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 51 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 29 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 86.7 | 45.6 | +41.1 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 74.8 | 40.1 | +34.7 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 57.8 | 45.0 | +12.8 | 72 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 58.0 | 48.5 | +9.5 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 54.7 | 45.5 | +9.2 | 60 |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 38 | 49.4 | 40.5 | +8.9 | 45 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 49.3 | 46.3 | +3.0 | 49 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50.1 | 48.0 | +2.1 | 50 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 49.7 | 49.4 | +0.3 | 54 |
| 10 | Alaves | 38 | 46.1 | 47.4 | -1.3 | 43 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 38 | 45.5 | 49.1 | -3.6 | 42 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 38 | 48.4 | 53.8 | -5.4 | 46 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 49.0 | 54.7 | -5.7 | 46 |
| 14 | Levante | 38 | 51.5 | 59.3 | -7.8 | 42 |
| 15 | Girona | 38 | 45.6 | 55.4 | -9.8 | 41 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 30.2 | 40.8 | -10.6 | 51 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 38 | 38.0 | 54.0 | -16.0 | 43 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 43.1 | 61.9 | -18.8 | 42 |
| 19 | Elche | 38 | 40.5 | 60.1 | -19.6 | 43 |
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 34.3 | 57.3 | -23.0 | 29 |
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