Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Statistics & Analysis

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  "content_hash": "19bc1bec2db323a501db492797e8d0b991fc048b578567f5e8e22d9b9136f09f",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.49,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3771,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2771,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.65,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.61,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.89,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3459,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Villarreal",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Villarreal"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.49,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Villarreal",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1017,
        "edge_gap": 0.0313,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2755,
        "model_prob": 0.3772,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 37.7,
          "draw": 27.7,
          "home": 34.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.53
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 3.53,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Villarreal Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.63,
        "market_odds": 3.53,
        "model_odds": 2.65,
        "overround": 2.8,
        "prob_edge": 9.4,
        "value_pct": 33.2,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 77.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 12,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 75.8,
        "no_prob": 39.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 60.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.49,
        "home_expected": 1.42,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.5
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 7.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Rayo Vallecano or Draw",
            "prob": 62.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Rayo Vallecano or Villarreal",
            "prob": 72.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Villarreal",
            "prob": 65.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Rayo Vallecano or Villarreal",
        "pick_prob": 72.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 37.7,
        "draw_pct": 27.7,
        "home_pct": 34.6,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Villarreal"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.91,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.9,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 55.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 55.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.91,
        "under_prob": 44.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 33.2,
        "implied_prob": 28.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Villarreal Win",
        "model_prob": 37.7,
        "odds": 3.53
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Villarreal",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.09,
          "gap_pp": -11.5,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 34.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.36,
          "gap_pp": 1.33,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 27.69
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.55,
          "gap_pp": 10.17,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 37.72
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 55.24,
          "gap_pp": 0.36,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 55.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 44.76,
          "gap_pp": -0.36,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 44.4
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.11,
          "early": 2.11,
          "implied_closing_pct": 46.09,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 46.09,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.69,
          "early": 3.69,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.36,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 26.36,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.53,
          "early": 3.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.55,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.55,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.75,
          "early": 1.75,
          "implied_closing_pct": 55.24,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 55.24,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.16,
          "early": 2.16,
          "implied_closing_pct": 44.76,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 44.76,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 10.2,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.42,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0638,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2755,
        "max_ev": 0.0638,
        "model_prob": 0.3772,
        "side_label": "Villarreal",
        "sort_key": 10207.42,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0159,
        "ev_under": -0.0143,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0143,
        "over_prob": 55.6,
        "sort_key": 1796.425,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 44.4,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0647,
        "ev_yes": -0.0368,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0368,
        "no_prob": 39.8,
        "sort_key": 1790.8,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 60.2
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 814.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.5
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 533,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/533.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Villarreal",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1391185,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 728,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/728.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 140,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
      "league_name": "La Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2542,
            "best_odd": 3.53,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0259,
            "ev": 0.0638,
            "implied_prob": 0.2755,
            "model_prob": 0.3772,
            "p_final": 0.3014
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.294,
            "best_odd": 3.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0039,
            "ev": -0.013,
            "implied_prob": 0.2636,
            "model_prob": 0.2769,
            "p_final": 0.2675
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3723,
            "best_odd": 2.11,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0428,
            "ev": -0.1178,
            "implied_prob": 0.4609,
            "model_prob": 0.3459,
            "p_final": 0.4181
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.35,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_no": -0.0105,
          "edge_yes": 0.0105,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0647,
          "ev_yes": -0.0368,
          "implied_no": 0.4085,
          "implied_yes": 0.5915,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.77,
          "best_under_odd": 2.22,
          "edge_over": 0.0045,
          "edge_under": -0.0045,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0159,
          "ev_under": -0.0143,
          "implied_over": 0.5515,
          "implied_under": 0.4485,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.91,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0638,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.602,
          "draw_prob": 0.2769,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3772,
          "over_prob": 0.556,
          "total_xg": 2.91,
          "under_prob": 0.444,
          "xg_diff": 0.07
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0259,
          "ev": 0.0638,
          "implied_prob": 0.2755,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3772,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Villarreal"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0105,
          "ev": -0.0368,
          "implied_prob": 0.5915,
          "model_prob": 0.602,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": -0.0045,
          "ev": -0.0143,
          "implied_prob": 0.4485,
          "model_prob": 0.444,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1391185,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0638,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3772,
        "draw": 0.2769,
        "home": 0.3459
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Villarreal",
        "home": "Rayo Vallecano"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.019252,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0638,
        "implied_prob": 0.2755,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.3772,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Villarreal",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1391185,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:59:12.186122+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}