Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_win_prob": 0.2992,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3134,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.34,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.19,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.58,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3874,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Athletic Club or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Athletic Club"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.08,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Athletic Club",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0452,
        "edge_gap": 0.0741,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4326,
        "model_prob": 0.3874,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 29.9,
          "draw": 31.3,
          "home": 38.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.25
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.25,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Athletic Club Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.31,
        "market_odds": 2.25,
        "model_odds": 2.58,
        "overround": 2.7,
        "prob_edge": -5.7,
        "value_pct": -12.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 66.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 71.6,
        "no_prob": 51.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 51.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 49.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.08,
        "home_expected": 1.26,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.1
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.4
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 9.6
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.3
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
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            "key": "12",
            "label": "Athletic Club or Celta Vigo",
            "prob": 68.6
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            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 61.2
          }
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        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 70.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 29.9,
        "draw_pct": 31.3,
        "home_pct": 38.7,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.34,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 41.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.34,
        "under_prob": 58.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 6.4,
        "implied_prob": 28.1,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Celta Vigo Win",
        "model_prob": 29.9,
        "odds": 3.56
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Celta Vigo",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Athletic Club",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 43.26,
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          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 38.74
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          "closing_implied_pct": 29.4,
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          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 29.93
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 44.39,
          "gap_pp": -2.99,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 41.4
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 55.61,
          "gap_pp": 2.99,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 58.6
        }
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.25,
          "early": 2.25,
          "implied_closing_pct": 43.26,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 43.26,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.31,
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        {
          "closing": 2.18,
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        {
          "closing": 1.74,
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          "kind": "ou_u"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.26,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.0431,
        "featured": true,
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        "under_prob": 58.6,
        "value_side": "under"
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4326,
        "max_ev": -0.0002,
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        "sort_key": 2199.984,
        "tier": "pass"
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      {
        "decision": "lean",
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 538,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/538.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Celta Vigo",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1391179,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 531,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/531.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Athletic Club",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 140,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
      "league_name": "La Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2884,
            "best_odd": 3.56,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0081,
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            "p_final": 0.2997
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4195,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0693,
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            "p_final": 0.4136
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.85,
          "edge_no": 0.0198,
          "edge_yes": -0.0198,
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          "ev_no": -0.0055,
          "ev_yes": -0.0935,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5098,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.78,
          "edge_over": -0.0353,
          "edge_under": 0.0353,
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          "implied_over": 0.4493,
          "implied_under": 0.5507,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.34,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
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        "score": 3.5
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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        "hero_display_only": true,
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          "max_ev_side": "away",
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          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Athletic Club"
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        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
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          "model_prob": 0.51,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "value_side": "under"
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      },
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        "away": 0.2993,
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Celta Vigo",
        "home": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:59:08.328553+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}