Estadísticas / Fútbol / Germany. 2. Bundesliga / SV Elversberg vs Preußen Münster

SV Elversberg vs Preußen Münster Statistics & Analysis

May 17, 2026 - 13:30
3 2.40
0 0.78
xG Accuracy: 68%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg ✔ Correct
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "b891635c5413bf491548140b4d4f07fb8a089af9d7eb0b6d8701cee99478e315",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.78,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0926,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1847,
      "fair_odds_away": 10.79,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.42,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.38,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.4,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7227,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : SV Elversberg or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "SV Elversberg"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.78,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "SV Elversberg",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0755,
        "edge_gap": 0.5392,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7989,
        "model_prob": 0.7233,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 9.3,
          "draw": 18.4,
          "home": 72.3
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.19
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.19,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "SV Elversberg Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.25,
        "market_odds": 1.19,
        "model_odds": 1.38,
        "overround": 5.2,
        "prob_edge": -11.6,
        "value_pct": -13.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 54.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 90.9,
        "no_prob": 49.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 50.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 50.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.78,
        "home_expected": 2.4,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 12.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 7.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "SV Elversberg or Draw",
            "prob": 90.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "SV Elversberg or Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
            "prob": 81.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
            "prob": 27.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "SV Elversberg or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 90.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 9.3,
        "draw_pct": 18.5,
        "home_pct": 72.3,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "SV Elversberg"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.18,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 61.6,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.18,
        "under_prob": 38.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 38.4,
        "implied_prob": 13.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 18.5,
        "odds": 7.48
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "SV Elversberg",
      "largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 1.54,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 79.89,
          "gap_pp": -7.55,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 72.33
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 12.71,
          "gap_pp": 5.71,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 18.42
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 7.4,
          "gap_pp": 1.85,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 9.25
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 70.61,
          "gap_pp": -9.01,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 61.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.39,
          "gap_pp": 9.01,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 38.4
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.19,
          "early": 1.21,
          "implied_closing_pct": 79.89,
          "implied_delta_pp": 1.13,
          "implied_early_pct": 78.75,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 7.48,
          "early": 7.13,
          "implied_closing_pct": 12.71,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.66,
          "implied_early_pct": 13.36,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 12.84,
          "early": 12.09,
          "implied_closing_pct": 7.4,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.48,
          "implied_early_pct": 7.88,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.34,
          "early": 1.37,
          "implied_closing_pct": 70.61,
          "implied_delta_pp": 1.54,
          "implied_early_pct": 69.07,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.22,
          "early": 3.06,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.39,
          "implied_delta_pp": -1.54,
          "implied_early_pct": 30.93,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": false,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 9.0,
        "kind": "ou_u"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 12.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.4,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1438,
        "ev_under": 0.1904,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1904,
        "over_prob": 61.6,
        "sort_key": 10321.36,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 38.4,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0972,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7989,
        "max_ev": 0.0287,
        "model_prob": 0.7233,
        "side_label": "SV Elversberg",
        "sort_key": 5222.96,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.006,
        "ev_yes": -0.0795,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.006,
        "no_prob": 49.7,
        "sort_key": 1798.5,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 50.3
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 816.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 12.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1313,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1313.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388913,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1660,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1660.webp",
      "home_team_name": "SV Elversberg",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 79,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
      "league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-17 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1945,
            "best_odd": 12.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0036,
            "ev": -0.0032,
            "implied_prob": 0.074,
            "model_prob": 0.0925,
            "p_final": 0.0776
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1829,
            "best_odd": 7.48,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0104,
            "ev": 0.0287,
            "implied_prob": 0.1271,
            "model_prob": 0.1842,
            "p_final": 0.1375
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.532,
            "best_odd": 1.19,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0402,
            "ev": -0.0972,
            "implied_prob": 0.7989,
            "model_prob": 0.7233,
            "p_final": 0.7587
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.0,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.83,
          "edge_no": 0.0184,
          "edge_yes": -0.0184,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.006,
          "ev_yes": -0.0795,
          "implied_no": 0.4786,
          "implied_yes": 0.5214,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.39,
          "best_under_odd": 3.1,
          "edge_over": -0.0756,
          "edge_under": 0.0756,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1438,
          "ev_under": 0.1904,
          "implied_over": 0.6916,
          "implied_under": 0.3084,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.18,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1904,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.503,
          "draw_prob": 0.1842,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7233,
          "over_prob": 0.616,
          "total_xg": 3.18,
          "under_prob": 0.384,
          "xg_diff": 1.62
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0287,
          "implied_prob": 0.1271,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1842,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0402,
          "ev": -0.0972,
          "implied_prob": 0.7989,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.7233,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "SV Elversberg"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0184,
          "ev": -0.006,
          "implied_prob": 0.4786,
          "model_prob": 0.497,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0756,
          "ev": 0.1904,
          "implied_prob": 0.3084,
          "model_prob": 0.384,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388913,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1904,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0925,
        "draw": 0.1842,
        "home": 0.7233
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster",
        "home": "SV Elversberg"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.073114,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1904,
        "implied_prob": 0.3084,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.384,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388913,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T13:29:17.158224+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
2. Bundesliga 2. BundesligaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 FC Schalke 04 33 20 7 6 67
2 SV Elversberg 33 17 8 8 59
3 Hannover 96 33 16 11 6 59
4 SC Paderborn 07 33 17 8 8 59
5 SV Darmstadt 98 33 13 13 7 52
6 Hertha BSC 33 14 9 10 51
7 1. FC Kaiserslautern 33 15 4 14 49
8 1. FC Nürnberg 33 12 9 12 45
9 Karlsruher SC 33 12 8 13 44
10 VfL Bochum 33 10 11 12 41
11 Holstein Kiel 33 11 8 14 41
12 1. FC Magdeburg 33 12 3 18 39
13 Dynamo Dresden 33 10 8 15 38
14 Eintracht Braunschweig 33 10 7 16 37
15 Fortuna Düsseldorf 33 11 4 18 37
16 Arminia Bielefeld 33 9 9 15 36
17 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33 9 7 17 34
18 Preußen Münster 33 6 12 15 30
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Elversberg 33 61 39 +22 59
2 Hannover 96 33 57 41 +16 59
3 SV Darmstadt 98 33 57 43 +14 52
4 SC Paderborn 07 33 57 45 +12 59
5 Dynamo Dresden 33 52 52 0 38
6 1. FC Magdeburg 33 52 57 -5 39
7 Karlsruher SC 33 52 62 -10 44
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 33 51 47 +4 49
9 FC Schalke 04 33 49 31 +18 67
10 VfL Bochum 33 47 46 +1 41
11 Arminia Bielefeld 33 47 50 -3 36
12 Hertha BSC 33 46 38 +8 51
13 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33 46 68 -22 34
14 1. FC Nürnberg 33 44 42 +2 45
15 Holstein Kiel 33 43 46 -3 41
16 Preußen Münster 33 38 58 -20 30
17 Eintracht Braunschweig 33 36 53 -17 37
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 33 33 50 -17 37
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Schalke 04 33 51.0 30.4 +20.6 67
2 SC Paderborn 07 33 58.1 38.1 +20.0 59
3 Hannover 96 33 55.4 38.5 +16.9 59
4 SV Elversberg 33 51.6 37.3 +14.3 59
5 1. FC Magdeburg 33 52.6 45.9 +6.7 39
6 Arminia Bielefeld 33 50.3 46.2 +4.1 36
7 VfL Bochum 33 51.9 48.6 +3.3 41
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 33 46.2 44.1 +2.1 49
9 1. FC Nürnberg 33 46.2 44.2 +2.0 45
10 SV Darmstadt 98 33 52.1 51.8 +0.3 52
11 Dynamo Dresden 33 43.2 43.9 -0.7 38
12 Hertha BSC 33 44.7 51.4 -6.7 51
13 Fortuna Düsseldorf 33 40.3 49.4 -9.1 37
14 Eintracht Braunschweig 33 36.7 48.1 -11.4 37
15 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33 39.4 51.4 -12.0 34
16 Holstein Kiel 33 41.0 53.1 -12.1 41
17 Preußen Münster 33 36.7 55.9 -19.2 30
18 Karlsruher SC 33 42.5 61.9 -19.4 44