FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Statistics & Analysis

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  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3427,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3098,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.92,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.23,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.88,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3475,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or VfL Wolfsburg",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "VfL Wolfsburg"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.2,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "FC St. Pauli",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0089,
        "edge_gap": 0.0048,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3564,
        "model_prob": 0.3475,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.3,
          "draw": 31.0,
          "home": 34.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.73
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.73,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "FC St. Pauli Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.81,
        "market_odds": 2.73,
        "model_odds": 2.88,
        "overround": 2.8,
        "prob_edge": -1.9,
        "value_pct": -5.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 69.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 70.2,
        "no_prob": 49.3,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 50.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 50.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.2,
        "home_expected": 1.21,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.9
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.8
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "0-0",
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.9
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "FC St. Pauli or Draw",
            "prob": 65.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "FC St. Pauli or VfL Wolfsburg",
            "prob": 69.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or VfL Wolfsburg",
            "prob": 65.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "FC St. Pauli or VfL Wolfsburg",
        "pick_prob": 69.1
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.3,
        "draw_pct": 31.0,
        "home_pct": 34.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "FC St. Pauli"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.41,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "over_prob": 43.3,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 56.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.41,
        "under_prob": 56.7
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 13.2,
        "implied_prob": 27.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 31.0,
        "odds": 3.65
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "VfL Wolfsburg",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "FC St. Pauli",
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      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 35.64,
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          "model_pct": 34.75
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          "closing_implied_pct": 26.65,
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        {
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          "gap_pp": -12.06,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 43.3
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 44.64,
          "gap_pp": 12.06,
          "kind": "ou_u",
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        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.73,
          "early": 2.73,
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          "implied_early_pct": 35.64,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.17,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 44.64,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "top_value_gap": {
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 13.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.21,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.2644,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 43.3,
        "sort_key": 10387.96,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 56.7,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "tier": "best",
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        "decision": "no_bet",
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3564,
        "max_ev": 0.0172,
        "model_prob": 0.3475,
        "side_label": "FC St. Pauli",
        "sort_key": 5213.76,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 13.0
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 161,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/161.webp",
      "away_team_name": "VfL Wolfsburg",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388611,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 186,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/186.webp",
      "home_team_name": "FC St. Pauli",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "markets": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.3771,
            "model_prob": 0.3427,
            "p_final": 0.3624
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.444,
            "best_odd": 2.73,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.0379,
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            "p_final": 0.3524
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "n_bookmakers": 10,
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_under": 0.1271,
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          "implied_over": 0.5601,
          "implied_under": 0.4399,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.41,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2644,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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      },
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.507,
          "draw_prob": 0.3098,
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          "total_xg": 2.41,
          "under_prob": 0.567,
          "xg_diff": 0.01
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3475,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "FC St. Pauli"
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        "btts": {
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          "value_side": "no"
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        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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      },
      "match_id": 1388611,
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        "away": 0.3427,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "slot": "secondary"
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        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "VfL Wolfsburg",
        "home": "FC St. Pauli"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
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  "fixture_id": 1388611,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:29:09.298826+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}