Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim Statistics & Analysis

May 16, 2026 - 13:30

4 1.37

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 34%

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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
1X2 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach ✔ Correcto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 12:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3759515

Closing Odds 1.63

AI Fair Odds 2.76

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Borussia Mönchengladbach win · Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–0 1899 Hoffenheim

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Probability Calibration

Expected: 36.2%
Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Borussia Mönchengladbach (1X2),Dibujar (1X2),Menos de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Menos de 2,5 goles en unos 19.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado	Modelo %	Implícita cierre %	Brecha (pp)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (1X2)	36.2	20.2	+16.1
Dibujar (1X2)	28.9	20.4	+8.5
1899 Hoffenheim (1X2)	34.9	59.4	-24.6
Más de 2,5 goles	50.9	70.1	-19.2
Menos de 2,5 goles	49.1	29.9	+19.2

Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 49.1% en Menos de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 29.9%. La diferencia —unos 19.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea

Mercado	Temprano (PRE30)	Cierre (PRE1)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (1X2)	4.8	4.8
Dibujar (1X2)	4.75	4.75
1899 Hoffenheim (1X2)	1.63	1.63
Más de 2,5 goles	1.37	1.37
Menos de 2,5 goles	3.21	3.21

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON

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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:29:12.844707+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Bundesliga — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	Bayern Múnich	34	28	5	1	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	62
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	59
7	SC Friburgo	34	13	8	13	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	44
9	FC Augsburgo	34	12	7	15	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	39
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	9	11	14	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	38
14	1. FC Colonia	34	7	11	16	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	26
18	FC St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	26

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	Bayern Múnich	34	122	36	+86	89
2	VfB Stuttgart	34	71	49	+22	62
3	Borussia Dortmund	34	70	34	+36	73
4	Bayer Leverkusen	34	68	47	+21	59
5	RB Leipzig	34	66	47	+19	65
6	1899 Hoffenheim	34	65	52	+13	61
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	61	65	-4	44
8	SC Friburgo	34	51	57	-6	47
9	1. FC Colonia	34	49	63	-14	32
10	FC Augsburgo	34	45	61	-16	43
11	VfL Wolfsburg	34	45	69	-24	29
12	FSV Mainz 05	34	44	53	-9	40
13	Union Berlin	34	44	58	-14	39
14	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	42	53	-11	38
15	1. FC Heidenheim	34	41	72	-31	26
16	Hamburger SV	34	40	54	-14	38
17	Werder Bremen	34	37	60	-23	32
18	FC St. Pauli	34	29	60	-31	26

#	EQUIPO	PJ	xG	xGC	+/-	Pts
1	Bayern Múnich	34	97.2	37.9	+59.3	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	63.4	38.9	+24.5	73
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	64.0	44.8	+19.2	59
4	RB Leipzig	34	66.3	50.2	+16.1	65
5	VfB Stuttgart	34	60.1	49.8	+10.3	62
6	1899 Hoffenheim	34	55.1	51.4	+3.7	61
7	SC Friburgo	34	48.6	47.8	+0.8	47
8	FSV Mainz 05	34	52.9	54.6	-1.7	40
9	1. FC Colonia	34	50.9	54.9	-4.0	32
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	45.4	50.1	-4.7	44
11	Union Berlin	34	44.9	52.2	-7.3	39
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	42.7	52.5	-9.8	38
13	Werder Bremen	34	40.4	54.3	-13.9	32
14	VfL Wolfsburg	34	47.1	61.8	-14.7	29
15	1. FC Heidenheim	34	47.5	63.4	-15.9	26
16	FC Augsburgo	34	45.2	62.6	-17.4	43
17	Hamburger SV	34	38.3	56.9	-18.6	38
18	FC St. Pauli	34	30.5	56.2	-25.7	26