Estadísticas / Fútbol / Germany. Bundesliga / Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln

Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln Statistics & Analysis

May 16, 2026 - 13:30
5 3.14
1 1.58
xG Accuracy: 51%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bayern München Bayern München ✔ Correct
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 3-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "90d0899b4c753017cbf6df76968441d12487a0cfadaad6ad6789f1aa292a99fe",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.58,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1592,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1613,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.28,
      "fair_odds_draw": 6.2,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.47,
      "home_predicted_xg": 3.14,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6795,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Winner : Bayern M\u00fcnchen and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.58,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1464,
        "edge_gap": 0.5186,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.8261,
        "model_prob": 0.6797,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 15.9,
          "draw": 16.1,
          "home": 68.0
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.16
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.16,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.21,
        "market_odds": 1.16,
        "model_odds": 1.47,
        "overround": 4.4,
        "prob_edge": -18.2,
        "value_pct": -21.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 79.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 12,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 95.7,
        "no_prob": 23.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 76.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 76.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.58,
        "home_expected": 3.14,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 6.9
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-2",
            "prob": 5.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 4,
            "label": "4-1",
            "prob": 5.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 5.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen or Draw",
            "prob": 84.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen or 1. FC K\u00f6ln",
            "prob": 83.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or 1. FC K\u00f6ln",
            "prob": 32.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 84.1
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 15.9,
        "draw_pct": 16.1,
        "home_pct": 68.0,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 4.72,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 3.5,
        "over_prob": 85.0,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 85.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 4.72,
        "under_prob": 15.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 118.8,
        "implied_prob": 7.3,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "1. FC K\u00f6ln Win",
        "model_prob": 15.9,
        "odds": 13.76
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "1. FC K\u00f6ln",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 82.61,
          "gap_pp": -14.64,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 67.97
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 10.43,
          "gap_pp": 5.69,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 16.12
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 6.96,
          "gap_pp": 8.95,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 15.91
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.16,
          "early": 1.16,
          "implied_closing_pct": 82.61,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 82.61,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 9.19,
          "early": 9.19,
          "implied_closing_pct": 10.43,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 10.43,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 13.76,
          "early": 13.76,
          "implied_closing_pct": 6.96,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 6.96,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 8.9,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "3-1",
        "prob": 7.3
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 3.14,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.342,
        "ev_yes": 0.1475,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1475,
        "no_prob": 23.5,
        "sort_key": 10282.75,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 76.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0395,
        "ev_under": 0.05,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.05,
        "over_prob": 85.0,
        "sort_key": 10045.0,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 15.0,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1212,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.8261,
        "max_ev": 0.1714,
        "model_prob": 0.6797,
        "side_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "sort_key": 5337.12,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 801.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "3-1",
        "top_prob": 7.3
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 192,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/192.webp",
      "away_team_name": "1. FC K\u00f6ln",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388606,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 157,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/157.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1732,
            "best_odd": 13.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0155,
            "ev": 0.1714,
            "implied_prob": 0.0696,
            "model_prob": 0.1591,
            "p_final": 0.0851
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1829,
            "best_odd": 9.19,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0104,
            "ev": 0.0539,
            "implied_prob": 0.1043,
            "model_prob": 0.1612,
            "p_final": 0.1147
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4683,
            "best_odd": 1.16,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0685,
            "ev": -0.1212,
            "implied_prob": 0.8261,
            "model_prob": 0.6797,
            "p_final": 0.7576
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.8,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": -0.1207,
          "edge_yes": 0.1207,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.342,
          "ev_yes": 0.1475,
          "implied_no": 0.3557,
          "implied_yes": 0.6443,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.13,
          "best_under_odd": 7.0,
          "edge_over": 0.0014,
          "edge_under": -0.0014,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0395,
          "ev_under": 0.05,
          "implied_over": 0.8486,
          "implied_under": 0.1514,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.72,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1714,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.765,
          "draw_prob": 0.1612,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6797,
          "over_prob": 0.85,
          "total_xg": 4.72,
          "under_prob": 0.15,
          "xg_diff": 1.56
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1714,
          "implied_prob": 0.0696,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1591,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "1. FC K\u00f6ln",
          "slot": "longshot"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0539,
          "implied_prob": 0.1043,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1612,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0685,
          "ev": -0.1212,
          "implied_prob": 0.8261,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6797,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1207,
          "ev": 0.1475,
          "implied_prob": 0.6443,
          "model_prob": 0.765,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": -0.0014,
          "ev": 0.05,
          "implied_prob": 0.1514,
          "model_prob": 0.15,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388606,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1714,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1591,
        "draw": 0.1612,
        "home": 0.6797
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "1. FC K\u00f6ln",
        "home": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.112837,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1475,
        "implied_prob": 0.6443,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.765,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 4
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388606,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:29:05.146552+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Bundesliga BundesligaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Bayern München 34 28 5 1 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 22 7 5 73
3 RB Leipzig 34 20 5 9 65
4 VfB Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 59
7 SC Freiburg 34 13 8 13 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11 11 12 44
9 FC Augsburg 34 12 7 15 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 34 10 10 14 40
11 Union Berlin 34 10 9 15 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 9 11 14 38
13 Hamburger SV 34 9 11 14 38
14 1. FC Köln 34 7 11 16 32
15 Werder Bremen 34 8 8 18 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 26
18 FC St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 26
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 34 122 36 +86 89
2 VfB Stuttgart 34 71 49 +22 62
3 Borussia Dortmund 34 70 34 +36 73
4 Bayer Leverkusen 34 68 47 +21 59
5 RB Leipzig 34 66 47 +19 65
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 65 52 +13 61
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 61 65 -4 44
8 SC Freiburg 34 51 57 -6 47
9 1. FC Köln 34 49 63 -14 32
10 FC Augsburg 34 45 61 -16 43
11 VfL Wolfsburg 34 45 69 -24 29
12 FSV Mainz 05 34 44 53 -9 40
13 Union Berlin 34 44 58 -14 39
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42 53 -11 38
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 41 72 -31 26
16 Hamburger SV 34 40 54 -14 38
17 Werder Bremen 34 37 60 -23 32
18 FC St. Pauli 34 29 60 -31 26
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 34 97.2 37.9 +59.3 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 63.4 38.9 +24.5 73
3 Bayer Leverkusen 34 64.0 44.8 +19.2 59
4 RB Leipzig 34 66.3 50.2 +16.1 65
5 VfB Stuttgart 34 60.1 49.8 +10.3 62
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 55.1 51.4 +3.7 61
7 SC Freiburg 34 48.6 47.8 +0.8 47
8 FSV Mainz 05 34 52.9 54.6 -1.7 40
9 1. FC Köln 34 50.9 54.9 -4.0 32
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 45.4 50.1 -4.7 44
11 Union Berlin 34 44.9 52.2 -7.3 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42.7 52.5 -9.8 38
13 Werder Bremen 34 40.4 54.3 -13.9 32
14 VfL Wolfsburg 34 47.1 61.8 -14.7 29
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 47.5 63.4 -15.9 26
16 FC Augsburg 34 45.2 62.6 -17.4 43
17 Hamburger SV 34 38.3 56.9 -18.6 38
18 FC St. Pauli 34 30.5 56.2 -25.7 26