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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tabor Sežana Tabor Sežana ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1c4aa5c76f7bbc3756a0980b42e52edfc72d01b0e2e13958735e4e4f8535906b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Rudar",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Rudar"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Tabor Se\u017eana",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0335,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4512,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 72.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 79.3,
"no_prob": 42.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.4,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Tabor Se\u017eana or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Tabor Se\u017eana or Rudar",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rudar",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Rudar",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Rudar",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Tabor Se\u017eana",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.12,
"gap_pp": -3.35,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.76,
"gap_pp": 0.91,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.13,
"gap_pp": 2.44,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.45,
"gap_pp": -6.25,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.55,
"gap_pp": 6.25,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.97,
"early": 1.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.12,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.76,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.76,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.95,
"early": 2.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.13,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.45,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.02,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.55,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1228,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0723,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10215.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0628,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.3,
"text": "-6.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0701,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0628,
"no_prob": 42.6,
"sort_key": 1784.3,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 57.4
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1488,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.9,
"text": "-14.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4512,
"max_ev": -0.0801,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Tabor Se\u017eana",
"sort_key": 1779.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4361,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4361.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rudar",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/si.svg",
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"fixture_id": 1388307,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 4362,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4362.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tabor Se\u017eana",
"league_country": "Slovenia",
"league_id": 374,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/374.webp",
"league_name": "2. SNL",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4335,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.3013,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3118
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.2476,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2503
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5699,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1488,
"implied_prob": 0.4512,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4321
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.0043,
"edge_yes": 0.0043,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0628,
"ev_yes": -0.0701,
"implied_no": 0.4303,
"implied_yes": 0.5697,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.82,
"best_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": -0.0498,
"edge_under": 0.0498,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1228,
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"implied_over": 0.5318,
"implied_under": 0.4682,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0723,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.574,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1488,
"implied_prob": 0.4512,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tabor Se\u017eana"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.0628,
"implied_prob": 0.4303,
"model_prob": 0.426,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0498,
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4682,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1388307,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0723,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rudar",
"home": "Tabor Se\u017eana"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037451,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4682,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1388307,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:54:42.503871+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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2. SNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 2 | Nafta | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 3 | Triglav | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 4 | Beltinci | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 5 | Tabor Sežana | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 6 | Bistrica | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | Dravinja | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 8 | Rudar | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 9 | Bilje | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Dekani | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 11 | Slovan Ljubljana | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 12 | Krka | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 29 |
| 13 | Ilirija | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 27 |
| 14 | Krško | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 15 | Gorica | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 22 |
| 16 | Jesenice | 30 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Triglav | 30 | 72 | 28 | +44 | 64 |
| 2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 30 | 70 | 26 | +44 | 75 |
| 3 | Nafta | 30 | 65 | 23 | +42 | 75 |
| 4 | Beltinci | 30 | 55 | 25 | +30 | 60 |
| 5 | Bistrica | 30 | 50 | 36 | +14 | 45 |
| 6 | Rudar | 30 | 46 | 39 | +7 | 37 |
| 7 | Dekani | 30 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 33 |
| 8 | Ilirija | 30 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 27 |
| 9 | Tabor Sežana | 30 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 50 |
| 10 | Dravinja | 30 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 | Krka | 30 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 29 |
| 12 | Slovan Ljubljana | 30 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 32 |
| 13 | Gorica | 30 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Bilje | 30 | 27 | 47 | -20 | 34 |
| 15 | Jesenice | 30 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 18 |
| 16 | Krško | 30 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 26 |
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