Paris FC vs Paris Saint-Germain Statistics & Analysis

May 17, 2026 - 19:00

2 0.87

1 2.36

xG Accuracy: 50%

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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
1X2 Paris Saint-Germain Paris FC ✖ Incorrecto
Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-1 2-1 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1772776

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Paris FC win · Paris FC 2–1 Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Paris Saint-Germain (1X2),Menos de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Paris Saint-Germain (1X2) en unos 10.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado	Modelo %	Implícita cierre %	Brecha (pp)
Paris FC (1X2)	11.1	20.0	-8.9
Dibujar (1X2)	19.5	20.8	-1.3
Paris Saint-Germain (1X2)	69.5	59.2	+10.2
Más de 2,5 goles	62.6	68.7	-6.1
Menos de 2,5 goles	37.4	31.3	+6.1

Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 69.5% en Paris Saint-Germain (1X2), mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 59.2%. La diferencia —unos 10.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea

Mercado	Temprano (PRE30)	Cierre (PRE1)	Δ implícita (pp)
Paris FC (1X2)	4.75	4.75	0.0
Dibujar (1X2)	4.56	4.56	0.0
Paris Saint-Germain (1X2)	1.6	1.6	0.0
Más de 2,5 goles	1.38	1.38	+0.1
Menos de 2,5 goles	3.01	3.03	-0.1

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON

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Ligue 1 — Clasificación

#	EQUIPO	PJ	G	E	P	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	34	24	4	6	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	60
5	Olympique de Marsella	34	18	5	11	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	59
7	Mónaco	34	16	6	12	54
8	Estrasburgo	34	15	8	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	45
10	Toulouse FC	33	12	8	13	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	34
16	Niza	34	7	11	16	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	17

#	EQUIPO	PJ	GF	GC	+/-	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	34	74	29	+45	76
2	Lens	34	66	35	+31	70
3	Olympique de Marsella	34	63	45	+18	59
4	Mónaco	34	60	54	+6	54
5	Rennes	34	59	50	+9	59
6	Estrasburgo	34	58	47	+11	53
7	Lyon	34	53	40	+13	60
8	Lille	34	52	37	+15	61
9	Lorient	34	48	51	-3	45
10	Toulouse FC	33	47	46	+1	44
11	Paris FC	34	47	50	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	43	55	-12	39
13	Niza	34	37	60	-23	32
14	Auxerre	34	34	44	-10	34
15	Le Havre	34	32	44	-12	35
16	Metz	34	32	76	-44	17
17	Angers	34	29	48	-19	36
18	Nantes	33	29	52	-23	23

#	EQUIPO	PJ	xG	xGC	+/-	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	34	65.0	29.8	+35.2	76
2	Lens	34	66.7	42.7	+24.0	70
3	Olympique de Marsella	34	60.2	42.1	+18.1	59
4	Lille	34	54.6	36.8	+17.8	61
5	Estrasburgo	34	53.7	45.3	+8.4	53
6	Lyon	34	51.1	43.7	+7.4	60
7	Mónaco	34	56.9	50.0	+6.9	54
8	Rennes	34	54.0	52.8	+1.2	59
9	Lorient	34	45.4	45.0	+0.4	45
10	Toulouse FC	33	42.9	42.6	+0.3	44
11	Stade Brestois 29	34	44.3	50.0	-5.7	39
12	Nantes	33	33.4	43.5	-10.1	23
13	Paris FC	34	44.4	56.1	-11.7	44
14	Le Havre	34	38.3	50.9	-12.6	35
15	Auxerre	34	35.5	48.1	-12.6	34
16	Niza	34	43.1	59.2	-16.1	32
17	Angers	34	32.4	55.4	-23.0	36
18	Metz	34	34.4	62.7	-28.3	17