Marseille vs Rennes Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.49,
      "away_win_prob": 0.249,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2261,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.02,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.42,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.9,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.19,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5249,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Marseille or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Marseille",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Marseille"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.49,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Marseille",
      "confidence": 52.6,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Marseille",
        "edge": 0.0611,
        "edge_gap": 0.2772,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4645,
        "model_prob": 0.5256,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 24.8,
          "draw": 22.6,
          "home": 52.6
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Marseille"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.05
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.05,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Marseille Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.15,
        "market_odds": 2.05,
        "model_odds": 1.9,
        "overround": 5.0,
        "prob_edge": 3.9,
        "value_pct": 7.9,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 77.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 88.8,
        "no_prob": 30.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 69.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 69.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.49,
        "home_expected": 2.19,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Marseille or Draw",
            "prob": 75.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Marseille or Rennes",
            "prob": 77.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Rennes",
            "prob": 47.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Marseille or Rennes",
        "pick_prob": 77.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 24.9,
        "draw_pct": 22.6,
        "home_pct": 52.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Marseille"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.68,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 71.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 71.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.68,
        "under_prob": 28.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 7.9,
        "implied_prob": 48.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Marseille Win",
        "model_prob": 52.6,
        "odds": 2.05
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Rennes",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Marseille",
      "largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 1.56,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 46.45,
          "gap_pp": 6.11,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 52.56
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.95,
          "gap_pp": -3.35,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 22.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 27.6,
          "gap_pp": -2.76,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 24.84
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 59.34,
          "gap_pp": 11.76,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 71.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 40.66,
          "gap_pp": -11.76,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 28.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.05,
          "early": 2.02,
          "implied_closing_pct": 46.45,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.61,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.06,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.67,
          "early": 3.71,
          "implied_closing_pct": 25.95,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.32,
          "implied_early_pct": 25.62,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.45,
          "early": 3.48,
          "implied_closing_pct": 27.6,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.28,
          "implied_early_pct": 27.32,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.61,
          "early": 1.56,
          "implied_closing_pct": 59.34,
          "implied_delta_pp": -1.56,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.9,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.35,
          "early": 2.43,
          "implied_closing_pct": 40.66,
          "implied_delta_pp": 1.56,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.1,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": false,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 11.8,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.19,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 1.8,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home Marseille",
      "edge": -3.0,
      "ev": -5.3,
      "probability": 52.6
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1376,
        "ev_under": -0.2862,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1376,
        "over_prob": 71.1,
        "sort_key": 10273.84,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 28.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.2325,
        "ev_yes": 0.0485,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0485,
        "no_prob": 30.1,
        "sort_key": 10043.65,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 69.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0035,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4645,
        "max_ev": 0.0035,
        "model_prob": 0.5256,
        "side_label": "Marseille",
        "sort_key": 5202.8,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 94,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/94.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Rennes",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
      "country_name": "France",
      "fixture_id": 1387999,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 81,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/81.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Marseille",
      "league_country": "France",
      "league_id": 61,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
      "league_name": "Ligue 1",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2876,
            "best_odd": 3.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0079,
            "ev": -0.0751,
            "implied_prob": 0.276,
            "model_prob": 0.2484,
            "p_final": 0.2681
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2849,
            "best_odd": 3.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0096,
            "ev": -0.0828,
            "implied_prob": 0.2595,
            "model_prob": 0.2259,
            "p_final": 0.2499
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4088,
            "best_odd": 2.05,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.025,
            "ev": 0.0035,
            "implied_prob": 0.4645,
            "model_prob": 0.5256,
            "p_final": 0.4895
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.55,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": -0.0733,
          "edge_yes": 0.0733,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2325,
          "ev_yes": 0.0485,
          "implied_no": 0.3743,
          "implied_yes": 0.6257,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.6,
          "best_under_odd": 2.47,
          "edge_over": 0.1063,
          "edge_under": -0.1063,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1376,
          "ev_under": -0.2862,
          "implied_over": 0.6047,
          "implied_under": 0.3953,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.68,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1376,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.699,
          "draw_prob": 0.2259,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5256,
          "over_prob": 0.711,
          "total_xg": 3.68,
          "under_prob": 0.289,
          "xg_diff": 0.7
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.025,
          "ev": 0.0035,
          "implied_prob": 0.4645,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5256,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Marseille"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0733,
          "ev": 0.0485,
          "implied_prob": 0.6257,
          "model_prob": 0.699,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1063,
          "ev": 0.1376,
          "implied_prob": 0.6047,
          "model_prob": 0.711,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1387999,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1376,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2484,
        "draw": 0.2259,
        "home": 0.5256
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Rennes",
        "home": "Marseille"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.122292,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1376,
        "implied_prob": 0.6047,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.711,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1387999,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T18:59:09.731533+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}