Estadísticas / Fútbol / Francia. Ligue 1 / Estrasburgo vs Toulouse FC

Estrasburgo vs Toulouse FC Statistics & Analysis

Estrasburgo Estrasburgo
May 03, 2026 - 15:15
1 1.78
2 1.09
xG Accuracy: 63%
Toulouse FC Toulouse FC
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 Estrasburgo Toulouse FC ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2341679

Closing Odds 3.05
AI Fair Odds 1.92
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Toulouse FC win · Estrasburgo 1–2 Toulouse FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 52.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Estrasburgo (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Estrasburgo (1X2) en unos 20.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Estrasburgo (1X2) 52.1 31.9 +20.2
Dibujar (1X2) 26.2 27.2 -1.0
Toulouse FC (1X2) 21.7 40.9 -19.2
Más de 2,5 goles 54.7 53.2 +1.5
Menos de 2,5 goles 45.3 46.8 -1.5
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 52.1% en Estrasburgo (1X2), mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 31.9%. La diferencia —unos 20.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Estrasburgo (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.58 3.58 0.0
Toulouse FC (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 1.82 1.82 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 2.07 2.07 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Paris Saint-Germain 34 24 4 6 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 60
5 Olympique de Marsella 34 18 5 11 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59
7 Mónaco 34 16 6 12 54
8 Estrasburgo 34 15 8 11 53
9 Lorient 34 11 12 11 45
10 Toulouse FC 33 12 8 13 44
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 44
12 Stade Brestois 29 34 10 9 15 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34
16 Niza 34 7 11 16 32
17 Nantes 33 5 8 20 23
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 17
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Paris Saint-Germain 34 74 29 +45 76
2 Lens 34 66 35 +31 70
3 Olympique de Marsella 34 63 45 +18 59
4 Mónaco 34 60 54 +6 54
5 Rennes 34 59 50 +9 59
6 Estrasburgo 34 58 47 +11 53
7 Lyon 34 53 40 +13 60
8 Lille 34 52 37 +15 61
9 Lorient 34 48 51 -3 45
10 Toulouse FC 33 47 46 +1 44
11 Paris FC 34 47 50 -3 44
12 Stade Brestois 29 34 43 55 -12 39
13 Niza 34 37 60 -23 32
14 Auxerre 34 34 44 -10 34
15 Le Havre 34 32 44 -12 35
16 Metz 34 32 76 -44 17
17 Angers 34 29 48 -19 36
18 Nantes 33 29 52 -23 23
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Paris Saint-Germain 34 65.0 29.8 +35.2 76
2 Lens 34 66.7 42.7 +24.0 70
3 Olympique de Marsella 34 60.2 42.1 +18.1 59
4 Lille 34 54.6 36.8 +17.8 61
5 Estrasburgo 34 53.7 45.3 +8.4 53
6 Lyon 34 51.1 43.7 +7.4 60
7 Mónaco 34 56.9 50.0 +6.9 54
8 Rennes 34 54.0 52.8 +1.2 59
9 Lorient 34 45.4 45.0 +0.4 45
10 Toulouse FC 33 42.9 42.6 +0.3 44
11 Stade Brestois 29 34 44.3 50.0 -5.7 39
12 Nantes 33 33.4 43.5 -10.1 23
13 Paris FC 34 44.4 56.1 -11.7 44
14 Le Havre 34 38.3 50.9 -12.6 35
15 Auxerre 34 35.5 48.1 -12.6 34
16 Niza 34 43.1 59.2 -16.1 32
17 Angers 34 32.4 55.4 -23.0 36
18 Metz 34 34.4 62.7 -28.3 17