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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 2-0 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "ef681d81232249e80785882892ad0d5fbe341269cc4b391d385da808e135c374",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.76,
"away_win_prob": 0.1819,
"btts_no_prob": 0.578,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.422,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3011,
"fair_odds_away": 5.5,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home": 1.93,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.44,
"home_win_prob": 0.517,
"over_25_prob": 0.377,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.623
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Istra 1961",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : NK Varazdin",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Istra 1961"
},
"away_xg": 0.76,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "NK Varazdin",
"confidence": 51.7,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : NK Varazdin",
"edge": 0.1201,
"edge_gap": 0.2167,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.2,
"draw": 30.1,
"home": 51.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "NK Varazdin"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.34
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.34,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "NK Varazdin Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.52,
"market_odds": 2.34,
"model_odds": 1.93,
"overround": 7.5,
"prob_edge": 9.1,
"value_pct": 21.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 35,
"away_score_rate": 53.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 35,
"home_score_rate": 76.3,
"no_prob": 57.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.76,
"home_expected": 1.44,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 16.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "NK Varazdin or Draw",
"prob": 81.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "NK Varazdin or Istra 1961",
"prob": 69.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Istra 1961",
"prob": 48.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "NK Varazdin or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.2,
"draw_pct": 30.1,
"home_pct": 51.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "NK Varazdin"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.2,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.2,
"under_prob": 62.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.2,
"implied_prob": 42.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "NK Varazdin Win",
"model_prob": 51.8,
"odds": 2.34
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Istra 1961",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "NK Varazdin",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.74,
"gap_pp": 12.01,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 51.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.8,
"gap_pp": 3.28,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 30.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.45,
"gap_pp": -15.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.16
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.32,
"gap_pp": -17.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 37.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.68,
"gap_pp": 17.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 62.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.34,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.74,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.74,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.8,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.78,
"early": 2.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.32,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.32,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.68,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 16.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3063,
"ev_under": 0.3457,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3457,
"over_prob": 37.7,
"sort_key": 10461.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 62.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3583,
"ev_yes": -0.3037,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3583,
"no_prob": 57.8,
"sort_key": 10322.47,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.2
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0337,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"max_ev": 0.0337,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"side_label": "NK Varazdin",
"sort_key": 10030.33,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 828.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 16.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1016,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1016.webp",
"away_team_name": "Istra 1961",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1384098,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 1483,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1483.webp",
"home_team_name": "NK Varazdin",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_id": 210,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
"league_name": "HNL",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3468,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.2174,
"implied_prob": 0.3345,
"model_prob": 0.1816,
"p_final": 0.2815
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0375,
"implied_prob": 0.268,
"model_prob": 0.3009,
"p_final": 0.2774
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3689,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"p_final": 0.4418
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.35,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": 0.1629,
"edge_yes": -0.1629,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3583,
"ev_yes": -0.3037,
"implied_no": 0.4151,
"implied_yes": 0.5849,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.84,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.1636,
"edge_under": 0.1636,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3063,
"ev_under": 0.3457,
"implied_over": 0.5406,
"implied_under": 0.4594,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3583,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.422,
"draw_prob": 0.3009,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5175,
"over_prob": 0.377,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"under_prob": 0.623,
"xg_diff": 0.68
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0443,
"ev": 0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "NK Varazdin"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1629,
"ev": 0.3583,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1636,
"ev": 0.3457,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1384098,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3583,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1816,
"draw": 0.3009,
"home": 0.5175
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3583,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3583,
"implied_prob": 0.4151,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Istra 1961",
"home": "NK Varazdin"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.215371,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3457,
"implied_prob": 0.4594,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1384098,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:10:17.529095+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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HNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 68 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 54 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 8 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 41 |
| 9 | NK Osijek | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 35 |
| 10 | Vukovar | 36 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 28 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 68 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 53 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 54 |
| 5 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 41 |
| 6 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 41 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 44 |
| 8 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 43 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 36 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 28 |
| 10 | NK Osijek | 36 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 35 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 69.3 | 25.5 | +43.8 | 86 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 66.5 | 36.7 | +29.8 | 68 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 50.7 | 32.0 | +18.7 | 53 |
| 4 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 38.3 | 43.4 | -5.1 | 41 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 36 | 38.2 | 43.3 | -5.1 | 35 |
| 6 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 41.0 | 46.5 | -5.5 | 44 |
| 7 | NK Varazdin | 36 | 36.8 | 42.5 | -5.7 | 54 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 35.6 | 51.7 | -16.1 | 41 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 36 | 29.1 | 54.0 | -24.9 | 28 |
| 10 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 31.4 | 61.4 | -30.0 | 43 |
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