Vukovar vs Varazdin Statistics & Analysis

May 15, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.18
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 60%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Varazdin Varazdin ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 16:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2522941

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Varazdin win · Vukovar 0–2 Varazdin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE5 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Vukovar (1X2),Dibujar (1X2),Menos de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Menos de 2,5 goles en unos 6.3 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Vukovar (1X2) 30.9 24.7 +6.2
Dibujar (1X2) 30.0 26.0 +4.0
Varazdin (1X2) 39.0 49.3 -10.2
Más de 2,5 goles 46.4 52.7 -6.3
Menos de 2,5 goles 53.6 47.3 +6.3
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 53.6% en Menos de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 47.3%. La diferencia —unos 6.3 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE5 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE5) Δ implícita (pp)
Vukovar (1X2) 3.85 3.85 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Varazdin (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 1.81 1.81 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 2.02 2.02 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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}

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Volver a Estadísticas
HNL de Croacia HNL de Croacia — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43