Vukovar vs NK Varazdin Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3903,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.56,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.33,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.23,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3098,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or NK Varazdin",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "NK Varazdin"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.35,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "NK Varazdin",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1025,
        "edge_gap": 0.081,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4929,
        "model_prob": 0.3904,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 39.0,
          "draw": 30.0,
          "home": 30.9
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.93
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.93,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "NK Varazdin Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.03,
        "market_odds": 1.93,
        "model_odds": 2.56,
        "overround": 5.1,
        "prob_edge": -12.8,
        "value_pct": -24.6,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 74.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 69.3,
        "no_prob": 47.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 53.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 53.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.35,
        "home_expected": 1.18,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.4
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.6
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Vukovar or Draw",
            "prob": 61.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Vukovar or NK Varazdin",
            "prob": 70.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 69.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Vukovar or NK Varazdin",
        "pick_prob": 70.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 39.0,
        "draw_pct": 30.0,
        "home_pct": 31.0,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "NK Varazdin"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.53,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 46.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 53.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.53,
        "under_prob": 53.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 19.4,
        "implied_prob": 26.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Vukovar Win",
        "model_prob": 31.0,
        "odds": 3.85
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "NK Varazdin",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE5",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Vukovar",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "gap_pp": 6.23,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 30.94
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 25.99,
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          "kind": "1x2_d",
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          "closing_implied_pct": 49.29,
          "gap_pp": -10.25,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 39.04
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.74,
          "gap_pp": -6.34,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 46.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.26,
          "gap_pp": 6.34,
          "kind": "ou_u",
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 3.85,
          "early": 3.85,
          "implied_closing_pct": 24.71,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 24.71,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
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        {
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.81,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.02,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.26,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.18,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.1042,
        "featured": true,
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4929,
        "max_ev": 0.0166,
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        "side_label": "NK Varazdin",
        "sort_key": 5213.28,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "yes_prob": 53.0
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        "sort_key": 818.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1483,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1483.webp",
      "away_team_name": "NK Varazdin",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
      "country_name": "Croatia",
      "fixture_id": 1384093,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 5730,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5730.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Vukovar",
      "league_country": "Croatia",
      "league_id": 210,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
      "league_name": "HNL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 1.93,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1491,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0113,
            "ev": -0.0071,
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            "model_prob": 0.3001,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 3.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0169,
            "ev": 0.0166,
            "implied_prob": 0.2471,
            "model_prob": 0.3094,
            "p_final": 0.2641
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge_no": 0.0268,
          "edge_yes": -0.0268,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0152,
          "ev_yes": -0.0831,
          "implied_no": 0.4432,
          "implied_yes": 0.5568,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.06,
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          "edge_under": 0.063,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.527,
          "implied_under": 0.473,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.53,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1042,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3904,
          "over_prob": 0.464,
          "total_xg": 2.53,
          "under_prob": 0.536,
          "xg_diff": 0.17
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        "type": "balanced",
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3904,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "NK Varazdin"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.47,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.063,
          "ev": 0.1042,
          "implied_prob": 0.473,
          "model_prob": 0.536,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1042,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3904,
        "draw": 0.3001,
        "home": 0.3094
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      "reason_codes": [
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        "variance_medium"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "NK Varazdin",
        "home": "Vukovar"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1042,
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.536,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:55:37.113339+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}