NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_win_prob": 0.6136,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2325,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.63,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.3,
      "fair_odds_home": 6.5,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.94,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1538,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Dinamo Zagreb",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "50%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "0%",
      "winner_name": "Dinamo Zagreb"
    },
    "away_xg": 2.03,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Dinamo Zagreb",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0468,
        "edge_gap": 0.381,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6603,
        "model_prob": 0.6136,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 61.4,
          "draw": 23.3,
          "home": 15.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.41
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.41,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Dinamo Zagreb Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.51,
        "market_odds": 1.41,
        "model_odds": 1.63,
        "overround": 7.4,
        "prob_edge": -9.6,
        "value_pct": -13.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 86.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 60.9,
        "no_prob": 45.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 2.03,
        "home_expected": 0.94,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.4
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.9
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          {
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            "away": 3,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-3",
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "NK Slaven Belupo or Draw",
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          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "NK Slaven Belupo or Dinamo Zagreb",
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          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Dinamo Zagreb",
        "pick_prob": 84.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 61.4,
        "draw_pct": 23.2,
        "home_pct": 15.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Dinamo Zagreb"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.97,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 57.0,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.97,
        "under_prob": 43.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 14.1,
        "implied_prob": 20.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 23.2,
        "odds": 4.92
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Dinamo Zagreb",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE5",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "NK Slaven Belupo",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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        {
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          "model_pct": 61.36
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.88,
          "gap_pp": -6.88,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 57.0
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.12,
          "gap_pp": 6.88,
          "kind": "ou_u",
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        }
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 6.19,
          "early": 6.19,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 4.92,
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        {
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        {
          "closing": 1.47,
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        {
          "closing": 2.6,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-2",
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    },
    "home_xg": 0.94,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.1309,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "tier": "best",
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        "ev_yes": -0.0786,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6603,
        "max_ev": -0.029,
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        "side_label": "Dinamo Zagreb",
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        "tier": "bad_ev"
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 620,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/620.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Dinamo Zagreb",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
      "country_name": "Croatia",
      "fixture_id": 1384092,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1018,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1018.webp",
      "home_team_name": "NK Slaven Belupo",
      "league_country": "Croatia",
      "league_id": 210,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
      "league_name": "HNL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge_no": 0.0125,
          "edge_yes": -0.0125,
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          "ev_no": -0.0153,
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          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "implied_under": 0.3661,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.97,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1309,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
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      "game_type": {
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.6136,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Dinamo Zagreb"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.6136,
        "draw": 0.2326,
        "home": 0.1539
      },
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Dinamo Zagreb",
        "home": "NK Slaven Belupo"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
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  "fixture_id": 1384092,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:55:35.585920+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}