Estadísticas / Fútbol / Croatia. HNL / Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka

Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka Statistics & Analysis

May 17, 2026 - 16:45
0 0.73
0 1.86
xG Accuracy: 49%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Rijeka Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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  "content_hash": "58c7aa8f18e198786b2d6958eb330c2aa88edd4715212d1e70b3fcbb7b9a878a",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.86,
      "away_win_prob": 0.6294,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2436,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.59,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.1,
      "fair_odds_home": 7.88,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.73,
      "home_win_prob": 0.127,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or HNK Rijeka",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : HNK Rijeka",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "HNK Rijeka"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.86,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "HNK Rijeka",
      "confidence": 62.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : HNK Rijeka",
        "edge": 0.1034,
        "edge_gap": 0.3851,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5257,
        "model_prob": 0.6291,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 62.9,
          "draw": 24.4,
          "home": 12.7
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "HNK Rijeka"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.78
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.78,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "HNK Rijeka Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.9,
        "market_odds": 1.78,
        "model_odds": 1.59,
        "overround": 6.9,
        "prob_edge": 6.7,
        "value_pct": 11.9,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 84.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 11,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 51.8,
        "no_prob": 54.9,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 45.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.86,
        "home_expected": 0.73,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 14.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 13.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.2
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-3",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Istra 1961 or Draw",
            "prob": 37.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Istra 1961 or HNK Rijeka",
            "prob": 75.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or HNK Rijeka",
            "prob": 87.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or HNK Rijeka",
        "pick_prob": 87.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 62.9,
        "draw_pct": 24.4,
        "home_pct": 12.7,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "HNK Rijeka"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.59,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 47.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 52.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.59,
        "under_prob": 52.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 12.0,
        "implied_prob": 56.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "HNK Rijeka Win",
        "model_prob": 62.9,
        "odds": 1.78
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "HNK Rijeka",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE5",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Istra 1961",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 20.84,
          "gap_pp": -8.15,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 12.69
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 26.59,
          "gap_pp": -2.19,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 24.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.57,
          "gap_pp": 10.34,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 62.91
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.51,
          "gap_pp": 0.39,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 47.9
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 52.49,
          "gap_pp": -0.39,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 52.1
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 4.49,
          "early": 4.49,
          "implied_closing_pct": 20.84,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 20.84,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.52,
          "early": 3.52,
          "implied_closing_pct": 26.59,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 26.59,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.78,
          "early": 1.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 52.57,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 52.57,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.0,
          "early": 2.0,
          "implied_closing_pct": 47.51,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.51,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.81,
          "early": 1.81,
          "implied_closing_pct": 52.49,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 52.49,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 10.3,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 14.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.73,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0431,
        "ev_yes": -0.098,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0431,
        "no_prob": 54.9,
        "sort_key": 10038.79,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 45.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0291,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5257,
        "max_ev": 0.0291,
        "model_prob": 0.6291,
        "side_label": "HNK Rijeka",
        "sort_key": 5223.28,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0181,
        "ev_under": -0.0361,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0181,
        "over_prob": 47.9,
        "sort_key": 1795.475,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 52.1,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 822.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
        "top_prob": 14.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 561,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/561.webp",
      "away_team_name": "HNK Rijeka",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
      "country_name": "Croatia",
      "fixture_id": 1384090,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1016,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1016.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Istra 1961",
      "league_country": "Croatia",
      "league_id": 210,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
      "league_name": "HNL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.507,
            "best_odd": 1.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0524,
            "ev": 0.0291,
            "implied_prob": 0.5257,
            "model_prob": 0.6291,
            "p_final": 0.5781
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2902,
            "best_odd": 3.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0064,
            "ev": -0.0866,
            "implied_prob": 0.2659,
            "model_prob": 0.244,
            "p_final": 0.2595
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1756,
            "best_odd": 4.49,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0143,
            "ev": -0.1284,
            "implied_prob": 0.2084,
            "model_prob": 0.1269,
            "p_final": 0.1941
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.9,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.0,
          "edge_no": 0.05,
          "edge_yes": -0.05,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0431,
          "ev_yes": -0.098,
          "implied_no": 0.499,
          "implied_yes": 0.501,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.05,
          "best_under_odd": 1.85,
          "edge_over": 0.0043,
          "edge_under": -0.0043,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0181,
          "ev_under": -0.0361,
          "implied_over": 0.4747,
          "implied_under": 0.5253,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.59,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0431,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.451,
          "draw_prob": 0.244,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6291,
          "over_prob": 0.479,
          "total_xg": 2.59,
          "under_prob": 0.521,
          "xg_diff": 1.13
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0431,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.499,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.549,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0524,
          "ev": 0.0291,
          "implied_prob": 0.5257,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6291,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "HNK Rijeka"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.05,
          "ev": 0.0431,
          "implied_prob": 0.499,
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0043,
          "ev": -0.0181,
          "implied_prob": 0.4747,
          "model_prob": 0.479,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1384090,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0431,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.6291,
        "draw": 0.244,
        "home": 0.1269
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "HNK Rijeka",
        "home": "Istra 1961"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1384090,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:55:31.116572+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
HNL HNLClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 34 26 4 4 82
2 HNK Hajduk Split 35 19 8 8 65
3 NK Varazdin 35 14 9 12 51
4 HNK Rijeka 34 13 10 11 49
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 35 10 13 12 43
6 Istra 1961 34 12 6 16 42
7 HNK Gorica 35 11 8 16 41
8 NK Slaven Belupo 34 10 11 13 41
9 NK Osijek 35 7 11 17 32
10 Vukovar 35 6 10 19 28
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 34 89 27 +62 82
2 HNK Hajduk Split 35 55 33 +22 65
3 HNK Rijeka 34 47 36 +11 49
4 NK Varazdin 35 45 46 -1 51
5 NK Slaven Belupo 34 45 55 -10 41
6 HNK Gorica 35 40 46 -6 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 35 40 52 -12 43
8 Istra 1961 34 39 48 -9 42
9 Vukovar 35 34 67 -33 28
10 NK Osijek 35 25 49 -24 32
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 34 68.5 24.6 +43.9 82
2 HNK Hajduk Split 35 63.1 34.8 +28.3 65
3 HNK Rijeka 34 49.3 31.9 +17.4 49
4 HNK Gorica 35 38.1 42.0 -3.9 41
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 35 40.1 45.6 -5.5 43
6 NK Osijek 35 35.9 42.9 -7.0 32
7 NK Varazdin 35 33.9 42.1 -8.2 51
8 NK Slaven Belupo 34 35.2 49.3 -14.1 41
9 Vukovar 35 27.2 50.6 -23.4 28
10 Istra 1961 34 31.1 58.5 -27.4 42