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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 HNK Rijeka Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "58c7aa8f18e198786b2d6958eb330c2aa88edd4715212d1e70b3fcbb7b9a878a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.86,
"away_win_prob": 0.6294,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2436,
"fair_odds_away": 1.59,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.1,
"fair_odds_home": 7.88,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.73,
"home_win_prob": 0.127,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or HNK Rijeka",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : HNK Rijeka",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"away_xg": 1.86,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "HNK Rijeka",
"confidence": 62.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : HNK Rijeka",
"edge": 0.1034,
"edge_gap": 0.3851,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.6291,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 62.9,
"draw": 24.4,
"home": 12.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.78
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.78,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "HNK Rijeka Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.9,
"market_odds": 1.78,
"model_odds": 1.59,
"overround": 6.9,
"prob_edge": 6.7,
"value_pct": 11.9,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 12,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 34,
"away_score_rate": 84.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 34,
"home_score_rate": 51.8,
"no_prob": 54.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 45.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.86,
"home_expected": 0.73,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Istra 1961 or Draw",
"prob": 37.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Istra 1961 or HNK Rijeka",
"prob": 75.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or HNK Rijeka",
"prob": 87.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or HNK Rijeka",
"pick_prob": 87.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 62.9,
"draw_pct": 24.4,
"home_pct": 12.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.59,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 47.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.59,
"under_prob": 52.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.0,
"implied_prob": 56.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "HNK Rijeka Win",
"model_prob": 62.9,
"odds": 1.78
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "HNK Rijeka",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Istra 1961",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.84,
"gap_pp": -8.15,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 12.69
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.59,
"gap_pp": -2.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.57,
"gap_pp": 10.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 62.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.51,
"gap_pp": 0.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 47.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.49,
"gap_pp": -0.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 52.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.49,
"early": 4.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 3.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.59,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.57,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.57,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.51,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.49,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.49,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 14.0
}
},
"home_xg": 0.73,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0431,
"ev_yes": -0.098,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0431,
"no_prob": 54.9,
"sort_key": 10038.79,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 45.1
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0291,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"max_ev": 0.0291,
"model_prob": 0.6291,
"side_label": "HNK Rijeka",
"sort_key": 5223.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0181,
"ev_under": -0.0361,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0181,
"over_prob": 47.9,
"sort_key": 1795.475,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 52.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 822.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 14.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 561,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/561.webp",
"away_team_name": "HNK Rijeka",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1384090,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 1016,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1016.webp",
"home_team_name": "Istra 1961",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_id": 210,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
"league_name": "HNL",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.507,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"model_prob": 0.6291,
"p_final": 0.5781
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2902,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0866,
"implied_prob": 0.2659,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.2595
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1756,
"best_odd": 4.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.2084,
"model_prob": 0.1269,
"p_final": 0.1941
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"edge_no": 0.05,
"edge_yes": -0.05,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0431,
"ev_yes": -0.098,
"implied_no": 0.499,
"implied_yes": 0.501,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.05,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": 0.0043,
"edge_under": -0.0043,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0181,
"ev_under": -0.0361,
"implied_over": 0.4747,
"implied_under": 0.5253,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0431,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.451,
"draw_prob": 0.244,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6291,
"over_prob": 0.479,
"total_xg": 2.59,
"under_prob": 0.521,
"xg_diff": 1.13
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0431,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.499,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.549,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.5257,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.6291,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "HNK Rijeka"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.05,
"ev": 0.0431,
"implied_prob": 0.499,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.4747,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1384090,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0431,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6291,
"draw": 0.244,
"home": 0.1269
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "HNK Rijeka",
"home": "Istra 1961"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1384090,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:55:31.116572+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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HNL — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 82 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 35 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 65 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 49 |
| 5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | HNK Gorica | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 41 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | NK Osijek | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 32 |
| 10 | Vukovar | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 34 | 89 | 27 | +62 | 82 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 35 | 55 | 33 | +22 | 65 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 34 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 35 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 51 |
| 5 | NK Slaven Belupo | 34 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 41 |
| 6 | HNK Gorica | 35 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 35 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 43 |
| 8 | Istra 1961 | 34 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 35 | 34 | 67 | -33 | 28 |
| 10 | NK Osijek | 35 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 34 | 68.5 | 24.6 | +43.9 | 82 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 35 | 63.1 | 34.8 | +28.3 | 65 |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 34 | 49.3 | 31.9 | +17.4 | 49 |
| 4 | HNK Gorica | 35 | 38.1 | 42.0 | -3.9 | 41 |
| 5 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 35 | 40.1 | 45.6 | -5.5 | 43 |
| 6 | NK Osijek | 35 | 35.9 | 42.9 | -7.0 | 32 |
| 7 | NK Varazdin | 35 | 33.9 | 42.1 | -8.2 | 51 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 34 | 35.2 | 49.3 | -14.1 | 41 |
| 9 | Vukovar | 35 | 27.2 | 50.6 | -23.4 | 28 |
| 10 | Istra 1961 | 34 | 31.1 | 58.5 | -27.4 | 42 |